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To investors,

The stock market keeps hitting new all-time highs because AI has become a “no-brainer” trade for millions of investors around the world. But the recent rebound in public equities is being driven by only five companies according to a recent Financial Times article.

These five stocks (Alphabet, Nvidia, Amazon, Broadcom, and Apple) have accounted for half of the S&P 500’s growth since April.

These behemoths are worth trillions of dollars, yet they are still growing double-digit percentages over the last six months. It is quite impressive to see such dominance performance from some of America’s largest companies.

These eye-popping gains are not just happening in the public market either. Binance Research recently wrote “three trillion-dollar IPOs are expected to launch in 2026, against a historical precedent of only one — Saudi Aramco’s 2019 listing at a US$1.7 trillion valuation. SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI have appreciated by an average of 88% in the secondary market in 2026.”

So what are investors doing if these companies are growing this quickly? Paul Tudor Jones, one of the greatest traders of our lifetime, was recently on CNBC and he put it bluntly when he laughingly said “I bought more AI stocks!”

Take a listen:

It is not every day one of the GOATs is on television enthusiastically laying out his investment thesis like that. But there is an immense amount of data suggesting the AI bull market is just beginning.

You can look no further than the leaders of the technology explicitly saying there is too much demand and not enough supply. For example, Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei recently revealed at a conference that his company had contingency planned for 10x growth of their products, yet they saw 80x growth instead.

Here is Dario explaining it in his own words:

The big takeaway for me from this video clip was Dario’s focus on finding more computing power so he can service the intense demand from his customers. Given this background context, it makes sense that Anthropic would partner with SpaceX, so the model lab can leverage the massive computing infrastructure that Elon Musk has been building.

Blackrock’s Larry Fink strongly agrees about the significant demand for compute. He actually thinks there is so much demand that a new asset class will be created that is centered around buying and selling compute futures.

This brings us to the question of why so many people seem to be interested in AI? The simple answer would be that intelligence is in high-demand. It always has been. Companies would scour the world to find the smartest people to help them succeed. If there is synthetic, superhuman intelligence available to these same companies, they are going to pay ungodly amounts of money to get access to it.

But we also are starting to get data that AI is being used across the economy to create GDP growth and accelerate job creation as well. This is how technology has historically worked. Alvin Foo recently shared a great chart showing how technology creates jobs that didn’t previously exist.

Again, this is a big reason why there is persistent, insatiable demand for AI.

If there are shortages of data centers, power generation sites, available chips, and a variety of commodities, investors are going to allocate their capital to the imbalance to capture the economic reward. That capital will help fund the accelerated build out necessary to satisfy the AI demand, which is exactly how the free-market, capitalist system is supposed to work.

Right now, there are five mega stocks that are driving most of the returns in the S&P 500, which is further increasing the odds that the American stock index will post the 4th straight year of double-digit returns.

Given this positive performance, 42Macro’s Darius Dale explained to BloombergTV that the “biggest mistake the Fed can make this year is doing anything.” His view revolves around the productivity gains brought by the proliferation of AI.

And then we got the jobs report this morning, which Navy Federal’s Chief Economist Heather Long explained by writing “the US economy added a strong 115,000 jobs in April (and March was revised higher to 185,000!) The unemployment rate stayed at 4.3%. Hiring was strong in healthcare (about 1/3 of job gains in April), retail and transportation/warehouse.”

So stocks are surging higher. There is unlimited demand for compute and AI. Job creation is back. And the US economy is pushing higher productivity output.

We could always be better, but it is very hard to argue we are not in a big bull market. Equity investors are going to do well through the end of the year, so don’t overthink this situation. Grab your favorite stocks, put on your seatbelt, and get ready for the ride of a lifetime.

Hope you all have a great end to your week. I will talk to you on Monday.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

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Why Bitcoin, Stablecoins & Tokenization Push Prices MUCH Higher

Chris Perkins is the incoming Head of Crypto at Franklin Templeton, following the acquisition of his firm 250 Digital Asset Management.

In this conversation, we break down the surge in crypto hacks, why AI is accelerating cyber threats, the case for American “privateering” as an offensive strategy against crypto crime, how geopolitics and macro are shaping bitcoin markets, and what institutions are actually buying in crypto right now.

