To investors,
Bitcoin has been on a historic run recently. The digital currency had a weekly close above $119,000 last night. This is the highest weekly close in bitcoin’s history.
As our friends at Geiger Capital put it perfectly when they said “Hell of a candle. Price discovery.” And this is exactly how price discovery works. Bitcoin will be re-priced higher and higher until the net new buyers are exhausted.
So how high could bitcoin go during this price discovery?
You can see in the chart that back in November of 2024, bitcoin went from $70,000 to $90,000 in a matter of weeks after breaking through a previous all-time high. Bitcoin would run to $140,000 in the next 2 weeks or so if the asset followed a similar breakout of 30%. I am not predicting we will see $140,000 in short order. I am merely showing you what happened the last time bitcoin was in a similar price discovery phase.
This brings us to another question - what caused bitcoin to finally break out of the previous range between $100,000 and $110,000?
That answer is a little more complex. First, we know the bitcoin ETFs have seen significant inflows to start the month of July. Barchart highlights that last Thursday was the second highest day of inflows for the collective Bitcoin ETFs.
More than $1.2 billion of inflows for the bitcoin ETFs in a single trading session is incredible. It is hard to explain how successful the bitcoin ETF launches have been for Wall Street.
Bloomberg’s Eric Balchunas does his best with this visualization of how dominant Blackrock’s IBIT fund has been. Eric writes “$IBIT blew through the $80 billion mark last night, fastest ETF to get there in 374 days, about 5x faster than the previous record, held by $VOO, which did it in 1,814 days. Also at $83 billion it's now 21st biggest ETF overall.”
Eric then goes on to explain the collective bitcoin ETF success by saying “total assets for all the spot bitcoin ETFs crossed $140b for first time as well.” These are monster numbers for products that are about 18 months old.
On top of the ETF inflows, bitcoin options expired at the end of June for the second quarter. As Jordi Visser told me on our weekly Saturday podcast — “at the end of every quarter there is a lot of open interest from people that are selling future production…volatility was compressed. Bitcoin volatility was below 40, so I think once we came out of expiration there was less sell pressure.”
So you can’t ignore the importance of option expirations happening a few days before the bitcoin breakout. But that isn’t the full story either. Jordi goes on to explain that short sellers had built up and got squeezed which reinforced the price movement upwards. He told me “there were a lot of shorts that had built up in the $110,000 - $120,000 area around prior all-time highs.”
Now this makes more sense. We have a confluence of events. Bitcoin ETF inflows were near record levels, bitcoin options had just expired, and short sellers had become too complacent, so they got liquidated on the way up.
It doesn’t matter how high we go in the short term. The professional investing world finally realizes bitcoin is not going away. These organizations and people are going to persistently bid the asset to much higher levels in the coming years. There will be plenty of volatility along the way, including bear markets. But make no mistake about it — Wall Street is capitulating.
They are waving the white flag. No one wants to ignore, fight, or ridicule bitcoin anymore. They all want to buy and hold it. What else should they do if they can’t figure out a way to outperform it? I continue to say it over and over again…bitcoin is the new hurdle rate. If you can’t beat it, you have to buy it.
And Wall Street is finally starting to listen.
Hope you all have a great day. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.
- Anthony Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
🚨 READER NOTE: ProCap BTC LLC currently holds 4,950 bitcoin, which are valued at approximately $601 million, based on $121,500 per bitcoin.
Based on Friday's closing price, $CCCM continues to provide one of the cheapest mNAV premiums to public market investors as part of the proposed transaction with ProCap BTC, LLC.
Jordi Visser is a macro investor with over 30 years of Wall Street experience. He also writes a Substack called “VisserLabs” and puts out investing YouTube videos.
In this conversation we discuss why bitcoin is breaking out, how he knew it was going to happen, the next move for bitcoin, stocks, tariffs, and how the world will change with AI.
Enjoy!
