The most important chart in the stock market has nothing to do with AI
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Today’s edition is a guest post by Phil Rosen, chief market strategist at ProCap Financial and the author of the Opening Bell Daily newsletter.
Bull markets do not end when the average stock in the market keeps hitting new highs.
That’s exactly what’s happening right now.
The equal-weight S&P 500 is up 12.2% this year against 8.7% for the market-cap weighted benchmark. Not only that, but the NYSE advanced-decline line hovers near all-time highs, which means there are far more names going up than going down.
That is compelling evidence that the bull run is still broadening out, however top-heavy the index might look from the outside.
Over the last month, the average stock has gained more than 1% despite the bear market in many of the most popular semiconductor and memory names like Micron, Sandisk and Western Digital.
Roughly two-thirds of S&P 500 stocks are higher today than at the start of June, and 8 of 11 sectors have climbed. Healthcare and financials have led the way — hardly what you’d expect in a market that’s supposedly propped up by an AI bubble.
That participation doesn’t show up in the S&P 500’s headline number because the Magnificent 7, which is negative as a group so far in 2026, still accounts for close to 30% of its value.
The same broad pattern holds true with the Nasdaq 100, the market’s most concentrated and tech-heavy index.
The average Nasdaq 100 stock is up 14.2% this year, outperforming the cap-weighted Nasdaq 100’s 11.3% return.
To be clear, the current bull market is nearly four years old and it was indeed top-heavy for most of its early run. That said, a broadening out like this is still historically what you would see in the middle innings of a rally.
No investing story is usually simple enough to explain in a headline. That’s why the bears will pound the table about a popping bubble when semiconductor stocks turn red or when broader indexes move sideways.
Yet the more intriguing and accurate story isn’t happening at a headline level. It’s unfolding beneath the surface and across the most boring names and sectors in the market.
The risk-reward favors the bulls right now. So does history.
Phil Rosen is the chief market strategist at ProCap Financial and the co-founder of Opening Bell Media.
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Darius Dale is the founder and CEO of 42 Macro.
In this conversation, we break down what the Fed should do next, how money printing quietly erodes your purchasing power, Kevin Warsh's plan to reshape the Fed, what history says happens to economies as K-shaped as ours, and what gives Darius hope for the future.
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