SpaceX Just Became The First Mega Meme Stock
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To investors,
Elon Musk took SpaceX public last week. The stock has appreciated nearly 60% since the IPO, which helped the company cross the $3 trillion market cap milestone. Given this price appreciation, Elon made more money on paper yesterday than Warren Buffett has in his entire lifetime.
Yes, you read that right. Elon’s net worth increased by more than “a Warren Buffett” in the last 24 hours. Just insane. But Elon’s wealth is the least interesting story in my opinion.
The more important thing is that SpaceX just became the world’s first Mega Meme Stock.
First, to understand what is happening with SpaceX, you have to understand how the long-tail crypto market has worked for years. People would launch new coins, they would create a very low tradable float, and then they would solicit investor interest on social media. As those new investors fought over the scarce number of coins available in the market, the fully diluted value (FDV) of all coins went up substantially.
Once the price per coin reached a ludicrous level, the creator of the coin would start selling some of the previously illiquid coins they were holding. This allowed the creator to monetize the hype and momentum at valuation levels detached from reality, which would then lead to a significant drop in price for the coin. This digital game of hot potato rewarded the creator of the coin or the people who were able to time the market correctly, but it hurt the retail investors who were late to buying and slow to selling.
The reason you have to understand this situation is that SpaceX stock is benefitting from a very similar low float, high FDV scenario. In fact, experienced crypto investors identified this potential situation almost immediately and have been aggressively investing in SpaceX stock over the last few days.
X user Threadguy explains why he got interested in SpaceX stock:
“The reason that I got excited about SpaceX was, it’s the crypto strategy that we know all too well. It’s low float, high FDV on the greatest narrative of all time by the greatest bull poster of all time”
“If they launch this thing, fully diluted and everybody’s unlocked on day one, obviously you’re not touching it. But we watched in real time how Elon has structured it to push float super low at the beginning and lockups down the line.”
The Elon critics will claim this low float situation is merely another tactic from the world’s greatest entrepreneur to extract value from unsuspecting retail investors. They will screech that Elon has too much money and the stock liquidity structure should be investigated immediately by unknown organizations for unknown reasons.
But I have a different view of the situation.
SpaceX announced this morning they are acquiring Anysphere, the maker of Cursor, for approximately $60 billion in stock. This means SpaceX is buying one of the fastest growing AI companies, in one of the most important verticals (coding), for only ~ 2.5% dilution. That is a very savvy capital markets and corporate finance decision.
In addition to the Cursor acquisition, SpaceX is rumored to be considering a merger with Tesla as well. Elon recently said he thinks SpaceX would be doing more than $1 trillion in revenue by the end of the year. The only way he could get there given the current facts would be a merger with Tesla.
By having a high valuation, SpaceX reduces the dilution it would otherwise experience through a large merger with Tesla.
This brings me back to the world’s first Mega Meme Stock.
SpaceX is surging double-digit percentages every day as institutional investors, retail investors, and the media can’t look away. People would rather feel stupid for buying something that may be overvalued later, then feeling stupid for missing out. Human nature is undefeated.
The insatiable investor demand will not go to waste. Thankfully, Elon is going to use the IPO proceeds and high valuation to democratize intelligence, beam the internet down from space, colonize Mars, and invent the orbital data center industry.
The hype will be used to help humanity. He is going to turn attention and momentum into material solutions for some of the hardest problems we face. This is no different than a bubble needed to fund new industries, whether that was the Dot Com bubble, the cable bubble, the COVID bubble, the crypto bubble, or the housing bubble.
People get excited about the future and they invest their capital to help fund it being built. So SpaceX’s spectacular rise is actually a sign that Elon’s vision is more likely to occur than people originally gave him credit for.
Could SpaceX’s stock fall when insiders get their stock and are unlocked later this year? Sure, maybe. Many of those investors are long-term believers though so we may not see as much sell pressure as people think. Additionally, there is so much demand that the sell pressure will likely be eaten up quickly as investors trained to “buy the dip” do exactly that.
Lastly, I would expect Elon and SpaceX to use the increasing stock price to go on an acquisition spree. Cursor is the first one. Tesla is likely on the roadmap. But I wouldn’t be surprised if they start buying up companies or technologies related to AI, data centers, power generation, physical AI, and robotics.
Elon Musk has been clear about the future world he believes is inevitable. He has been diligently working to make it a reality for nearly 30 years. If he has the chance to consolidate resources and accelerate his timeline to achieving success, we have learned to never, ever bet against him.
I hope you all have a great day. I will talk to you next time.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)
Should You Invest In SpaceX IPO, Elon Musk, Bitcoin or AI?
Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack.
In this conversation, we break down the SpaceX IPO, orbital data centers, and the critical minerals powering the AI buildout. We also discuss the AI model wars, why Jordi thinks Sam Altman won’t be running OpenAI within a year, and how the New York Knicks playoff run connects to the future of crypto and blockchain in a world of AI and deep fakes.
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It is just crazy to me that SpaceX is worth more than Amazon and Microsoft. While I'll never bet against the Rocket Man, I cannot justify buying in currently. Hopefully there are better entry points in the future
Tesla lost 9 billion in the last two months. Nah Ill pass