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🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

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To investors,

I posted the following message on X two days ago: “Most of the crypto industry is dead and never coming back. Eventually people will realize it.”

To say this message struck a chord across the industry would be an understatement. I must have been asked 50+ times about the tweet while I was at the Consensus crypto conference yesterday. But after spending the day at the conference, I am more convinced than ever: most of the crypto industry is dead and never coming back.

As you read my explanation below, it is important to remember I have been writing about bitcoin and the broader industry for almost a decade. I am generally an optimistic person. I want to see people and companies succeed. I could never be a short-seller because I don’t have the pessimist gene. It takes a lot for me to publicly talk about the negative aspects of an industry, but I believe we all need some tough love right now.

If we don’t acknowledge the truth, we can’t improve the future. This context may not make people more receptive to the message, but at least I have a clean conscious as I write about many parts of an industry that has become delusional.

First, to understand why so much of the crypto industry is dead already, you have to realize the natural business cycle is not allowed to play out in crypto. Usually an industry would see a technological breakthrough, followed by a flood of new companies being formed, and some small percent of those new companies would succeed. For the companies that fail, the companies are shut down, which allows the remaining capital and talent to be reallocated to other ideas and companies.

The clearing out of bad companies is almost as important as the thriving of good companies in the business cycle. But crypto doesn’t have this business cycle for two reasons: 1) blockchains almost never shut down and 2) coins almost never go to zero.

Regarding the blockchains, it is nearly impossible to shut them down because the software can stay operational with only one or two people continuing to run the network. If the network is never shut down, there is an illusion that the blockchain is still default alive. These “ghost chains” are much more prevalent across the industry than people want to admit.

In terms of the coins, there is no official way to declare bankruptcy for the coin. As long as small handful of people still “believe,” then the coin won’t go to literal $0.00 in price. Instead, we continue to see tokens lose a ton of value, which makes liquidity evaporate. The remaining holders are not able to get out of the coin, so they are effectively holding an asset that is dead. Maybe exchanges delist the illiquid coin, but usually the coins just stay stuck in irrelevancy. These “zombie coins” are also more prevalent than people want to admit.

Ghost chains and zombie coins make up a large percentage of the crypto industry. There are millions of coins and thousands of blockchains, so just these two phenomenons alone would make me original claim from my tweet accurate. Does anyone actually believe millions of crypto coins are going to thrive in the future? I doubt it.

People just don’t want to say the truth out loud, so I am happy to say it for them.

But there is more to the story. The second major crisis in crypto is a lack of true believers. The industry used to be defined by hardcore missionaries who would rather see bitcoin succeed than personally make money if they had to choose between the two options. The mission was more important than their personal success.

Those days are pretty much over. Missionaries are hard to find, instead the industry is littered with mercenaries willing to go wherever the financial reward is greatest. These mercenaries are purely focused on speculation, which means they are devoid of standing for any specific world view. If you don’t stand for something, you will fall for anything.

You can clearly see this mercenary effect in the short-lived meme tokens, the prevalence of scam coins, constant market manipulation, escalating yield farming rates, and various vapor-ware product launches designed to capture attention rather than solve problems for users.

Mercenaries outnumber the missionaries, so the broader crypto industry is now run by people who don’t understand or believe in the original vision for the industry.

Lastly, there is a clear divergence between the interests of the “investor class” and the “we hate investors class.” You can see the online commentary littered with people claiming that VCs are bad, the large financial institutions are a net negative for the industry, and that regulation shouldn’t exist in the industry.

These ideas are not only dumb, but they further contribute to the death of a large part of the industry. Venture capitalists literally funded almost every company that helped people buy, store, or send bitcoin for the first decade of the asset’s existence. Venture capitalist are responsible for funding most of the largest projects or coins in the space.

The large financial institutions are pouring capital into many different areas, which is maybe the most important thing to watch. These large, sophisticated companies are quickly eating market share from the crypto-native firms. So again, crypto is dying and it is being replaced by the incumbents.

Not every crypto-native company is going to get replaced, but the majority of them will be outcompeted or acquired by the legacy system. As each company falls or surrenders, another piece of the industry dies with it.

