Trump Survived & Asset Prices Are Responding
To investors,
Everyone has likely seen the footage of the attempted assassination of President Trump from this weekend. It was surreal to see the footage spread at warp speed around the internet within minutes of the bullets being fired.
It was a prime example of the hyper-connected, digital world that we live in today.
Shortly after the video spread of Trump grabbing his ear and diving to the ground, this photo from AP Chief Photographer Evan Vucci surfaced.
I posted the photo on Twitter almost immediately with the comment “Whatever your politics, this will be an iconic image for decades to come.” It was clear as soon as I saw it that this photo of Trump, his face bloodied and his fist raised high, would strike an emotional chord with millions of Americans.
In moments of violence, you learn a lot about a man. Fight or flight. Those two human emotions drive whatever an individual instinctually does moments later. And Trump stood up and told his supporters to “Fight!” This show of strength is uncommon in American society today, which is part of what makes it so memorable.
But Trump’s strength was not the only show of strength on Saturday evening.
Corey Comperatore, a former Pennsylvania fireman, was in the crowd when the bullets started flying. Instead of cowering in fear or freezing in the moment of chaos, Corey threw his wife and daughter on the ground and then jumped on top of them to shield them from danger.
Unfortunately, Corey was hit and killed by the assassin’s gunfire.
The man literally took a bullet for his family.
They don’t make many men like that anymore. Hero shit. When I heard the story, all I could think about was Corey hopefully inspiring millions of men to be better husbands, fathers, and friends.
The events of Saturday night feel like a turning point in our country.
Many American citizens saw the violence for what it was — an unacceptable action that must be vehemently denounced by everyone, regardless of political party or opinion. Politics has become a wasteland of extremism and a complete lack of common sense. The civility of it has disappeared.
As a country, we are better than that. United we stand, divided we fall.
When I was in elementary school, we had to stand up and recite the Pledge of Allegiance every morning. It read:
“I pledge allegiance to the Flag of the United States of America, and to the Republic for which it stands, one Nation under God, indivisible, with liberty and justice for all.”
One nation. Indivisible. Liberty and justice for all.
That is what the United States of America is all about. And there is no country in the world that is better at being America than us. So hopefully we will begin the journey back towards decency, civility, and bipartisanship.
With all of that said, you each come to this letter to read about financial markets and assets. It is my job to understand what is happening during moments of uncertainty, so although it is weird to talk about — below are a few data points worth mentioning.
First, Donald Trump’s odds of winning the US election in November spiked to an all-time high of 70% on Polymarket almost immediately after the photos and videos began to surface on Saturday night.
Viraj Patel points out “over the last 24 hours Trump's odds of winning have seen the biggest 1-day increase since he announced he was running in 2016 (surpassing 2wks ago after the 1st debate). In fact, his odds of winning have never been higher at any point in the last 3 election races.”
Next, bitcoin’s price told the story better than the news. The digital currency fell on the initial news of the assassination attempt, but the asset rapidly rose as soon as it was clear that Trump was going to survive.
Bitcoin was not the only asset responding to the news. The Trump Media & Technology Group stock skyrocketed more than 20% when overnight markets opened last night, which made trading venues like Robinhood immediately halt the stock.
It will be interesting to see how the overall stock market reacts today to the events over the weekend. According to a Twitter user, here are the S&P 500 returns for the days following the failed assassination attempt of President Reagan on 3/30/81:
1-day: -0.87%
2-day: -0.46%
5-day: +0.54%
1-month: +2.01%
I have no clue what is going to happen in the coming days with various financial assets. What I do know is that President Trump appears to have gained even more notoriety, fame, and respect from different parts of the population, but it is hard to compare him to Presidents in the pre-internet era.
Additionally, market participants have much faster access to information, along with less spin coming from the mainstream media thanks to social platforms like Twitter. This access to unfiltered information should allow investors to make higher quality decisions as long as they can control their emotions during a time of chaos.
When I said “I’ll talk to you on Monday” in my letter on Friday, I didn’t think I would be talking about an assassination attempt on the leading Presidential candidate, nor did I think we would have another input to analyze as we allocate capital in the market.
But this is what makes investing so intellectually interesting. You must have an insatiable curiosity to understand how the world works. And there is no better example than what has transpired over the last 72 hours.
Hope you all have a great start to your week. I’ll talk to everyone tomorrow.
-Anthony Pompliano
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During the Black Lives Matter protests Trump
Literally hid the entire time in an underground bunker. Just sayin brah.
Trump Vance 2024!