From what I understand, the only reason I have from you is that Truinflation is showing we're below a 2% threshold.
I get it, we made some arbitrary target that Fed has set. Yeaahhhhh! Ticker tape parade!
I say, STOP. Look at reality. You don't want to account for low unemployment, positive retail sales, positive GDP, 4.7% appreciating real estate market, because they're 'lagging indicators' ?
How about oil at $75 bbl, $$ holding in at $103, stock markets at exuberant levels, S&P earnings chugging along, 10 yr yield back to 4%, rising consumer confidence, NAHB builder survey positive, etc. etc.
Where in the hell, does it say: WE NEED A RATE CUT ?
Folks living on fixed income are able to make a nickel on their savings without carrying risk.
People look at rate cuts like heroin in my opinion.
Interest rates are a tool for economic stabilization. When shits hitting the fan, they're silver bullets to stimulate the economy, to prime the economic engine. When things are running hot, they're used to put on the breaks, to slow things down a bit.
I could argue the need for RATE HIKES.
I say, get off the heroin, let the economy finally balance out to some NORMALCY, Fed funds rate at 0 - .25 for damn near a DECADE is not normalcy.
I am glad rates stayed the same. The rates need to stay the same or raise interest rates 1 more time. Need it high enough to slow things down and when its time they can cut rates in the future. Inflation is NOT under control. I don't care what CPI is. I see costs high in almost everything I buy. In my opinion, the economy is stable, and they should keep the rates at these levels for all of 2024.
NO, the FED should not lower rates. The FED is fighting the free spending morons in Washington and EU central bank, which is pushing the World Economic Forum agenda.
The Fed does not work for smart-money people. We agree with you, Pomp. However, the Fed works for ignorant-money people who read headlines and act like they understand the world.
Waiting to cut is a fair concern given lag effects from increases are still likely flowing through the system with some weakness under the hood. That said official inflation ticked up in December for the first time since July, and official GDP is still running hot. So the question is going to be do you want to risk recession or risk repeating the 70’s. Pick your poison.
With the national debt at $34 Trillion, the only way you pay it down is either work it off (GDP), inflate it away (rising dollar), or tax it away (Higher taxes).
Concerns about 3% GDP being 'hot', seriously?
You don't want the alternatives, I assure you of that.
If this is an argument for cuts to reduce federal interest expense then personally think I do want the alternative. Papering over a problem has generally made it much worse in the end.
No argument there. We do need strong GDP if we are going to work our way out of this. My real point was just that cutting while growth has been high, especially with massive fiscal deficits, risks meaningful inflation which is great if you’re carrying a 30 trillion dollar balance on your credit card I suppose.
I would like to know WHY?
From what I understand, the only reason I have from you is that Truinflation is showing we're below a 2% threshold.
I get it, we made some arbitrary target that Fed has set. Yeaahhhhh! Ticker tape parade!
I say, STOP. Look at reality. You don't want to account for low unemployment, positive retail sales, positive GDP, 4.7% appreciating real estate market, because they're 'lagging indicators' ?
How about oil at $75 bbl, $$ holding in at $103, stock markets at exuberant levels, S&P earnings chugging along, 10 yr yield back to 4%, rising consumer confidence, NAHB builder survey positive, etc. etc.
Where in the hell, does it say: WE NEED A RATE CUT ?
Folks living on fixed income are able to make a nickel on their savings without carrying risk.
People look at rate cuts like heroin in my opinion.
Interest rates are a tool for economic stabilization. When shits hitting the fan, they're silver bullets to stimulate the economy, to prime the economic engine. When things are running hot, they're used to put on the breaks, to slow things down a bit.
I could argue the need for RATE HIKES.
I say, get off the heroin, let the economy finally balance out to some NORMALCY, Fed funds rate at 0 - .25 for damn near a DECADE is not normalcy.
This comment got me fired up, Jim. Love the breakdown - thank you!
I am glad rates stayed the same. The rates need to stay the same or raise interest rates 1 more time. Need it high enough to slow things down and when its time they can cut rates in the future. Inflation is NOT under control. I don't care what CPI is. I see costs high in almost everything I buy. In my opinion, the economy is stable, and they should keep the rates at these levels for all of 2024.
NO, the FED should not lower rates. The FED is fighting the free spending morons in Washington and EU central bank, which is pushing the World Economic Forum agenda.
The Fed does not work for smart-money people. We agree with you, Pomp. However, the Fed works for ignorant-money people who read headlines and act like they understand the world.
Waiting to cut is a fair concern given lag effects from increases are still likely flowing through the system with some weakness under the hood. That said official inflation ticked up in December for the first time since July, and official GDP is still running hot. So the question is going to be do you want to risk recession or risk repeating the 70’s. Pick your poison.
With the national debt at $34 Trillion, the only way you pay it down is either work it off (GDP), inflate it away (rising dollar), or tax it away (Higher taxes).
Concerns about 3% GDP being 'hot', seriously?
You don't want the alternatives, I assure you of that.
If this is an argument for cuts to reduce federal interest expense then personally think I do want the alternative. Papering over a problem has generally made it much worse in the end.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not for cuts at this time. You had made the comment that GDP is 'running hot'.
I was pointing out that we want STRONG, SOLID, GDP, it'll help us work our way out of the national debt, think tax dollars.
No argument there. We do need strong GDP if we are going to work our way out of this. My real point was just that cutting while growth has been high, especially with massive fiscal deficits, risks meaningful inflation which is great if you’re carrying a 30 trillion dollar balance on your credit card I suppose.