Investors Are Confused Because We Have Positive And Negative Data
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To investors,
The world is rapidly changing and it is becoming more difficult to navigate financial markets. Many of my smartest friends are scratching their heads as they try to figure out what is happening, how the changes will impact asset prices, and where they should allocate their capital.
During these times, the only thing I know is to look at the data. There are plenty of data points you could use to spin a negative outlook on the US economy right now.
For example, Barchart explains “12.7% of credit card loans are now in serious delinquency (90+ days), the 2nd highest in history. The only other time the percentage was higher was the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis.”
That is not good. A deteriorating labor market could accelerate the problem too.
3Fourteen’s Warren Pies writes “AI’s impact on the labor market is no longer theoretical. In the most AI-exposed industries, job losses are accelerating (especially compared to their pre-AI trend growth). AI resistant industries continue to add jobs. As the year progresses, expect this wedge to grow.”
This weakness in the job market could spell further pain financially for Americans. We know that the wealth inequality gap is widening at an alarming pace.
As we can see, the wealth of the top 1% is now more than $42 trillion, while the wealth of the middle class is only $20 trillion. This means the top 1% has more than twice the wealth of the entire middle class.
This wealth inequality is most likely only going to get worse over time if we continue on the path we are currently going down. The wealthy will own financial assets, AI agents, and robots, while the bottom half of the K-shaped economy will be holding cash and struggling to get a job.
You can see this future divide clearly in the difference between data center construction versus general office construction.
As Campbell put it, we are building “more space for machines to work than space for humans.” Whoever controls those machines will benefit greatly.
Thankfully, all the data and news is not negative though.
Eddy Elfenbein writes “the labor force participation rate for prime-working age people is at a 25-year high, and it’s close to an 80-year high (as far back as the data goes).”
Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick also dispels the myth that only the Mag 7 drives returns. He says “For years they said only seven stocks were outperforming. It wasn’t true, but it is what we were told. Today? We are seeing the broadest rally in history.”
So my conclusion is that both things are going to be true: you will continue to see lots of fear porn dominating the media, but there is an incredible amount of opportunity that is driven by positive developments across the economy.
Glass half full or glass half empty? That will be for each of you to decide. As for me, I would never, ever bet against the United States of America or our assets. Lets see what happens.
Have a great start to your week. I will talk to you tomorrow.
- Anthony J. Pompliano
Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management
Bitcoin Is About to Absorb a Historic Rotation
Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with over 30 years of market experience and the author of VisserLabs Substack.
In this episode, we break down what’s happening in software stocks, credit markets, and bitcoin — including how bitcoin could benefit in both inflationary and deflationary environments. We also explore real-world AI adoption, capital shifts, and a few surprising insights Jordi didn’t see coming.
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Pomp here is presenting the symptoms of wealth concentration as evidence against wealth concentration concerns. The broad market rally and the 1% owning twice the middle class are the same phenomenon described from two different vantage points. But that also happens to describe the wealth concentration in BTC itself, so I guess Pomp is just trying to normalize his audience to the shitty reality of the new future guys like Pomp feel they have a bigger stake in than the present.