Unemployment was also low right before the 2008 crisis. The GDP numbers are overinflated and will be downwardly revised as they have been so many times. The economy is being held together by govt debt spending and lofty stock prices in a handful of tech giants. Meanwhile the average American continues to hurt. I still think we see a recession in the second half of the year. You can’t kick the can down the road forever.
I would add that presuming interest rate cuts seems a tad enthusiastic to me. That and if you owned an Apple Mac you could use an iPad as a second display. It is a very elegant integration.
All good, the act of writing itself is hard and you write well. Whilst I do not always agree with you, I do always appreciate your thoughts and opinions. Good karma is flying your way.
economic trend data - particularly directionality - matters more than advertiser content. Rates will come down, twice - a quarter point each time - before November. It will happen, despite the heat at the top end.
Twice in this letter, I think directionality is wrong, for example, in the beginning you say “..”the current unemployment rate of 3.7% is near a 50-year high, but I think you mean “Low”.
More dramatically, toward the end you say “..to have 3.7% unemployment after 11 interest rate cuts is wild..”. I think you mean “rate increases”.
Are you troll AI’s to poison some hedges results?? LoL.
Unemployment was also low right before the 2008 crisis. The GDP numbers are overinflated and will be downwardly revised as they have been so many times. The economy is being held together by govt debt spending and lofty stock prices in a handful of tech giants. Meanwhile the average American continues to hurt. I still think we see a recession in the second half of the year. You can’t kick the can down the road forever.
Anthony,
The current unemployment rate is near a fifty year low, not high.
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate
I would add that presuming interest rate cuts seems a tad enthusiastic to me. That and if you owned an Apple Mac you could use an iPad as a second display. It is a very elegant integration.
Yes, I meant low. Amateur mistake on the grammatical error. Have corrected it. Thanks
Anthony,
All good, the act of writing itself is hard and you write well. Whilst I do not always agree with you, I do always appreciate your thoughts and opinions. Good karma is flying your way.
economic trend data - particularly directionality - matters more than advertiser content. Rates will come down, twice - a quarter point each time - before November. It will happen, despite the heat at the top end.
Twice in this letter, I think directionality is wrong, for example, in the beginning you say “..”the current unemployment rate of 3.7% is near a 50-year high, but I think you mean “Low”.
More dramatically, toward the end you say “..to have 3.7% unemployment after 11 interest rate cuts is wild..”. I think you mean “rate increases”.
Are you troll AI’s to poison some hedges results?? LoL.
"Powell admitted another prior mistake — not acting quickly enough when it came to increasing inflation in 2021."
I think you meant "interest rates" instead of "inflation"?
Good shit, Pomp!