Bitcoin's performance & the long adoption curve

Bitcoin is a unique asset. The digital currency has no government behind it, no private company that owns it, and is run by a decentralized network of computers around the world. As more and more people buy into the belief that Bitcoin is a viable store of value & medium of exchange, the value will continue to rise because of the artificially capped supply (supply & demand economics).

Before we get excited about Bitcoin’s future prospects though, let’s take a look at the past performance:

  • Bitcoin is up 194,000,000%+ since inception on January 3, 2009

  • If you bought Bitcoin on any day since January 3, 2009 and held it for 3.5 years, you have seen your Bitcoin appreciate in US dollar price

  • You made money if you bought Bitcoin and held it until today in 122 of the 125 months that Bitcoin has been available. The only three months that have been unprofitable were December 2017 and January / February 2018. Eventually those months will turn profitable as well.

  • Bitcoin has 0% yield, which is higher than 18 countries’ government bonds

  • Bitcoin is up more than 800% in the last 2.5 years and is up more than 130% year-to-date

Simply, Bitcoin has continued to thrive against all odds. It has been declared dead more than 300 times by the mainstream media and wealthy elites publicly attack it almost daily. Governments around the world have banned it in various ways and central bankers continue to scream that it isn’t real money.

In fact, the Chairman of the Board of the Bank of Lithuania (Vitas Vasiliauskas) recently gave a speech where he admitted the benefits of digital currencies, but stated that only central bank digital currencies could be recognized as real money:

“Under the current financial architecture central banks issue two sorts of money: currency in circulation in the form of the good old banknotes and coins, and digital money, available as reserve or settlement accounts with the central bank.”

“The CBDC would be a novel type of central bank money. Although also digital, it should be distinguished a traditional reserve account. The CBDC would also be fundamentally different from private crypto assets. This is because it would be money!”

This is a trite talk track from central bankers because they are out of touch with reality. Tens of millions of people around the world are opting to use Bitcoin as a store of value or medium of exchange. The fixed supply asset continues to receive increasing demand, which drives the US dollar price upwards.

The secret? People are slowly learning to trust algorithms over humans. The idea that we can audit the software code behind Bitcoin and know the monetary policy decisions for the next ~120 years is compelling. Over time, more people will get comfortable with software-backed money and government-backed money will seem archaic.

This is a very long adoption curve, but one that is necessary and inevitable.


The “Off The Chain” podcast has been downloaded 1,000,000+ times in 160 countries. You can listen to the latest episode with Ted Livingston, CEO of Kik here: Click here for Off The Chain podcast


Novogratz Sees Bitcoin Consolidating in $7,000 to $10,000 Range: Given the huge run-up in cryptocurrencies this year, billionaire investor Mike Novogratz is predicting Bitcoin will soon consolidate to a narrower trading range, but noted that pure excitement could carry prices even higher. “On a go-forward basis, Bitcoin probably consolidates somewhere between $7,000 and $10,000. You know, trees don’t grow to the sky,” the chief executive officer of Galaxy Digital Holdings Ltd., said. Read more.

New Game From ‘CryptoKitties’ Creator Nets $275K in First-Week Spending: Thousands of cheese-shaped cartoon wizards will soon duel online for a grand prize of ether tokens. Dapper Labs, the company behind the 2017 CryptoKitties craze, unveiled its newest ethereum-based gaming experience – “Cheeze Wizards” – last Friday. The game has already attracted 973 players who purchased 4,470 fighters. Most of the ether spent on these digital wizards goes toward prizes, with 607 ETH going to the game’s grand prize. A total of 1,013 ETH has been collected so far, for roughly $275,000 at current prices. Read more.

Binance Partners With Crypto Lending and Borrowing Firm Cred: Binance exchange is teaming up with Cred to offer cryptocurrency lending and borrowing services across its ecosystem. As part of the arrangement, California-based Cred will migrate a portion of its native “LBA” token to Binance’s blockchain network, Binance Chain, according to an announcement Wednesday. Binance chief growth officer Ted Lin said that as Binance Chain has a “one-second block time,” it will help Cred scale its operations to more markets and users, and ensure transactions are “fast, efficient and effortless.” Read more.

State Farm and USAA Test Blockchain Platform for Insurance Claims Process: United States insurance giant State Farm and military-affiliated bank United Services Automobile Association are testing a blockchain-based subrogation solution with real claims data. The two insurance titans are using blockchain technology to automate and streamline the subrogation process in insurance claims. The platform purportedly allows them to automatically compile total payments, net the balance, and conduct a regularly scheduled payment between insurers. Read more.

Irish University to Offer Blockchain Master’s Degree Following New Partnership: Dublin City University has partnered with tech company network Technology Ireland ICT Skillnet to create the country’s first master’s program in blockchain technology. The “Master’s in Blockchain: Distributed Ledger Technologies” degree is the culmination of ICT Skillnet’s efforts to identify the skills upcoming blockchain engineers need to learn, with the help of blockchain educational hub Blockchain Ireland. Read more.

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Joseph Weinberg is Co-Founder of Shyft Network and CEO of PayCase Financial. This episode got off to a wild start when Joseph explained his background so highly recommend you listening.

In this conversation, Joseph and I discuss:

  • Mining Bitcoin in 2010

  • Moving to live with a tribe in the Amazon forest

  • Plant based medicine

  • Building an interoperable, permissioned blockchain.

I really enjoyed this conversation with Joseph. Hopefully you enjoy it too.


Here are my tweets from yesterday:

Interested in crypto research? Look no further. The premier research firm in the space, Delphi Digital, has two subscription offerings for individuals and institutions alike. Take a look at their Bitcoin and Ethereum reports to get a taste of their analysis. [Click here]

If you enjoy reading “Off The Chain,” click here to tweet to tell others about it.

Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.