I also wonder if you are underplaying investor sentiment shifts. Investors are concerned about uncertainty caused by Trump’s tariffs, pressure on allies and opening up relations with Russia potentially triggering economic downturns or even recessionary conditions. This anxiety has led to significant sell-offs in tech stocks that previously drove market gains
In other words, if you put your political bias aside:
1) Trump wants to lower tariffs on US goods by temporarily raising tariffs to get rid of unfair trade practices, like the huge tariffs Canada added during Biden's admin (250%+ tariffs on US dairy, for example). He has made it clear he wants fair tariffs...if Canada drops theirs to zero and helps stop the fentanyl/human trafficking, he will lower tariffs to zero as well.
2) Trump wants peace, instead of an endless proxy war with Russia, which could easily spiral into WW3.
3) Trumps wants lower taxes.
4) Trumps wants legitimate regulations, not politically driven regs which harm the economy.
5) Trump wants to end the billions in fraud and waste in the government so that our taxes dollars are available for benefits and other important programs, without having to spend more.
6) Trump wants to give citizens more economic freedom by ending the lawfare of DEI and anti-crypto policies, which only hurt the economy.
7) Trump wants to attract more investment in the US, thus bringing jobs and wealth here.
All of this is bullish, and anyone who disagrees is a just a dishonest political hack.
1) Trump wants to lower tariffs on US goods by temporarily raising tariffs...
Regarding the claim about 250%+ tariffs on US dairy: These high tariffs (ranging from 200-300%) do exist, but they only apply after the US exceeds specific tariff-free quotas negotiated under the USMCA (which Trump himself negotiated). Then according to the International Dairy Foods Association, the US has not reached Canada's zero-tariff maximum in any dairy category, meaning these high tariffs are not currently being applied. Also, Canada did not increase its dairy tariffs during President Biden's administration. The tariff rates have remained consistent since before Trump's first term.
Regarding fentanyl trafficking from Canada: Less than 1% of fentanyl entering the US comes from Canada (43 pounds from Canada vs. 21,000+ pounds from the south.
Canada's Overall Tariff Profile: Trump's claim Canada is "one of the highest tariffing nations," However, the World Bank data indicates that Canada had an average tariff rate of 1.37% in 2022, which is actually lower than the United States' rate of 1.49% for the same period. Also, the dairy sector is an exception to Canada's generally low-tariff trade policy, not the rule. The US Department of Agriculture states that "almost all" agricultural exports between the US and Canada were free of tariffs or quotas under NAFTA, which continued under the USMCA.
2) Trump wants peace, instead of an endless proxy war with Russia, which could easily spiral into WW3.
- Tariffs are a tax. They are estimated to cost the typical American household between $1,200 to $2,000 annually according to the Yale Budget Lab.
4) Trumps wants legitimate regulations, not politically driven regs which harm the economy.
- Like terminating hundreds of NOAA employees and canceling leases at weather forecasting centers? no, that's not politically driven. :-) I could write a book in response to this one...
5) Trump wants to end the billions in fraud and waste in the government so that our taxes dollars are available for benefits and other important programs, without having to spend more.
- I am all for getting rid of fraud. The US budget for Fiscal Year 2025 is set at $1.600 trillion and according to the GAO, we lose between $233 billion & $521 billion annually to fraud. This represents 14.6% to 32.6% of the discretionary budget. The higher number due to how the president mismanaged COVID payments (how much did PPP did Jared get again?) But let's focus our effort on where the problem is according to the GAO vs. cutting with a political eye:
- Medicaid: $50.3 billion in improper payments
- Medicare Fee-for-Service: $31 billion in improper payments
- Medicare Advantage: $17 billion in improper payments
- Department of the Treasury's Earned Income Tax Credit: $22 billion in improper payments
6) Trump wants to give citizens more economic freedom by ending the lawfare of DEI and anti-crypto policies, which only hurt the economy.
- agree, but implementation matters here.
7) Trump wants to attract more investment in the US, thus bringing jobs and wealth here.