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Additional Information and Where to Find It
ProCap Financial, Inc., a Delaware corporation (“ProCap Financial”) and Columbus Circle Capital Corp I, a Cayman Islands exempt company (“CCCM”) intend to file with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) a Registration Statement on Form S-4 (as may be amended, the “Registration Statement”), which will include a preliminary proxy statement of CCCM and a prospectus (the “Proxy Statement/Prospectus”) in connection with (i) a proposed business combination, to be effected subject to and in accordance with the terms of certain business combination agreement dated as of June 23, 2025 (as may be modified, amended or supplemented from time to time, the “Business Combination Agreement”), by and among ProCap Financial, CCCM, Crius SPAC Merger Sub, Inc., a Delaware corporation, Crius Merger Sub, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company, ProCap BTC, LLC, a Delaware limited liability company (“ProCap BTC”), and Inflection Points Inc, d/b/a Professional Capital Management, a Delaware corporation (collectively with all of the related actions and transactions contemplated by such agreement, the “Business Combination”), (ii) a private placement of non-voting preferred units (“ProCap BTC Preferred Units”) of ProCap BTC to certain “qualified institutional buyers” as defined in Rule 144A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”), or institutional “accredited investors” (as defined in Rule 506 of Regulation D)(such investors, “qualifying institutional investors”)(the “Preferred Equity Investment”) pursuant to preferred equity subscription agreements, and (iii) commitments by qualifying institutional investors to purchase convertible notes (“Convertible Notes”) issuable in connection with the Closing by ProCap Financial (the “Convertible Note Offering” and, together with the Preferred Equity Investment and the Business Combination, the “Proposed Transactions”) pursuant to convertible notes subscription agreements. The definitive proxy statement and other relevant documents will be mailed to shareholders of CCCM as of a record date to be established for voting on the Proposed Transactions and other matters as described in the Proxy Statement/Prospectus. CCCM and/or ProCap Financial will also file other documents regarding the Proposed Transactions with the SEC. This communication does not contain all of the information that should be considered concerning the Proposed Transactions and is not intended to form the basis of any investment decision or any other decision in respect of the Proposed Transactions. BEFORE MAKING ANY VOTING OR INVESTMENT DECISION, SHAREHOLDERS OF CCCM AND OTHER INTERESTED PARTIES ARE URGED TO READ, WHEN AVAILABLE, THE PRELIMINARY PROXY STATEMENT/PROSPECTUS, AND AMENDMENTS THERETO, AND THE DEFINITIVE PROXY STATEMENT/PROSPECTUS AND ALL OTHER RELEVANT DOCUMENTS FILED OR THAT WILL BE FILED WITH THE SEC IN CONNECTION WITH CCCM’S SOLICITATION OF PROXIES FOR THE EXTRAORDINARY GENERAL MEETING OF ITS SHAREHOLDERS TO BE HELD TO APPROVE THE PROPOSED TRANSACTIONS AND OTHER MATTERS AS DESCRIBED IN THE PROXY STATEMENT/PROSPECTUS BECAUSE THESE DOCUMENTS WILL CONTAIN IMPORTANT INFORMATION ABOUT CCCM, PROCAP BTC, PROCAP FINANCIAL AND THE PROPOSED TRANSACTIONS. Investors and security holders will also be able to obtain copies of the Registration Statement and the Proxy Statement/Prospectus and all other documents filed or that will be filed with the SEC by CCCM and ProCap Financial, without charge, once available, on the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov, or by directing a request to: Columbus Circle Capital Corp. I, 3 Columbus Circle, 24th Floor, New York, NY 10019; e-mail: IR@ColumbusCircleCap.com, or upon written request to ProCap Financial Inc. at 600 Lexington Ave., Floor 2, New York, NY 10022, respectively.
NEITHER THE SEC NOR ANY STATE SECURITIES REGULATORY AGENCY HAS APPROVED OR DISAPPROVED THE PROPOSED TRANSACTIONS DESCRIBED HEREIN, PASSED UPON THE MERITS OR FAIRNESS OF THE PROPOSED TRANSACTIONS OR ANY RELATED TRANSACTIONS OR PASSED UPON THE ADEQUACY OR ACCURACY OF THE DISCLOSURE IN THIS COMMUNICATION. ANY REPRESENTATION TO THE CONTRARY CONSTITUTES A CRIMINAL OFFENSE.
The offer and sale of the Convertible Notes to be issued by ProCap Financial pursuant to the Convertible Note Offering and the offer and sale of the ProCap BTC Preferred Units in the Preferred Equity Investment, in connection with the Proposed Transactions, has not been registered under the Securities Act of 1933, as amended (the “Securities Act”) and such securities may not be offered or sold in the United States absent registration or an applicable exemption from the registration requirements of the Securities Act.