For example, Morgan Stanley just announced they are launching bitcoin trading on E*Trade, which has 8.6 million clients, but they are launching this trading with cheaper trading fees than Coinbase and Charles Schwab. What percentage of crypto trading volume is going to end up in traditional brokerage venues compared to crypto-native firms? Probably a lot.

At the same time, the crypto native firms are racing to add non-crypto components to their business. They are adding equities, prediction markets, options, commodities, and any other asset that will bring new customers, new assets under custody, and new revenue.

Lastly, Michael Saylor mentioned yesterday that he could potentially sell bitcoin in the future to fund the STRC dividend payments. Bitcoin’s price is higher today, which is a major narrative violation. This commentary from Saylor would have been blasphemy just a few years ago, but now it is a rational perspective given the state of the industry and the future growth prospects of Strategy.

The crypto industry is dying. Majority of the projects and coins are not going to make it. But those that survive will end up becoming important parts of the legacy financial system.

I couldn’t help myself from noticing the dichotomy of the Consensus conference yesterday. There were serious entrepreneurs and investors focused on building or funding solutions to real problems. There were also a large cast of pretenders who were running around holding on to a dream from 2018 that is never going to materialize.

Most of the crypto industry as we have known it is dead. I personally believe there are four major areas that will accrue value moving forward: bitcoin, stablecoins, infrastructure, and tokenization.

So not everything will die, but people need to adjust their perspective to incorporate the reality of the current market. I will leave you with a great example. As I walked into the Consensus conference yesterday, there was a large booth titled the “Crypto Carnival.”

We don’t need more carnivals. We need more people focused on building real things for real problems. Because if we don’t see that happen, the industry’s most talented people will move along to work on other innovative technologies like artificial intelligence, space travel, DNA sequencing, self-driving cars, or national defense.

Let the natural business cycle play out. We need the bad stuff to die and go away, so it makes room for the next good ideas.

Hope you all have a great day. I will talk to everyone next time.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

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Why Bitcoin, Stablecoins & Tokenization Push Prices MUCH Higher

Chris Perkins is the incoming Head of Crypto at Franklin Templeton, following the acquisition of his firm 250 Digital Asset Management. In this conversation, we break down the surge in crypto hacks, why AI is accelerating cyber threats, the case for American "privateering" as an offensive strategy against crypto crime, how geopolitics and macro are shaping bitcoin markets, and what institutions are actually buying in crypto right now.

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🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

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To investors,

The stock market continues to surge higher, but that makes capital allocators nervous. They begin thinking that stocks can’t grow to the sky forever. These sophisticated investors start talking about lost decades for various indexes in the past. General fear and uncertainty takes hold when stocks rally and investors refuse to believe it is sustainable.

But anyone questioning this rally is ignoring reality.

Hedgeye writes “The S&P 500 fully recovered from a -10% drawdown in just 11 trading sessions, the fastest V-shaped recovery on record.” I personally believe this happened because investors finally realized the temporary conflict in Iran is unlikely to be more important than the massive economic boom that is underway thanks to artificial intelligence, robotics, and the related power generation and data center buildout.

You can see this boom clearly in the latest manufacturing data. For the FOURTH month in a row, America’s manufacturing sector continues to expand based on the latest survey data. The US economy has seen strong manufacturing expansion over the last four months, suggesting that the US can reindustrialize and grow.

If we dig deeper into the data center metrics, it is truly shocking what is happening. Matthew Klein has a great report that shows the business investment in data center construction more than tripling over the last 3 years.

What about net imports of selected AI-related goods? Those have taken off to significantly higher levels too. The contributions to real GDP growth coming from computers and peripheral products is not higher than it was at any point in the 60 years. That is just mind-boggling considering this data set includes the internet invention and initial build out, along with the Dot Com boom.

What if we look at the quarterly CAPEX spending by the big 5 publicly-traded data center builders? That has quadrupled since mid-2023 according to Klein. A 4x increase in about 3 years is honestly hard to comprehend.

Everyone wants in on the data center action too. This past week the Wall Street Journal’s Kate Clark reported that “Coatue is launching a new venture, Next Frontier, to buy land for AI data centers. Tens of billions could go into the effort, with early work underway on an Indiana campus.”