The data clearly shows that the market is not experiencing a true crash, but rather a typical period of volatility that is well within historical norms.
Given the resilience of major indexes and strong performance of alternative assets like Bitcoin and gold, it's likely that long-term investors will continue to see gains as the market stabilizes and economic conditions improve.
When one makes assumptions they make asses out of themselves. I’m an independent because both parties are horrible. But putting a convicted felon, woman abuser and fraudster in the White House is embarrassing. Some get what they deserve. God help the rest of us.
LOL. Your party lied to everyone for 4 years about how brilliant and healthy Biden was, and despite that, you are still loyal. Ridiculous. That should have been enough for you to realize that Democrats can't be trusted. Meanwhile, Trump is the most open and honest President in 100 years, always talking to reporter and holding press conferences everyday (remember Biden was hidden by his handlers from the press for months at a time).
Democrsts are lying criminal fascists. We now know why they always want higher taxes: they take our money, give it to USAID et al, which then give it to Democrat NGOs, which then funnel money to ActBlue etc., which then donates the money back to Democrat politicians and paid protestors!
The reality is Democrats support comes from those who are fascists, those who hate everyone with more money than them, those who are ignorant, or those how have mental health problems.
Well yes, the S&P500 has dropped slightly more than 10% from the Feb 19 all-time high. This is very similar to the 12% haircut that 2022 started with. Different tactical reasons, same base reason of "uncertainty." Corrections like this can resolve either way, like the 2014 Ebola which resolved to the upside, or the 2022 inflation scare which resolved lower. It all depends on the next bounce and if certainty is restored by then.
Good points about not being in a crash yet, but I think the general narrative is not that we’re in a crash today, rather the probability is increasing that we will see one very soon. And enter a recession. Just because it hasn’t dropped 10% yet doesn’t mean the odds of that happening anytime soon are not there. In short, I think it’s fair to still be bearish right now.
Pomp, I love the way you broke down the current market situation. It's easy to get caught up in the doom and gloom of mainstream media, but the data shows a much different picture. The S&P 500 being flat and Bitcoin and gold performing well over the last six months is a strong reminder that volatility doesn't equal a crash. It's also critical to challenge the traditional data sources, as you've pointed out. I agree that the Fed should cut rates, and the current inflation metrics are misleading. Great insights!
I enjoy reading your newsletter, but I’ve always had this nagging feeling that you fail to address the bigger picture. A couple weeks ago you wrote about how you had changed your mind about tariffs. The reasoning seemed to be “this is what happed last time, so this is what will happen this time”. Donald Trump is random, impulsive, unsteady, unreliable, vindictive and of course, obsessed with Donald Trump, person. Throw your 6 month stock market chart out the window. We’re now dealing with a superficial idiot. I am as conservative as it gets. The markets never lie. Thank god I’m 80% cash right now. I’m going to do very well with this idiot in charge.
Trump is anything but an idiot. He has a solid long term plan that may, but not definitely, will include some short term pain. The economy has been juiced by $2T deficits that drove up stocks and inflation and made the ruling class rich while the working class gets crushed (I include anyone making under $400K and not in government working class).
Trump is trying to cut government and deficits, remove illegals and bring back manufacturing to America. All to benefit the working class. We may have lower overall growth as we have negative government growth, but the private sector will thrive.
I'm betting on this administration to succeed. Congress is the wildcard because they are part of that ruling class I talked about. The courts too.
I also wonder if you are underplaying investor sentiment shifts. Investors are concerned about uncertainty caused by Trump’s tariffs, pressure on allies and opening up relations with Russia potentially triggering economic downturns or even recessionary conditions. This anxiety has led to significant sell-offs in tech stocks that previously drove market gains
In other words, if you put your political bias aside:
1) Trump wants to lower tariffs on US goods by temporarily raising tariffs to get rid of unfair trade practices, like the huge tariffs Canada added during Biden's admin (250%+ tariffs on US dairy, for example). He has made it clear he wants fair tariffs...if Canada drops theirs to zero and helps stop the fentanyl/human trafficking, he will lower tariffs to zero as well.
