The Economy is all based on theatre and herding the Masses and Money. Nothing is going to change. Acquire hard assets for the long haul. Long the Stock market. Gamble on AI, Robotics, and Crypto.
Insightful breakdown. The Fed’s challenge reminds me that monetary policy is as much about psychology as it is about data. When the committee can’t agree, uncertainty itself becomes policy—and that uncertainty is costly for businesses and investors.
I agree with your point that volatility in rates makes long-term planning nearly impossible. Stable cost of capital is crucial, and without it, businesses are forced into short-term thinking.
Do you think this unpredictability will accelerate capital into alternative assets (like Bitcoin or private markets), or will equities remain the default despite the noise?
Thanks for your inflation prediction. I was with you back in April. The tariff is on the producer price (1/4 to 1/2 the retail price). Producers, importers, shippers , distributors and retailers will each pay a chunk of the tariff. That leaves a small percentage for the consumer to bear. And it’s a one time hit.
The Fed doesn’t “decide” rates.It reacts to the consequences of its past decisions.That’s the paradox of central banking,always steering, never arriving.
It doesn’t matter what the Fed does. The gig is up with loss of faith in the Fed and the currency itself! Fiat currency is always a scam that works so long as people believe in it, like a Ponzi scheme. The Fed actions are a sideshow to the two possibilities left on the table. Devalue the dollar way more, slowly but surely, to rid the debts over time (assuming markets hold in the meantime) or announce an outright reset to a new partial percentage gold backed dollar.
Pomp -- all due respect -- but this was categorically one of your most seemingly emotionally unhinged posts of all time. your assertions and conclusions are clearly based more on your desires than on reality. 99% of your posts are worthy of thoughtful consideration ..... this one is not. jmho.
for the sake of argument, let me challenge a few things --
first, the headline is clickbait and wrong. 11 of 12 voting members were in agreement yesterday with only trump administration official miren dissenting. certainly not worthy of a "can't make up their mind' characterization.
second, the dot plots for 2025 and future years are about as normal as I've seen over the last decade plus. they are by definition predictions (guidance) to give the markets ranges of likelihood.
third, there are applications where management by committee is good and there are applications where it is bad. sadly, people who feel their opinion is always correct (which we seem to have many, many of these days) don't like to negotiate and compromise but that is the ideal outcome very often and IMO the Fed and our national monetary policy is a good application of such.
i'll leave it there. Overall thank you for the outstanding content you present but this one missed the mark for me.
This time the cuts are measured vs the half point bazooka on 2000. Bitcoin and Etherium have turned up after this recent consolidation. It speaks a lot to risk appetite.
Price rules. Look back to the first week of January 2000. Fed did an unexpected cut in the thinnest part of the day just after 12 CDT. Result was 400 Nasd points higher with pit spreads 150-200 points apart. That was the Dotcom high. The game is afoot.
The Economy is all based on theatre and herding the Masses and Money. Nothing is going to change. Acquire hard assets for the long haul. Long the Stock market. Gamble on AI, Robotics, and Crypto.
Insightful breakdown. The Fed’s challenge reminds me that monetary policy is as much about psychology as it is about data. When the committee can’t agree, uncertainty itself becomes policy—and that uncertainty is costly for businesses and investors.
I agree with your point that volatility in rates makes long-term planning nearly impossible. Stable cost of capital is crucial, and without it, businesses are forced into short-term thinking.
Do you think this unpredictability will accelerate capital into alternative assets (like Bitcoin or private markets), or will equities remain the default despite the noise?
Thanks for your inflation prediction. I was with you back in April. The tariff is on the producer price (1/4 to 1/2 the retail price). Producers, importers, shippers , distributors and retailers will each pay a chunk of the tariff. That leaves a small percentage for the consumer to bear. And it’s a one time hit.
The Fed doesn’t “decide” rates.It reacts to the consequences of its past decisions.That’s the paradox of central banking,always steering, never arriving.
It doesn’t matter what the Fed does. The gig is up with loss of faith in the Fed and the currency itself! Fiat currency is always a scam that works so long as people believe in it, like a Ponzi scheme. The Fed actions are a sideshow to the two possibilities left on the table. Devalue the dollar way more, slowly but surely, to rid the debts over time (assuming markets hold in the meantime) or announce an outright reset to a new partial percentage gold backed dollar.
Pomp -- all due respect -- but this was categorically one of your most seemingly emotionally unhinged posts of all time. your assertions and conclusions are clearly based more on your desires than on reality. 99% of your posts are worthy of thoughtful consideration ..... this one is not. jmho.
for the sake of argument, let me challenge a few things --
first, the headline is clickbait and wrong. 11 of 12 voting members were in agreement yesterday with only trump administration official miren dissenting. certainly not worthy of a "can't make up their mind' characterization.
second, the dot plots for 2025 and future years are about as normal as I've seen over the last decade plus. they are by definition predictions (guidance) to give the markets ranges of likelihood.
third, there are applications where management by committee is good and there are applications where it is bad. sadly, people who feel their opinion is always correct (which we seem to have many, many of these days) don't like to negotiate and compromise but that is the ideal outcome very often and IMO the Fed and our national monetary policy is a good application of such.
i'll leave it there. Overall thank you for the outstanding content you present but this one missed the mark for me.
This time the cuts are measured vs the half point bazooka on 2000. Bitcoin and Etherium have turned up after this recent consolidation. It speaks a lot to risk appetite.
Price rules. Look back to the first week of January 2000. Fed did an unexpected cut in the thinnest part of the day just after 12 CDT. Result was 400 Nasd points higher with pit spreads 150-200 points apart. That was the Dotcom high. The game is afoot.