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I think crypto is viewed as a threat the existing US power structure and that is causing “leaders” to act out of personal interest instead of public interests. The bank lobby is particularly threatened imo.
This is a nonsense argument, based on a fallacy: The number of users doesn't matter (especially now that we've moved on from the Zero Interest Rate World), it's the VALUE of those users and the volume of actual REVENUE that a platform can draw from them which is key. Maybe 15% of Facebook users were American back in 2014/15, but what percentage of ad revenue was Facebook drawing from that minority? In other words, what's the ARPU of American Facebook users vs. everyone else? (I'll tell you: In 2022, it was about $59/user in US/Canada, dropped way down to $17 in Europe, and then everywhere else it's a mere ~$4). So, given that an American Facebook user is worth *15x* what an ex-US global user is, there's a very good reason why Facebook now, like then, focuses the majority of its investment on its core American users. And why Facebook was built and Meta remains in the United States.
Ditto with cypto. Sure, anyone can and always could set up a crypto operation out of Dubai and exclude American users, but then where is your money coming from, then? Where are there hundreds of millions of potential users ...who also have wallet? China (as mentioned here without further comment)? As if the Chinese state isn't itself dubious about cypto and already more intrusive with tech/financial regulation than the US Government! As if your scaled up, foreign-owned crypto operation wouldn't be a ripe plum to pick the next time the state wants to give a gift to Chinese enterprise or just make a point?
After China, the only other market of sufficient size/wealth to scale profitably is Europe. Need I say more?
Excluding the Big Three and their combined $62 trillion GDP, you can pick up the scraps from the rest of the world. User growth will be infinite! Very impressive growth charts. BILLIONS of potential users in India, Pakistan, Vietnam, Nigeria, et al, yes. Except what about the actual revenue/lifetime value of those users? What happens to the average annual income of your crypto users when you take the US out of the customer base? Then crypto will be fully revealed for what skeptics already suspect it is, a shady back-alley of fintech that helps oligarchs, criminals, etc. to launder money and a niche pyramid scheme, at best, for everyone else.
I believe that crypto has 4 constituencies: winners, losers, would-be winners, and would-be losers. Only the winners want to see action. Would-be winners are not in the game (yet) or have moved onto the loser stack. Losers and would-be losers are confused with which they hate more: the winners or the would-be winners. Anyone else I missed in my analysis doesn’t know or care enough to bother asking.
We are also getting barraged by black and white negative perspectives by the likes of Bill Mahr and John Oliver. It seems like a coordinated attack from somewhere. Wondering if you are any readers have thoughts on this? Thx
people need to trust cryptocurrency instead of the lying politicians who so far has gotten us in so much debt that our great-grandchildren will still be paying for it and the stock market is so afraid to make any money that if the feds say anything about raising the interest rates it freezes in their tracks
I think crypto is viewed as a threat the existing US power structure and that is causing “leaders” to act out of personal interest instead of public interests. The bank lobby is particularly threatened imo.
Thanks for the post Pomp
This is a nonsense argument, based on a fallacy: The number of users doesn't matter (especially now that we've moved on from the Zero Interest Rate World), it's the VALUE of those users and the volume of actual REVENUE that a platform can draw from them which is key. Maybe 15% of Facebook users were American back in 2014/15, but what percentage of ad revenue was Facebook drawing from that minority? In other words, what's the ARPU of American Facebook users vs. everyone else? (I'll tell you: In 2022, it was about $59/user in US/Canada, dropped way down to $17 in Europe, and then everywhere else it's a mere ~$4). So, given that an American Facebook user is worth *15x* what an ex-US global user is, there's a very good reason why Facebook now, like then, focuses the majority of its investment on its core American users. And why Facebook was built and Meta remains in the United States.
Ditto with cypto. Sure, anyone can and always could set up a crypto operation out of Dubai and exclude American users, but then where is your money coming from, then? Where are there hundreds of millions of potential users ...who also have wallet? China (as mentioned here without further comment)? As if the Chinese state isn't itself dubious about cypto and already more intrusive with tech/financial regulation than the US Government! As if your scaled up, foreign-owned crypto operation wouldn't be a ripe plum to pick the next time the state wants to give a gift to Chinese enterprise or just make a point?
After China, the only other market of sufficient size/wealth to scale profitably is Europe. Need I say more?
Excluding the Big Three and their combined $62 trillion GDP, you can pick up the scraps from the rest of the world. User growth will be infinite! Very impressive growth charts. BILLIONS of potential users in India, Pakistan, Vietnam, Nigeria, et al, yes. Except what about the actual revenue/lifetime value of those users? What happens to the average annual income of your crypto users when you take the US out of the customer base? Then crypto will be fully revealed for what skeptics already suspect it is, a shady back-alley of fintech that helps oligarchs, criminals, etc. to launder money and a niche pyramid scheme, at best, for everyone else.
Letters like this need to make it into hands and eyes in the halls of congress.
I believe that crypto has 4 constituencies: winners, losers, would-be winners, and would-be losers. Only the winners want to see action. Would-be winners are not in the game (yet) or have moved onto the loser stack. Losers and would-be losers are confused with which they hate more: the winners or the would-be winners. Anyone else I missed in my analysis doesn’t know or care enough to bother asking.
Down with Crypto. Long live Bitcoin.
We are also getting barraged by black and white negative perspectives by the likes of Bill Mahr and John Oliver. It seems like a coordinated attack from somewhere. Wondering if you are any readers have thoughts on this? Thx
Great as always Pomp!
Becoming the enemy to fight the enemy has terrible results in human history...
Additionally I could imagine future efforts to restrict access and even TRAVEL to access, any currency seen as a threat, outside of the US.
What would motivate the US government to ’deregulate’ any currency that competes with THEIR dollar? Asking
people need to trust cryptocurrency instead of the lying politicians who so far has gotten us in so much debt that our great-grandchildren will still be paying for it and the stock market is so afraid to make any money that if the feds say anything about raising the interest rates it freezes in their tracks
After watching too much Ray Dalio. I think America is not doing very well in the long run💀🤣