2) Trump wants peace, instead of an endless proxy war with Russia, which could easily spiral into WW3.
3) Trumps wants lower taxes.
4) Trumps wants legitimate regulations, not politically driven regs which harm the economy.
5) Trump wants to end the billions in fraud and waste in the government so that our taxes dollars are available for benefits and other important programs, without having to spend more.
6) Trump wants to give citizens more economic freedom by ending the lawfare of DEI and anti-crypto policies, which only hurt the economy.
7) Trump wants to attract more investment in the US, thus bringing jobs and wealth here.
All of this is bullish, and anyone who disagrees is a just a dishonest political hack.
1) Trump wants to lower tariffs on US goods by temporarily raising tariffs...
Regarding the claim about 250%+ tariffs on US dairy: These high tariffs (ranging from 200-300%) do exist, but they only apply after the US exceeds specific tariff-free quotas negotiated under the USMCA (which Trump himself negotiated). Then according to the International Dairy Foods Association, the US has not reached Canada's zero-tariff maximum in any dairy category, meaning these high tariffs are not currently being applied. Also, Canada did not increase its dairy tariffs during President Biden's administration. The tariff rates have remained consistent since before Trump's first term.
Regarding fentanyl trafficking from Canada: Less than 1% of fentanyl entering the US comes from Canada (43 pounds from Canada vs. 21,000+ pounds from the south.
Canada's Overall Tariff Profile: Trump's claim Canada is "one of the highest tariffing nations," However, the World Bank data indicates that Canada had an average tariff rate of 1.37% in 2022, which is actually lower than the United States' rate of 1.49% for the same period. Also, the dairy sector is an exception to Canada's generally low-tariff trade policy, not the rule. The US Department of Agriculture states that "almost all" agricultural exports between the US and Canada were free of tariffs or quotas under NAFTA, which continued under the USMCA.
2) Trump wants peace, instead of an endless proxy war with Russia, which could easily spiral into WW3.
- then why Panama https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-asks-military-for-plans-to-take-panama-canal-by-force
3) Trumps wants lower taxes.
- Tariffs are a tax. They are estimated to cost the typical American household between $1,200 to $2,000 annually according to the Yale Budget Lab.
4) Trumps wants legitimate regulations, not politically driven regs which harm the economy.
- Like terminating hundreds of NOAA employees and canceling leases at weather forecasting centers? no, that's not politically driven. :-) I could write a book in response to this one...
5) Trump wants to end the billions in fraud and waste in the government so that our taxes dollars are available for benefits and other important programs, without having to spend more.
- I am all for getting rid of fraud. The US budget for Fiscal Year 2025 is set at $1.600 trillion and according to the GAO, we lose between $233 billion & $521 billion annually to fraud. This represents 14.6% to 32.6% of the discretionary budget. The higher number due to how the president mismanaged COVID payments (how much did PPP did Jared get again?) But let's focus our effort on where the problem is according to the GAO vs. cutting with a political eye:
- Medicaid: $50.3 billion in improper payments
- Medicare Fee-for-Service: $31 billion in improper payments
- Medicare Advantage: $17 billion in improper payments
- Department of the Treasury's Earned Income Tax Credit: $22 billion in improper payments
6) Trump wants to give citizens more economic freedom by ending the lawfare of DEI and anti-crypto policies, which only hurt the economy.
- agree, but implementation matters here.
7) Trump wants to attract more investment in the US, thus bringing jobs and wealth here.
- US employers announced over 172,000 job cuts in February alone—a 245% increase from the previous month https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2025/3/11/even-as-us-slashes-jobs-it-is-the-calm-before-the-storm-economists-warn
- The retail sector experienced a 572% increase in job cuts compared to the same period last year
- Major tech companies have implemented layoffs
- The economy added only 151,000 jobs in February, falling short of economists' forecasts
The data clearly shows that the market is not experiencing a true crash, but rather a typical period of volatility that is well within historical norms.