Participants in Solicitation
CCCM, ProCap BTC, ProCap Financial and their respective directors, executive officers, certain of their shareholders and other members of management and employees may be deemed under SEC rules to be participants in the solicitation of proxies from CCCM’s shareholders in connection with the Proposed Transactions. A list of the names of such persons, and information regarding their interests in the Proposed Transactions and their ownership of CCCM’s securities are, or will be, contained in CCCM’s filings with the SEC, including the final prospectus for CCCM’s initial public offering filed with the SEC on May 19, 2025 (the “IPO Prospectus”). Additional information regarding the interests of the persons who may, under SEC rules, be deemed participants in the solicitation of proxies of CCCM’s shareholders in connection with the Proposed Transactions, including the names and interests of ProCap BTC’s and ProCap Financial’s respective directors or managers and executive officers, will be set forth in the Registration Statement and Proxy Statement/Prospectus, which is expected to be filed by ProCap Financial and CCCM with the SEC. Investors and security holders may obtain free copies of these documents as described above.
No Offer or Solicitation
This communication and the information contained herein is for informational purposes only and is not a proxy statement or solicitation of a proxy, consent or authorization with respect to any securities or in respect of the potential transactions and shall not constitute an offer to sell or exchange, or a solicitation of an offer to buy or exchange the securities of CCCM, ProCap BTC or ProCap Financial, or any commodity or instrument or related derivative, nor shall there be any sale of any such securities in any state or jurisdiction in which such offer, solicitation, sale or exchange would be unlawful prior to registration or qualification under the securities laws of such state or jurisdiction. No offer of securities shall be made except by means of a prospectus meeting the requirements of the Securities Act or an exemption therefrom. Investors should consult with their counsel as to the applicable requirements for a purchaser to avail itself of any exemption under the Securities Act.
Forward-Looking Statements
This communication contains certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the U.S. federal securities laws with respect to the Proposed Transactions involving ProCap Financial, ProCap BTC, and CCCM, including expectations, hopes, beliefs, intentions, plans , prospects, financial results or strategies regarding ProCap BTC, ProCap Financial, CCCM and the Proposed Transactions, statements regarding the anticipated benefits and timing of the completion of the Proposed Transactions, the assets that may be held by ProCap BTC and ProCap Financial and the value thereof, the price and volatility of bitcoin, bitcoin’s growing prominence as a digital asset and as the foundation of a new financial system, ProCap Financial’s listing on any securities exchange, the macro and political conditions surrounding bitcoin, the planned business strategy including ProCap Financial’s ability to develop a corporate architecture capable of supporting financial products built with and on bitcoin including native lending models, capital market instruments, and future innovations that will replace legacy financial tools with bitcoin-aligned alternatives, plans and use of proceeds, objectives of management for future operations of ProCap Financial, the upside potential and opportunity for investors, ProCap Financial’s plan for value creation and strategic advantages, market size and growth opportunities, regulatory conditions, technological and market trends, future financial condition and performance and expected financial impacts of the Proposed Transactions, the satisfaction of closing conditions to the Proposed Transactions and the level of redemptions of CCCM’s public shareholders, and ProCap Financial’s expectations, intentions, strategies, assumptions or beliefs about future events, results of operations or performance or that do not solely relate to historical or current facts. These forward-looking statements generally are identified by the words “believe,” “project,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “estimate,” “intend,” “strategy,” “future,” “opportunity,” “potential,” “plan,” “may,” “should,” “will,” “would,” “will be,” “will continue,” “will likely result,” and similar expressions. Forward-looking statements are predictions, projections and other statements about future events or conditions that are based on current expectations and assumptions and, as a result, are subject to risks and uncertainties. Many factors could cause actual future events to differ materially from the forward-looking statements in this communication, including, but not limited to: the risk that the Proposed Transactions may not be completed in a timely manner or at all, which may adversely affect the price of CCCM’s securities; the risk that the Proposed Transactions may not be completed by CCCM’s business combination deadline; the failure by the parties to satisfy the conditions to the consummation of the Proposed Transactions, including the approval of CCCM’s shareholders; failure to realize the anticipated benefits of the Proposed Transactions; the level of redemptions of the CCCM’s public shareholders which may