Coatue is one of the best investment firms in the world. They don’t do things by accident and they tend to be early and right about new trends, so it is noteworthy that they are looking to deploy tens of billions of dollars into this theme right when many others think it is too hot or too overvalued.

But here is where everything gets interesting. This data center build out and CAPEX spending is starting to flow through the economy in interesting ways. YCombinator’s Garry Tan recently highlighted for every one-gigawatt data center complex, we create 5,322 permanent jobs, there is over $150 million paid per year in state taxes, and there is about $250 million paid per year in local taxes. In the short-term, during construction various companies make an estimated $2.7 billion in combined investment too.

It is impossible to ignore just how much capital is being invested and the positive ramifications coming from this data center build out. But we don’t just see the positive impact in job creation and government taxes paid either.

For example, the big fear a year ago was that AI would destroy lots of software engineering jobs. Citadel’s Frank Flight put that worry to rest when he recently wrote:

“We illustrated back in February that demand for software engineers, the most AI exposed occupation was accelerating higher, which we argued violates the displacement narrative. Indeed the acceleration in software job postings has continued, now up 18% from the inflection point in May last year.”

Personally I find the growth of engineer hires interesting because at the same time you can see that overall job postings across the economy has been declining at the same time. So not only are engineers more in-demand on an aggregate basis than they were a year ago, but the gap has significantly widened on a comparative basis.

Narrative violation to say the least. Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang was recently asked about the impact of AI on various jobs in the economy and it would be safe to say he vehemently disagrees with recent comments from some of the large model company CEOs. Take a listen:

Now these comments from Jensen are very important because job creation is universally good across the globe. We know that the United States will prosper with more jobs and more economic productivity, but the positive impact on other societies in less developed nations is even bigger. World Bank CEO Ajay Banga recently talked about this phenomenon of using job creation to create economic prosperity. Here is how he described it (22 minute mark):

So if AI is going to continue driving immense economic value and job creation globally, where are new areas that economic value is going to accrue? Everyone knows the common themes of data center builders, power generators, chemical companies, commodity providers, chip manufacturers, and others.

But maybe the best investment theme is to believe that the current winners, such as Anthropic and OpenAI, will end up being significantly larger than everyone believes. Sometimes the contrarian bet is not on a new company, but believing something about the existing companies that no one else believes.

Just look at Anthropic’s recent revenue growth. Anthropic is now reportedly doing $44 billion in annual recurring revenue. This is up $14 billion (almost up 50% month-over-month) since last month. If they added $14 billion in the last 30 days, that means they are doing almost half a billion dollars in revenue PER DAY. That is nearly impossible to comprehend for a company that was only started a few years ago.

So if you are wondering what is going on in the US equities market, it all comes back to the AI trade. There is a generational build out of new infrastructure and the global race to see who can capture and own the most compute. Investors realize that value is going to be created from scratch, so they are plowing money into the market looking to benefit from this persistent tailwind.

Wars, undisciplined monetary policy, mainstream narratives, or any other potential boogey man is not going to be able to stop this trend. Stocks are going higher, because AI is just warming up.

Hope you have a great start to your week. I will talk to everyone next time.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR).

🚨New Profile Just Dropped

My wife Polina just published a new profile, and this one is worth your time. She spent months with Jake and Logan Paul, not the internet characters, but the actual people behind the persona. What she found is a genuinely interesting business story.

They’ve backed OpenAI, Anduril, Ramp, and Whatnot. Jake says he will be a liquid billionaire by 35. Whether you believe him or not, the way they’ve turned attention into ownership is a playbook worth understanding.

Read It Here

Why All-Time High Stocks Are Bullish for Bitcoin

Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack.

In this conversation, we discuss why the stock market keeps hitting all-time highs, the AI-driven semiconductor supercycle, why software is losing to chips and power names, where bitcoin fits into the macro picture, the rise of tokenization, and how to think about inflation and the Fed.

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🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

Are you ready to seize the day that will change your life, guaranteed? You invest in wealth creation every day, but what’s the point of it without an optimal healthspan?

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Use code POMP and receive $1,000 off the cost of a life-changing membership with Fountain Life when you schedule a call.

