The Yardini number is the strongest data point in the piece. PE multiples contracting 4.6% while prices rise 9% means the rally is being underwritten by earnings rather than sentiment expansion. Thats the one signal that separates sustainable bull markets from speculative ones and it argues for continuation.
The three mega-IPOs are the specific stress test this data can't address. Historical patterns for 8-week rallies and Nasdaq seasonality are calibrated to normal supply environments. Three separate trillion-dollar listings arriving in the same window is a supply event the historical dataset has never absorbed. The demand may be there. The equal-weight breadth suggests it is. But the supply test happens outside any historical pattern because the pattern never included three simultaneous trillion-dollar IPOs competing for the same marginal dollar. If the market absorbs them without multiple compression, the bull case is confirmed structurally. If it cant, the earnings growth continues but the multiple paid for it resets.
Bullish on $BRR
The Yardini number is the strongest data point in the piece. PE multiples contracting 4.6% while prices rise 9% means the rally is being underwritten by earnings rather than sentiment expansion. Thats the one signal that separates sustainable bull markets from speculative ones and it argues for continuation.
The three mega-IPOs are the specific stress test this data can't address. Historical patterns for 8-week rallies and Nasdaq seasonality are calibrated to normal supply environments. Three separate trillion-dollar listings arriving in the same window is a supply event the historical dataset has never absorbed. The demand may be there. The equal-weight breadth suggests it is. But the supply test happens outside any historical pattern because the pattern never included three simultaneous trillion-dollar IPOs competing for the same marginal dollar. If the market absorbs them without multiple compression, the bull case is confirmed structurally. If it cant, the earnings growth continues but the multiple paid for it resets.