reduce the public float of, reduce the liquidity of the trading market of, and/or maintain the quotation, listing, or trading of the Class A ordinary shares of CCCM or the shares of common stock, par value $0.0001 per share, of ProCap Financial (“Pubco Common Stock”) to be listed in connection with the Proposed Transactions; the insufficiency of the third-party fairness opinion for the board of directors of CCCM in determining whether or not to pursue the Proposed Transactions; the failure of ProCap Financial to obtain or maintain the listing of its securities on any securities exchange after closing of the Proposed Transactions; risks associated with CCCM, ProCap BTC and ProCap Financial’s ability to consummate the Proposed Transactions timely or at all, including in connection with potential regulatory delays or impediments, changes in bitcoin prices or for other reasons; costs related to the Proposed Transactions and as a result of becoming a public company; changes in business, market, financial, political and regulatory conditions; risks relating to ProCap Financial’s anticipated operations and business, including the highly volatile nature of the price of bitcoin; the risk that ProCap Financial’s stock price will be highly correlated to the price of bitcoin and the price of bitcoin may decrease between the signing of the definitive documents for the Proposed Transactions and the closing of the Proposed Transactions or at any time after the closing of the Proposed Transactions; asset security and risks associated with CCCM, ProCap BTC and ProCap Financial’s ability to consummate the Proposed Transactions timely or at all, including in connection with potential regulatory delays or impediments, changes in bitcoin prices or for other reasons; risks related to increased competition in the industries in which ProCap Financial will operate; risks relating to significant legal, commercial, regulatory and technical uncertainty regarding bitcoin; risks relating to the treatment of crypto assets for U.S. and foreign tax purposes; risks related to the ability of ProCap BTC and ProCap Financial to execute their business plans; the risks that launching and growing ProCap Financial’s bitcoin treasury advisory and services in digital marketing and strategy could be difficult; challenges in implementing ProCap Financial’s business plan, due to operational challenges, significant competition and regulation; risks associated with the possibility of ProCap Financial being considered to be a “shell company” by any stock exchange on which ProCap Financial’s common stock will be listed or by the SEC, which may impact ProCap Financial’s ability to list Pubco Common Stock and restrict reliance on certain rules or forms in connection with the offering, sale or resale of securities, which could impact materially the time, cost and ability of ProCap Financial to raise capital after the closing; the outcome of any potential legal proceedings that may be instituted against ProCap Financial, ProCap BTC, CCCM or others in connection with or following announcement of the Proposed Transactions, and those risk factors discussed in documents that ProCap Financial and/or CCCM filed, or that will be filed, with the SEC, including as will be set forth in the Registration Statement to be filed with the SEC in connection with the Proposed Transactions.
The foregoing list of risk factors is not exhaustive. You should carefully consider the foregoing factors and the other risks and uncertainties described in the “Risk Factors” section of the IPO Prospectus, CCCM’s Quarterly Reports on Form 10-Q and CCCM’s Annual Reports on Form 10-K that will be filed by CCCM from time to time, the Registration Statement that will be filed by ProCap Financial and CCCM and the Proxy Statement/Prospectus contained therein, and other documents that have been or will be filed by CCCM and ProCap Financial from time to time with the SEC. These filings do or will identify and address other important risks and uncertainties that could cause actual events and results to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements. There may be additional risks that neither CCCM nor ProCap Financial presently know or that CCCM and ProCap Financial currently believe are immaterial that could also cause actual results to differ from those contained in the forward-looking statements.
Forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made. Readers are cautioned not to put undue reliance on forward-looking statements, and each of CCCM, ProCap BTC, and ProCap Financial assume no obligation and do not intend to update or revise these forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise. Neither CCCM, ProCap BTC, nor ProCap Financial gives any assurance that any of CCCM, ProCap BTC or ProCap Financial will achieve their respective expectations. The inclusion of any statement in this communication does not constitute an admission by CCCM, ProCap BTC or ProCap Financial or any other person that the events or circumstances described in such statement are material.
But as i read on social media so many times since 2020 "Michael Saylor is an idiot" right?
He's still an idiot, right?
I mean an obvious limited supply, solid asset backed by nothing (cough cough USD cough), with possibly the best 'store of value' properties in history will disappear to $0 right?
I mean us Schiff(ies) need this!!
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