Schedule A Call

To investors,

The US stock market is on fire. The S&P 500 gained 10.4% in the month of April, which is the 13th time in history that the index gained at least 10% during a single month. Of those 12 other times, only twice was the S&P 500 not higher 12 months later.

Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick shows the average return 12 months later has been nearly 14%, which suggests current stock investors are poised for strong performance through the rest of this year.

Yesterday’s new all-time high in the S&P marked the 7th all-time high during April. Bluekurtic Market Insights explains “this often indicates more new highs are yet to come. Since 1950, the S&P recorded 7+ April all-time highs only 7 other times. In each case, the year ended positive, with a median gain of 26%.”

Strength begets more strength. All-time highs bring more all-time highs.

But we are seeing strong positive performance across the entire stock market, not just in the S&P. JC Parets writes “the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Dow Jones Transportation Average, Nasdaq 100, S&P 400 Mid-caps, Russell 2000 Small-caps, the Russell Micro-cap Index and the S&P 500 Large-caps all just closed the month at the highest levels in American history, again.”

Not bad for a stock market that people predicted would have entered the next Great Depression last year, or a market that was supposed to suffer because of the Iran war and short-term oil shock.

So why is this happening? Why is the stock market so resilient in the face of global conflict?

Jim Bianco had a great take recently where he described the market’s psychology. He explained his view by saying “Why is the stock market ignoring 4.41% on the 10 year note? Why is the stock market ignoring $120 on crude oil? I would argue to you that the stock market believes the single biggest story today is AI. It believes in the power that AI is going to be transformative for the US economy. That is driving it more than whatever’s happening in the Strait of Hormuz.”

I agree with Jim. It may sound crazy, but Americans are not going to be affected as much by what happens in the Strait. Artificial intelligence is already infiltrating their lives, empowering higher levels of productivity, and driving the costs of certain goods and services down.

The conflict in Iran is driving oil prices higher, and by extension the CPI numbers, but Americans are less dependent on oil than ever and the increase in inflation is still within the range of the last few years so the comparative change is less noticeable.

On top of those facts, the market likely understands that AI is a structural tailwind to the economy and society, whereas the conflict and resulting oil prices will be temporary.

Regardless of whether you agree or not, the market is screaming from the top of its lungs. It is telling us that investors don’t care about the Iran-related issues. There is one game in town and that game is AI. Until we see some material issues in the AI market, I would expect the US stock market to continue going higher.

You are going to see it in semiconductors, data centers, power generation, model companies, large scale tech firms, commodities, chemicals, photonics, and many other verticals. This is a wide-spread, generational bull market that we are living through.

The best investors find a trend and ride it for as long as possible. AI is presenting that opportunity right now. The question is whether you have the courage to jump onboard and hold on tight for the ride.

Hope everyone has a great day. I will talk to everyone on Monday.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

🚨 ProCap Insights: Agentic Research for Investors Who Want To Make Money

Last week, ProCap Financial launched ProCap Insights, the first agentic research offering in finance.

Leveraging the latest AI, ProCap Insights offers institutional-grade research to help independent investors make more informed investment decisions. Reports cover single-name stocks, thematic trends, and macro analysis across sectors and asset classes.

Subscribe for 60% off today

Bitcoiners Predict MASSIVE Bull Market

I sat down to breakdown the biggest bitcoin predictions coming out of this year’s Bitcoin Conference. In this episode, I cover Arthur Hayes on digital credit driving the next bull run, Michael Saylor on the explosion of digital credit markets, Tim Draper on why it’s now irresponsible for companies not to hold bitcoin, a major upcoming announcement from the White House on the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, SEC Chair Paul Atkins on regulation as a catalyst, and Paul Tudor Jones on bitcoin as the best inflation hedge alive.

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🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

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To investors,

I have a confession to make: I was wrong about AI.

Very wrong actually. It is no secret that I have been a bull on the technology for awhile and I think the impact on society is going to be positive. I believe AI will lead to economic abundance, while accelerating the United States even further into the future.

I still believe that stuff. I actually believe it more today than ever before.

But now I realize I got some of the details wrong. For example, I thought AI was going to destroy a significant number of jobs. I don’t believe that anymore.

I have completely changed my mind on how AI will impact jobs in America.

