To investors, The unemployment rate in the United States is sitting near historic lows. This is impressive, especially post-COVID chaos, because it took nearly a decade to reach the ~3.5% unemployment rate after the Global Financial Crisis in 2008-2009.
Seems like we should definitely brace for higher unemployment. The numbers are worse than they appear. We ran a chart in our newsletter yesterday showing that total employed persons is below pre-pandemic levels (as of May 2022).
Yikes. According to Census, our population has grown by 1 million since the pandemic started + $5 trillion in new money was printed to drive growth. And fewer people are employed than two years ago?
Some might be newly self-employed, but that can't explain it all. There's $2 trillion in excess savings, so it seems lots of people are sitting on the sidelines and using that money. An analyst in WSJ today estimates that most of that excess savings will be gone by Labor Day.
We're already seeing an uptick in layoffs. So . . . increasing layoffs + sideline sitters running out of money = lots of people looking for jobs in a recession this fall.
Now's the time to prepare. Skill up. Build network. Save for rainy day.