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To investors,
Bitcoin just survived a gauntlet of bad news. The FederalReserve increased interest rates. The Clarity Act failed again. Oil is around $100 and the 10-year yield continues flirting with 5%.
Each of these issues should be a headwind for bitcoin. When combined, the digital asset should be suffering under the weight of the collective issues. But that is not happening.
Instead, bitcoin continues to gather strength over the last month. It is up 10% in the last month and 23% in the last 6 months. This is happening in the month of September, which is historically a tough month during bear markets.
The good news is that October and November tend to be very strong. Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick writes “The best month of the year in a midterm year is October. The second best month of the year in a midterm year is November. Almost there.”
This stock market strength usually is correlated to other assets doing well. Bitcoin may not need the stock market as a tailwind though. Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro, explains why thinks bitcoin has bottomed:
“Bitcoin has been on the move after holding the $60k support zone for almost a year. That’s how long a typical Bitcoin winter lasts, so I’m sensing that a new 4-year cycle bull market is underway. Note that the Z-score of BTC/gold has turned positive after being -100%. In the past that has generally been confirmation of a bottom.
What does all of the above suggest? We are in a new secular regime of a higher cost of capital, which suggests that governments will respond with that oldest trick in the book: financial repression.”
We can look at more traditional analytics for similar confirmation. Willy Woo points out the Fisher Transform analysis (measures when price trends reverse), which was created in 2002, has nailed the three previous bitcoin bear market bottoms. It just flashed the fourth reading in history (suggests bitcoin bear market is over), which is very hard to ignore.
Lastly, Joe Consorti reminds everyone that “Bitcoin closing above the 50-week moving average has historically had a 75% chance of marking the cycle low. Apart from the COVID crash black swan, it has a 100% hit rate. The bear is slain. Welcome (tentatively) to the bull market.”
So you have an onslaught of bad news across the macro economy and the regulatory environment, yet bitcoin has gathered momentum upwards. We are headed into two of the best performing months of the year and various metrics are flashing the end of the bitcoin bear market.
No one has a crystal ball, including me, but I like where we are headed. It is likely much higher than where we are now. Hope you didn’t get shaken out of your positions during the boredom of the last year.
Have a great day. I will talk to everyone next time.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: SVIA)
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Bitcoin Is About To Go PARABOLIC Because Of AI Agents
Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack.
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Since this went out, the interest rate on 30-year US government bonds hit 5.47%, the highest since 2004, and the daily money flowing into bitcoin funds has gotten smaller four days running, though it's still positive. Bitcoin sat near $84K through all of it, which arguably helps your case. What would make you change your mind: a weekly close back under the 50-week average, or something else?
pomp. try my arcade educational game, i literally just finished it. short 6 level journey, make it to wall street from a hoody teen. built for teaching basics in chart reading, than some option application. Can you make the cutt. https://passivenomads.com/play