To investors,
I have previously written to this group about the concept of one BIG IDEA. The general premise is that every standout investor gets a single great idea during their lifetime. Their job is to exploit that idea as many times as they can.
Buffett bought things for less than they were worth. Icahn agitated companies until they improved. Simons used math to find inefficiencies. The list goes on and on.
I believe the BIG IDEA of my generation is that the government will never, ever stop printing money. There are many ways to exploit this fact, but your (and my) job is to capitalize on the incompetence of our politicians and central bankers.
Creative Planning’s Charlie Bilello shows US M2 money supply just hit a new all-time high of $22.3 trillion.
As he so eloquently puts it, “death, taxes, and printing money…”
Charlie explains the new all-time high was achieved because “the US money supply grew 4.6% over the last year, the biggest year-over-year increase since July 2022.”
Now this is obviously a positive tailwind for investors. If you hold assets denominated in dollars, and those dollars keep losing value, then your assets will surge in price. The higher prices go, the wealthier the investor becomes.
But there is a national crisis underway for those that don’t own enough assets. Balaji Srinivasan shows “the cost-of-living crisis is really a sovereign debt crisis. You can only print and borrow for so long. It causes problems in the long run. And the long run is here.”
In my view, the same way that a generation of investors get one BIG (Investment) IDEA, societies have to navigate one Bad (Policy) Idea per generation. In our current generation, the same trend of money printing is creating the BIG (Investment) IDEA and the Bad (Policy) Idea.
That is why there is so much controversy, debate, and chaos. What is good for the top 50% of Americans is destructive to the bottom 50% of Americans. The money that is printed, the wealthier asset owners get and the poorer non-asset owners become.
The first principles solution would be to address the root cause of societal issues by halting the printing of money. The problem is that no one, especially not any politicians, are incentivized to do that. It would be a suicide mission for any elected official to strip their constituents of the various benefits from money printing.
We should make the hard decision today. Just don’t hold your breath that our leaders will have the stomach for doing it.
Have a great day and Happy Thanksgiving to everyone. I will talk to you on Monday morning.
- Anthony Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
What I Really Think About Bitcoin, Inflation and Economic Policy
Anthony and John Pompliano dig into whether markets have truly bottomed or if more pain is coming.
They break down the economy, inflation, rates, politics, and immigration — and how all of it is shaping investor psychology right now. Plus, they unpack Mike Green’s argument that America’s real poverty line may be closer to $140,000 than $31,000.
Enjoy!
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Extremely poor and parsimonious analysis. USD is a network like any other, and when inflated or distorted, that network shrinks, as ours is at an accelerated rate. This is not simply about dedollarization it is about a credit Ponzi scheme eating itself as we speak (AI bubble, private credit, derivatives, ABS) and liquidity cannot fix that, and in fact will only ensure its demise.
The defining idea of our monetary era is not money printing, that is the past cycle and we are at its end.
Our future will be determined by what comes AFTER currency destruction and disintermediation of a banking system dominated by Anglo-American Monetary institutions since about 1815.
Bitcoin, Gold, BRICS+, and the rise of a new monetary order in China led by the SGE / SGEI has already taken shape, as you should know.
The next idea is that there will be a new monetary regime and a new Multipolar Monetary World Order (MMWO) whose chief characteristic will be the ABSENCE of a single reserve currency and a new flattened, more decentralized banking order.
Open your eyes and you will see a mass exodus, a global margin call out of dollars and a revolutionary transition into something new.
Pomp is right, and it's the kind of right that makes you unpopular at Thanksgiving dinner. The government will never stop printing money for the same reason your brother-in-law will never stop borrowing from your sister: it's easier than the alternative, and the consequences are always somebody else's problem.
The tragedy is that the bottom 50% gets destroyed by the very people who claim to be saving them. Inflation is a tax that doesn't require a vote. It's the only bipartisan achievement Washington reliably produces.
The solution is simple: stop printing. The problem is that 'simple' and 'politically survivable' haven't spoken since 1971. So we do what every sane person does in a burning building, grab what's fireproof and head for the exits.