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GDP is measured in $$ dollar terms. It will be very hard to go negative with inflation being high. Same goes for corporate sales.
Parking my cash earning 4.25% risk free for now.
Thank you for the good information. But times are not any more difficult now than they were for the people in the 1980s recovering from the shock of an unpegged US Dollar and dealing with double-digit interest rates. The middle-class people of the country always hold the losing end of the stick. Honestly, the act of presenting that the Federal Reserve as anything more than an outfit that protects the best interest of the wealthy and powerful is simply a charade. No matter what, the system just keeps getting more unfair as the people are always being tapped to save the wealthy from the consequences of their bad decisions.
The Fed is a dying organization, because the dollar has been losing power for too long. Rather than focus on a dying organization to guide my decision-making process, I've been doing what's already worked for me in the past - focus on Bitcoin, because the monetary policy is the most predictable economic policy in the world. As a result, the market is relatively predictable. I've been buying bitcoin.
We are at the "I can't take it any more" moment. People do want to lead their lives. But are overwhelmed by their neighbors constant loud music.
When you don't know what to do, do nothing. Wait for someone else to stand up and lead the way out. I feel like the last 20 years has been leaders saying we need to fundamentally change this or that, and then failing at this or that.
The US natural advantage is our ability to innovate. To create productivity. More productivity always improves the long run. An economy with high total factor productivity is resiliant against these shocks. We do not need government to lead that effort.
We probably do need to explain the possibility of the gains. The barrier is not more invention, but the diffusion of that innovation in the market. The adoption of new technology. If we had technology to avoid getting diabetes we save 1.9T each year from the related costs of metabolic disease.
The rate of that diffusion has less to do with scale and more to do with understanding how the new thing is better than the old thing.