My Current Thoughts On Financial Markets
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To investors,
I shared my current thoughts on financial markets in two interviews this week. The first conversation was with Opening Bell’s Phil Rosen. Here is a summary of my thoughts:
Affordability is the political ballgame. Voters don’t care about Iran or China — they care if they can fill the gas tank and feed their kids. Psychology lags the data, so even cooling inflation won’t save Republicans if nominal prices don’t go lower quickly.
The Iran war broke a perfect setup. Before the conflict, Trump had high growth and low inflation. Now 40% of the CPI jump is gas prices.
The 3-week window. If the conflict ends fast, deflationary forces (deportations, tariffs, AI, robotics) overwhelm the energy spike. Drag it past 2–3 more weeks and structural inflation returns.
Expectations are noise. Pomp ignores beats and misses — he cares about direction and magnitude. Economists being bad at guessing isn’t America’s problem.
Bitcoin = certainty in an uncertain world. Cost of capital, AI sustainability, market direction, consumer health — all unknowable. Bitcoin is scarce, auditable, resilient, non-sovereign, and inheriting boomer wealth.
AI is one giant scarcity bet. Anthropic prepped for 10x growth and hit 80x. Power, data centers, chips, commodities — every layer is supply-constrained, which is why memory stocks rip.
Abundance makes scarcity priceless. If AI can generate infinite music, in-person concerts get valuable. Same logic for Bitcoin in a world of infinite money printing.
“Their heads are a bubble.” AI bears don’t grasp exponential demand from AI agents (already producing more content than humans). Show one shortage where supply is outrunning demand — there isn’t one.
Buy the highs, momentum begets momentum. Soros: “When I see a bubble, I rush in to push it higher.” Paul Tudor Jones got nervous in February, then came home and bought more AI stocks. Permabears with a 0-for-7 track record deserve a scarlet letter.
Micron is the case study. Up 750% in a year, cheapest forward PE in the market — and people still call it a bubble because they missed the first leg.
You can watch the full 20 minute interview below or you can listen on Apple and Spotify.
The second interview that I did this week was at the Consensus crypto conference with Bloomberg’s James Seyffart. I asked Grok to summarize the conversation and here is what it said:
Most crypto is dead: Pomp argues that ~98.6% of coins and projects (beyond the top ~10-15) are “zombie” ghost chains that won’t recover; their all-time highs are permanent, as capital and talent don’t recycle like in traditional startups.
Four areas will succeed: Bitcoin, stablecoins, equity/infrastructure, and tokenization. Everything else faces a tough road.
Institutional adoption is bullish overall: It signals crypto’s maturation (Bitcoin has “won” and gone mainstream like the internet giants), but institutions focus only on high-conviction assets with strong risk-adjusted returns—not memes or low-ranked coins.
Bitcoin ETFs highlight selectivity: Two+ years after launch, institutions haven’t rushed similar products for most other coins, showing limited appetite beyond Bitcoin and core trends.
AI + finance intersection: Pomp’s company Silvia (acquired by ProCap Financial BRR 0.00%↑ ) uses AI to give personalized financial advice by reading (but not controlling) user accounts, automating insights in a way similar to how Bitcoin automates sound monetary policy.
We’re in an “age of automation”: AI, Bitcoin, robotics, etc., squeeze inefficiencies and are deflationary—posing bigger risks than inflation and pressuring the Fed.
AI is net job-creating: Data shows rising software engineering roles, new AI-titled jobs, and falling youth unemployment; companies become more profitable and hire more productive workers.
Crypto hacks/exploits aren’t existential: Recent large losses mostly hit long-tail/dead projects via social engineering, not core blockchains; the maturing market (especially Bitcoin) shrugs them off.
The discussion blends Pomp’s bearish view on most altcoins with optimism on Bitcoin, institutions, AI-driven tools, and broader macro trends.
You can watch the interview below or on YouTube.
I hope you all find these two interviews valuable. I always enjoy learning as much from you, the reader, as possible. Please let me know what you agree or disagree with.
Have a great Sunday. I will talk to everyone tomorrow.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)
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Push back on point 8 — KelpDAO wasn't long-tail. rsETH was an institutionally-backed liquid restaking token sitting under Aave, and the LayerZero bridge that got drained powers 80+ chains. Aave's deposits falling 40% in a week and losing its #1 spot to Lido isn't a zombie-project event. The maturing-market thesis only holds if Bitcoin is the only thing that matters, which is actually the rest of your argument.