Previously, I believed AI would replace many entry level roles typically filled by young employees. The technology would then work its way up the organization and eventually reduce the total number of jobs in a company. Entry level job replacement was the wedge, followed by a “land-and-expand” adoption curve throughout the organization.

The data is telling us something different is happening though, so when I get new information I am willing to change my mind.

The number of software engineers being hired has been increasing. The number of open software engineer roles is growing.

The number of new college grads who get hired has increased 5.6% over the last 12 months. The unemployment level for people aged 20-24 years old who have a college degree has fallen from nearly 9% to almost 5% as well.

The Wall Street Journal recently wrote “AI created 640,000 jobs between 2023 and 2025 in the U.S., according to an analysis by LinkedIn of job posting data, including new white-collar positions such as Head of AI and AI engineer.”

And I am starting to see companies throughout our portfolio aggressively hiring to keep up with the demand for their products and services.

If AI can make employees more productive, which is widely accepted as fact, then companies are going to want as many productive units of labor as possible. This is a key reason why I am changing my mind.

AI appears to be a magical technology that will make companies more productive and more profitable. The net result will be more corporations, more startups, and more jobs.

All three are big, positive wins for the American economy.

When I tweeted these thoughts recently, I was shocked at how many people agreed with my new perspective. Palantir cofounder Joe Lonsdale loves the positive impact on America, Marc Andreessen said “this is the way,” Box CEO Aaron Levie said “the better AI gets at performing tasks, the more companies can take on those tasks, which leads to hiring more people to do the surrounding work of those tasks,” and Zynga founder Mark Pincus said “I share this view that AI is and will be the biggest job generator the world has ever seen.”

Now some of you may wonder how to reconcile this epiphany with the various headlines of companies laying off so many employees. The short answer is that companies are using AI as an excuse, but they aren’t actually letting people go because AI is taking their job.

Steven Sinofsky put it perfectly when he responded to me saying “the layoffs are clearly still all about over-hiring and under-managing. The demand for labor is going to skyrocket as companies learn what AI does. Just as the demand for labor increased as computing diffused through product and service delivery.”

This is why everyone is sinking so much money into the AI industry. Whoever wins the race to provide the hardware and software to every company on earth is going to be worth trillions of dollars. There may literally be no bigger addressable market than selling low-cost, high-value intelligence to millions of companies and billions of people.

The model companies like OpenAI, Anthropic, and others get most of the coverage because there is unlimited demand for their products. Anthropic added $11 billion in annualized revenue in a single month. That is just absurd. OpenAI and Microsoft just renegotiated their deal so that it is non-exclusive now for OpenAI. That is a sign just how many enterprises are banging down the door for this technology.

People are confused on how companies are adopting AI though. Take Base Power in Texas. Justin Lopas, one of their cofounders, recently tweeted the following:

“In the span of ~3 months, the team at Base Power has built out operational tools that replace or avoid the purchase of an enormous amount of SaaS.

Token costs might actually equal the cost of buying the SaaS, but cost isn’t the point.

It’s the fact that the tools are perfectly tailored to our operations, infinitely customizeable going forward, and tied into our data.

A sampling:

• Warehouse Management System (WMS)

• Manufacturing Execution System

• CRM for B2B sales

• Material Requirements Planning (MRP)

• Sales & Operations Planning tool

• Labor crew management, forecasting, and associated vehicles tool

• Policy objectives and stakeholders tracker

• Countless dashboards for each team

The impact that AI has had on our business is incredible.”

This is an important nuance from Justin. Companies are not only adopting AI because of the cost savings, which frankly is still not fully understood. They are looking for customized software that is tied into their workflows and systems. They want software that makes their employees more productive and their companies more profitable.

So I knew that AI was going to be valuable. I knew we could accelerate the country and the economy. But I didn’t realize how fast the adoption curve would happen, nor did I fully appreciate that AI is going to be a job generator, rather than a job destroyer.

When you get new information, you change your mind. That is what I have done over the last few weeks. Nothing wrong with that. I just want to seek out the truth and then apply it to my investing framework.

