Today’s Letter Is Brought To You By Figure!
Figure’s giving back to their community with up to $160k in rewards! The more the community borrows, the more Figure gives back.
For a limited time, every newly funded crypto-backed loan helps unlock a growing Community Rewards pool of up to $160,0001. See “How it works” below for more details.
Unlike sweepstakes, there are no drawings or registrations. If you fund an eligible crypto-backed loan during 7/27/26 - 8/27/26, you’re eligible to receive a share of rewards the community unlocks.
To investors,
Bitcoin is ripping higher and you can feel sentiment changing in real-time. This week we have seen the leading digital asset surge to over $77,000 per coin, which is a 22% increase in the last 5 days.
This type of volatility is usually reserved for the euphoria of bull markets, so the fact it is happening during a bear market is a signal investors must pay attention to. Luke Martin explained the significance of this move when he wrote:
“The last time we had this explosive of a one-day move deep in bear market was April 2019. Volatility had evaporated, no one was trading, no catalyst on horizon. Those 6 months felt just like the last 6 months. And then one morning a $100M buyer forced a breakout amplified by massive liquidations & short covering. Instant vibe-shift. You could feel it then. You can feel it today.”
The catalyst for this move was a surprise announcement from the US Treasury. They announced intentions to at least double the size of their liquidity-support buyback operations for longer-dated Treasuries (maturing in the 10- to 30-year range), which means the operation would now top more than $4 billion. Within minutes of the announcement, bitcoin started accelerating as the market was reminded that the government is never going to stop printing money.
Rather than spend our time dissecting the intricacies of Treasury policy, I think it is more productive to discuss what this announcement and the related move in bitcoin means for investors.
First, we can see a heavy bid happening in the bitcoin ETFs. Galaxy’s Alex Thorn writes “Bitcoin ETFs see biggest weekly net flow since October 2025 all-time high week. Net flow this week is +$1.6 billion and the week is not over yet. [The] ETF average holder cost basis = $84,156. can we get there?”
This persistent bid in ETFs is a welcomed sign of institutional interest in the asset. Earlier this week I published an interview where I explicitly stated there was no obvious catalyst for bitcoin on the calendar, but we needed a catalyst to bring back the institutional bid.
From these ETF flows, it appears the Treasury announcement is the catalyst we were missing. Wall Street seems wide awake when it comes to bitcoin’s ability to appreciate when the money printer is turned on.
The second thing to understand is this move in bitcoin coincides with the start of the 5th business cycle, which was pointed out by TechDev.
Historical performance is not an indicator of future performance, but this business cycle analysis has been very accurate over the years. I wouldn’t use it to identify exact tops and bottoms in markets. However, I think it can be a great supporting data point that shows when bull and bear markets are shifting into a new regime. Given the data, we may have just flipped back into the next bull market regime and will continue grinding up from here.
If this regime shift is true, then the question is what type of return profile should investors anticipate happening? Rafael, one of the cofounders of Glassnode, laid out the historical performance based on the 5 sigma move in bitcoin. He writes:
Since 2013, Bitcoin has closed a day at 5+ sigma to the upside only 14 times. Half of them, like yesterday, came out of very low vol environments.
Median performance after those events:
1 week: +4.8%
1 month: +11.8%
3 months: +15.1%
6 months: +84.8%”
I don’t know many bitcoin investors who would be upset with an 80%+ return over the next 6 months. To further the case for this being a sustainable move in bitcoin, Rafael also pointed out that bitcoin has reclaimed the 200 day moving average and the short-term holder cost basis has flipped positive for the first time in awhile.
Both of these suggest that bitcoin is abandoning the bear market vibes and will be returning to its foundation as an asset that protects people against undisciplined monetary policy. If that is the case, bitcoin investors will look back on the last 10 months as another bear market they were thankful to weather.
I am not in the business of calling market bottoms. I don’t trade bitcoin. Instead, I am a long term holder who is smart enough to recognize that something fundamentally shifted this week. Those who have continued holding bitcoin feel better today than they did at the beginning of the week, but that vibe shift is rooted in data and fundamentals.
Hope everyone has a great weekend. I will talk to you all on Monday.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)
Bitcoin’s Rally Today Just Confirmed Everything
I sat down with John Pompliano to discuss the state of bitcoin at $64,000, why the price has stabilized, and what it will take to spark the next bull run.
We also break down the exploding cost of AI adoption inside businesses, the national debt problem no president seems willing to fix, and where investors should be putting their capital right now.
Podcast Sponsors
Figure – Get a slice of $160,000 with their Community Appreciation event. T&Cs apply. True DeFi Democratized Prime yielding ~8.5% APY. They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Crypto Backed Loan today. Figure Lending LLC dba Figure (NMLS 1717824)
Arch Public’s platform automates your trading strategy beyond DCA for equities, commodities, ETFs, and crypto. With advanced inputs that reflect your own intentions, Arch Public supports smarter entries, exits, and opportunities in volatile markets. Connect with their team, try the product for free, and see how agentic trading can work for you, with Arch Public!
GalaxyOne – Open an account with promo code POMP and deposit $10,000 to earn a $3,000 bonus. Terms apply. https://go.galaxy.app/HMiq/p57n69yy
Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp
BitcoinIRA - Save up to 37% in capital gains taxes on your retirement investments. Signup today and win up to $4,000 in rewards.
BloFin - BloFin is a fast-growing cryptocurrency exchange focused on providing professional-grade trading tools, deep liquidity, and a secure trading environment for crypto traders worldwide.
Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com
🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.
You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.
Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender.
NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.
ETF volume picked up and we saw Blackrock buying heavily again
The Treasury buyback catalyst tracks with what we're seeing on the sentiment side too — Fear & Greed went from 31 (Fear) to 73 (Greed) in seven days, the fastest flip I've tracked all year. Worth weighing against the $84,156 ETF average holder cost basis you cited: spot BTC is still roughly $7K below that break-even, so "can we get there" isn't just upside talk, it's the level where the last wave of ETF buyers stops sitting on paper losses. If the 5-sigma median holds, we clear it well before the 3-month mark.