Several dangerous assumptions underpin this argument here:
1. Markets always go up and to the right - such a paradigm has lost fortunes and livelihoods for centuries
2. US is the same robust and strong nation is has always been. This thinking thoroughly ignores major changes happening geopolitically (wars, rebalancing), domestic troubles (racial clash, collapse of middle class), and structure of US economy (financialization) and government (aging and bankrupt)
3. Past = future - Markets (like nations) never collapse or recover the same way. Markets are ever more complex so assuming ZIRP and QEI are constant or that inflation of asset prices is guaranteed is a mistake
4. Systems are closed rather than open. Systems are not closed, meaning QEI does not necessarily = inflation, just as debt does not necessarily = bankruptcy, or VC funding does not necessarily = IPOs. Other variables frustrate linear models.
What we do know is that when everyone is on the same side of a trade or all investors reach a consensus that means it’s time to rethink your position.
Pay attention to the details (including elections) and assume that flat rails and worst case scenarios (war, market crashes, and meltdowns) can happen.
FWIW, there’s absolutely NO guarantee that we’ll know for sure who our president is ‘within a week’. My research finds that there are a litany of legal shenanigans about to transpire that could result in the outcome of this presidential election needing to go all the way to the US Supreme Court to actually get adjudicated! Buckle up and get out your popcorn cause this is gonna be one helluva long, wild, ride!
You said you couldn’t be sure which poll was more accurate in Iowa?? I know. Ann Selzer is known to be very independent and knowledgeable about Iowa. Emerson? Not sure …
I can tell you that the Emerson poll released Sunday was funded by a right-leaning organization with a bias toward showing that Donald Trump “ can’t” lose on Tuesday. It’s in the fine print of the Emerson poll who paid for it .
These so called “ red wave” polls are flooding the poll averages. Over 75 just in the past week or two. It’s been going on this entire election season, focused largely on swing states & most on PA.
Several dangerous assumptions underpin this argument here:
1. Markets always go up and to the right - such a paradigm has lost fortunes and livelihoods for centuries
2. US is the same robust and strong nation is has always been. This thinking thoroughly ignores major changes happening geopolitically (wars, rebalancing), domestic troubles (racial clash, collapse of middle class), and structure of US economy (financialization) and government (aging and bankrupt)
3. Past = future - Markets (like nations) never collapse or recover the same way. Markets are ever more complex so assuming ZIRP and QEI are constant or that inflation of asset prices is guaranteed is a mistake
4. Systems are closed rather than open. Systems are not closed, meaning QEI does not necessarily = inflation, just as debt does not necessarily = bankruptcy, or VC funding does not necessarily = IPOs. Other variables frustrate linear models.
What we do know is that when everyone is on the same side of a trade or all investors reach a consensus that means it’s time to rethink your position.
Pay attention to the details (including elections) and assume that flat rails and worst case scenarios (war, market crashes, and meltdowns) can happen.
FWIW, there’s absolutely NO guarantee that we’ll know for sure who our president is ‘within a week’. My research finds that there are a litany of legal shenanigans about to transpire that could result in the outcome of this presidential election needing to go all the way to the US Supreme Court to actually get adjudicated! Buckle up and get out your popcorn cause this is gonna be one helluva long, wild, ride!
You said you couldn’t be sure which poll was more accurate in Iowa?? I know. Ann Selzer is known to be very independent and knowledgeable about Iowa. Emerson? Not sure …
I can tell you that the Emerson poll released Sunday was funded by a right-leaning organization with a bias toward showing that Donald Trump “ can’t” lose on Tuesday. It’s in the fine print of the Emerson poll who paid for it .
These so called “ red wave” polls are flooding the poll averages. Over 75 just in the past week or two. It’s been going on this entire election season, focused largely on swing states & most on PA.