This Is The Biggest Threat For Investors Over Next 20 Years
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To investors,
I fundamentally believe socialism is the largest risk to investors’ portfolios over the next 20 years. There are two types of socialism that I am worried about: explicit and implicit socialism.
First, explicit socialism can be seen on full display in New York City by Mamdani. He is promising free buses and childcare, while laying out plans for five city-run grocery stores. He claimed yesterday that the grocery stores will sell every item in the store for 30% less than the retail price at other stores.
Here is Mamdani’s plan:
“Today, I am proud to announce a collection of essential staples that will be predictably 30% cheaper at all five of our city-run grocery stores. This core set of goods will include all fresh produce, meat, and seafood, along with 20 other essential items like cheese, milk, and bread.
Here’s how it will work. Once a month, our five city-run grocery stores will set prices for this core set of goods at 30% below typical retail prices. No exceptions, no gimmicks. The savings will last for the entire month. That means no weekly fluctuations or sticker shock at the checkout line—not for our seniors living on fixed incomes, nor for the parents who rely on a regular supply of apple slices to keep toddler tantrums at bay.”
He is hoping we ignore the fact that the only way for the government to do this is for the bureaucrats to hemorrhage money like a gun shot victim laying on the operating table. And this doesn’t even get into what the mayor plans to do when the stores are overrun with demand and he has to choose how to ration to food? Who gets priority? Do we create a list based on race, wealth status, gender, or some other socialist construct that is untethered from reality?
If we are able to navigate those impossible questions, then the government will have to deal with individuals buying the food at a discount only to resell it at market rates elsewhere. How are they going to stop those free market actors? Will they outlaw selling food?! You never know what could happen when a lunatic is in charge of economic policy, especially when he has never had to run a business, employ people, or think about the long-term consequences of government’s involvement in private industry.
Remember, the government makes things more expensive, private companies make things less expensive.
This explicit socialism experiment being run by Mamdani has been tried over and over again throughout history, but it never works. Just ask the Russian or Venezuelan immigrants who fled to America over the last few decades because there was literally no food on the shelves in the grocery stores.
But explicit socialism is easy to spot and easy to argue against. History is on our side. It is the implicit socialism that is harder to recognize and likely a much bigger threat to Americans’ investment portfolio.
This implicit socialism shows up in the form of money printing. Republicans and Democrats are both guilty of participating in the destruction of US dollar purchasing power.
This money is printed and handed out across the economy. Wealthy people get government contracts, subsidies, and a persistent bid in certain financial markets. The social safety net in America directs hundreds of billions of dollars to a variety of government services, NGOs, and a significant amount of fraud.
So much of politics has become an argument over who gets the pleasure of receiving the money printed by the government. This may not be labelled socialism, but it is just as negative as Mamdani’s ridiculous policies on the local level.
Investors are directly in the cross-hairs of this double-team from the extremes of both political parties. Some people want to use explicit socialism to redistribute wealth, while relying on the government to artificially manipulate prices lower. Other people want to print money and hand it out like candy on Halloween.
This means inflation runs hot, purchasing power evaporates, and investors are forced to take on more risk as they stretch for a real return on their investment. This is the biggest risk over the next two decades in my mind and I don’t see it dissipating any time soon. In fact, every data point is telling us that the problem is going to get much worse.
So my suggestion is to buckle up for the ride and create a portfolio that is insulated from the insanity that is coming fast. There are many assets you can use to protect yourself, but I continue to reiterate the Crazy Uncle portfolio of land, gold, bitcoin, and guns.
This may not be popular right now, but eventually people will realize why they need these assets over the coming years. Hope you have a great day. I will talk to everyone next time.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)
Wall Street's Top AI Bull Reveals the Real Bottleneck (It's Not Chips)
Dan Ives is the Partner and Senior Managing Director at Yorkville Ives, a new merchant bank he's building.
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Corporations don't make things less expensive, they raise prices and don't bring them down.
They also cut corners everyway possible to squeeze profits, sometimes jeopardizing people's health.
What's the saying: Socialiam is the Fire Department putting out your house's fire, Capitalism is the Insurance company DENYING your claim.
Democratic Socialiam are Government Programs that help all the people, it's exactly why we pay taxes.
Our current Capitalistic society is broken and needs a reboot.
I sold land, but I still have gold, bitcoin and guns