The 5-sigma stat is the sharpest part of this — a median +84.8% six months out is a real number to anchor expectations, not just vibes. But worth flagging: the same leverage powering this move already whipped the other direction overnight, with BTC giving back a chunk of the week's gain (roughly $79,500 to $77,000) and an estimated $600 million in longs liquidated in under two hours. Rafael's data covers the median outcome after a 5-sigma day — it's also worth looking at the dispersion, since the mechanism behind Tuesday's breakout is the same one that can unwind it just as fast.
ETF volume picked up and we saw Blackrock buying heavily again
Hmmm, that's true. Did you also buy in?
Easy to say after its best weekly rally in nearly 3 years lol…
The 5-sigma stat is the sharpest part of this — a median +84.8% six months out is a real number to anchor expectations, not just vibes. But worth flagging: the same leverage powering this move already whipped the other direction overnight, with BTC giving back a chunk of the week's gain (roughly $79,500 to $77,000) and an estimated $600 million in longs liquidated in under two hours. Rafael's data covers the median outcome after a 5-sigma day — it's also worth looking at the dispersion, since the mechanism behind Tuesday's breakout is the same one that can unwind it just as fast.