To investors, US Treasuries have long been considered the risk-free return. You could buy these assets, hold them to maturity, and you were guaranteed a pre-determined return. There was no risk because the return was paid by the US government and no one seriously worries about a US default that would prevent Treasury holders from being paid.
As long as the US keeps manically printing money the value of your future USD becomes worthless, regardless of the promised return. Invest in your health in all forms, education, skills, tools, community, silver and Bitcoin.
This is the new reality. Digital assets will continue to grow as a risk free return, while the US dollar acts more as fiat only to peurchase things. Our government has run deficits too long, kicking the can down the road. What happens when no other country wants to trade in USD. The debt will become even more difficult to pay.
Fully got your point re. gov. bonds v.s. Bitcoin, but aside a default (or equivalent), there is a strong mathematical relationship between the initial yield on constant maturity bond ETFs (like the TLT ETF mentioned) and the subsequent returns (for TLT, would be over the next ~30 years), whatever the exact "path" taken by interest rates during that period.
So, writing that there is a "near certainty their capital will be destroyed" is not exact - what is exact is that somebody investing in the TLT ETF today locks in an ~4.7% annualized return over the next ~30 years (+/- something, as there is always variation), aside default.
As long as the US keeps manically printing money the value of your future USD becomes worthless, regardless of the promised return. Invest in your health in all forms, education, skills, tools, community, silver and Bitcoin.
This is the new reality. Digital assets will continue to grow as a risk free return, while the US dollar acts more as fiat only to peurchase things. Our government has run deficits too long, kicking the can down the road. What happens when no other country wants to trade in USD. The debt will become even more difficult to pay.
Hi Anthony,
Fully got your point re. gov. bonds v.s. Bitcoin, but aside a default (or equivalent), there is a strong mathematical relationship between the initial yield on constant maturity bond ETFs (like the TLT ETF mentioned) and the subsequent returns (for TLT, would be over the next ~30 years), whatever the exact "path" taken by interest rates during that period.
This relationship was used already by Bogle in 1990 for setting reasonable expectations re. gov. bonds future returns (for those interested, c.f. https://portfoliooptimizer.io/blog/the-bogle-model-for-bonds-predicting-the-returns-of-constant-maturity-government-bond-etfs/ - disclaimer, I am the author).
So, writing that there is a "near certainty their capital will be destroyed" is not exact - what is exact is that somebody investing in the TLT ETF today locks in an ~4.7% annualized return over the next ~30 years (+/- something, as there is always variation), aside default.
You are killing children if you are investing in that Nazi trash!