Given the resilience of major indexes and strong performance of alternative assets like Bitcoin and gold, it's likely that long-term investors will continue to see gains as the market stabilizes and economic conditions improve.
The last guy you should believe and trust is the one using the White House to help sell Teslas! And the people who believe him.
When one makes assumptions they make asses out of themselves. I’m an independent because both parties are horrible. But putting a convicted felon, woman abuser and fraudster in the White House is embarrassing. Some get what they deserve. God help the rest of us.
LOL. Your party lied to everyone for 4 years about how brilliant and healthy Biden was, and despite that, you are still loyal. Ridiculous. That should have been enough for you to realize that Democrats can't be trusted. Meanwhile, Trump is the most open and honest President in 100 years, always talking to reporter and holding press conferences everyday (remember Biden was hidden by his handlers from the press for months at a time).
Democrsts are lying criminal fascists. We now know why they always want higher taxes: they take our money, give it to USAID et al, which then give it to Democrat NGOs, which then funnel money to ActBlue etc., which then donates the money back to Democrat politicians and paid protestors!
The reality is Democrats support comes from those who are fascists, those who hate everyone with more money than them, those who are ignorant, or those how have mental health problems.
Democrats have mental health issues: https://news.gallup.com/poll/102943/republicans-report-much-better-mental-health-than-others.aspx
Almost 40% of Democrats report mental health issues: https://news.gallup.com/poll/102943/republicans-report-much-better-mental-health-than-others.aspx
Science says liberals, not conservatives, are psychotic
https://nypost.com/2016/06/09/science-says-liberal-beliefs-are-linked-to-pyschotic-traits/
Liberals more likely to have a mental health condition
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2021/apr/22/white-liberals-more-likely-have-mental-health-cond/
Well yes, the S&P500 has dropped slightly more than 10% from the Feb 19 all-time high. This is very similar to the 12% haircut that 2022 started with. Different tactical reasons, same base reason of "uncertainty." Corrections like this can resolve either way, like the 2014 Ebola which resolved to the upside, or the 2022 inflation scare which resolved lower. It all depends on the next bounce and if certainty is restored by then.
Good points about not being in a crash yet, but I think the general narrative is not that we’re in a crash today, rather the probability is increasing that we will see one very soon. And enter a recession. Just because it hasn’t dropped 10% yet doesn’t mean the odds of that happening anytime soon are not there. In short, I think it’s fair to still be bearish right now.
Pomp, I love the way you broke down the current market situation. It's easy to get caught up in the doom and gloom of mainstream media, but the data shows a much different picture. The S&P 500 being flat and Bitcoin and gold performing well over the last six months is a strong reminder that volatility doesn't equal a crash. It's also critical to challenge the traditional data sources, as you've pointed out. I agree that the Fed should cut rates, and the current inflation metrics are misleading. Great insights!
Pomp sucks MAGA cock.
Excellent research. Thank you.
I enjoy reading your newsletter, but I’ve always had this nagging feeling that you fail to address the bigger picture. A couple weeks ago you wrote about how you had changed your mind about tariffs. The reasoning seemed to be “this is what happed last time, so this is what will happen this time”. Donald Trump is random, impulsive, unsteady, unreliable, vindictive and of course, obsessed with Donald Trump, person. Throw your 6 month stock market chart out the window. We’re now dealing with a superficial idiot. I am as conservative as it gets. The markets never lie. Thank god I’m 80% cash right now. I’m going to do very well with this idiot in charge.
Trump is anything but an idiot. He has a solid long term plan that may, but not definitely, will include some short term pain. The economy has been juiced by $2T deficits that drove up stocks and inflation and made the ruling class rich while the working class gets crushed (I include anyone making under $400K and not in government working class).
Trump is trying to cut government and deficits, remove illegals and bring back manufacturing to America. All to benefit the working class. We may have lower overall growth as we have negative government growth, but the private sector will thrive.
I'm betting on this administration to succeed. Congress is the wildcard because they are part of that ruling class I talked about. The courts too.
Exactly!
Exceptional read and listen.