Hope you all have a great day. I will talk to you next time.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

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Bitcoiners Predict MASSIVE Bull Market

I sat down to breakdown the biggest bitcoin predictions coming out of this year’s Bitcoin Conference. In this episode, I cover Arthur Hayes on digital credit driving the next bull run, Michael Saylor on the explosion of digital credit markets, Tim Draper on why it's now irresponsible for companies not to hold bitcoin, a major upcoming announcement from the White House on the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve, SEC Chair Paul Atkins on regulation as a catalyst, and Paul Tudor Jones on bitcoin as the best inflation hedge alive.

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2. Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)

3. Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com

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6. Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold

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8. Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

I’m speaking on the Mainstage at Consensus Miami this May 5-7 — the event the entire industry shows up for, from Wall Street, the White House, and all of Web3. 20,000+ decision-makers. 72% director-level or above. Three days where deals get signed, funds get raised, and the next cycle gets shaped.

This year’s agenda tackles the three forces driving trillions on-chain and reshaping global finance: crypto at scale, institutional integration, and agentic commerce. You can’t afford to miss it.

Use code POMPLIANO for 25% off your pass and join me there.

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To investors,

Momentum begets momentum. Returns attract capital. New all-time high stock prices bring even higher prices. And nowhere in finance is there more momentum and returns than in technology stocks.

Bluekurtic Market Insights writes “for the first time in 17 years, the Nasdaq 100 is up four consecutive weeks with gains exceeding 18%. This kind of momentum is usually bullish for the Nasdaq. One month later, the index was higher in six of seven cases, with a median gain of 8.5%.”

A big reason why the Nasdaq is doing so well is because of semiconductor stocks. Depending on how you count, there are about 15-18 semiconductor stocks in the Nasdaq index and Opening Bell’s Phil Rosen points out how well those companies have done.

Semiconductors are destroying software stocks this year.

- iShares Semi ETF $SOXX +53%
- iShares Software ETF $IGV -19%

72% spread between 2 sides of the AI trade.

Any time investors see a sector explode in popularity like these semiconductor stocks have in the last few weeks, it begs the question on whether the returns have already been captured by the market. David Marlin writes “77% of [the semiconductor index] ($SOX) constituents are overbought, the second highest reading in the last 20 years.

After similar readings, short-term returns were generally muted (2 week average of -1.9%, 1 month average +0.2%), but returns 5+ months out have been extremely positive.”

The average return 6 months out has been about 19%, which would suggest that semiconductor stocks have a lot of room to run if history repeats itself.

These semiconductor stocks are a big reason the S&P 500 has made a miraculous recovery from its dismal start to the year. Creative Planning’s Charlie Bilello writes “On March 30, the S&P 500 was down 7% in 2026, the 12th worst start to a year in history. After one of the biggest 4-week rallies ever, it's now up +5% YTD and above the average year at this point in time (+3%). There is no impossible in markets.”

This is noteworthy because many investors are worried the market is overvalued right now. Take Global Markets Investor as one example. They write “The US stock market is EXTREMELY EXPENSIVE. The number of large stocks with a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio above 10, and year-over-year price gains above +100% has surged to ~175, the highest level since the 2021 meme stock frenzy. Excluding 2021, this is the highest level since the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble burst.”

But if you just look at historical valuations, you miss the bigger picture. Daily Chartbook highlights “With 28% of the index reported, 84% of companies have delivered higher-than-expected EPS. This is above the 5- and 10-year averages. In aggregate, companies are reporting EPS that are 12.3% above estimates. This is also higher than the 5- and 10-year averages.”

Mike Zaccardi also points out that “tech is at an all-time high, but its P/E is still 8 figures lower than the October 2025 high.”

So are stocks overvalued? It isn’t clear to me that people should be worried. In fact, there are numerous areas in financial markets that are not performing as well as semiconductors or tech more broadly.

Charlie Bilello highlights that “with the exception of Bitcoin, every major asset class is now in positive territory on the year.”

And Jim Bianco shows that defense stocks are getting crushed during the Iran war. Big narrative violation for both bitcoin and defense stocks.

But just because these assets have not done incredibly well doesn’t mean they can’t turn it around in the coming days.

Take bitcoin for example. Frank Fetter shows that “long-term holder supply is going absolutely vertical. Not a lot of sellers.”

And he explains that “historical premiums [are] being paid to short bitcoin here at $78,000, three standard deviations away from the mean. The shorts are playing with fire right now.”

So you have significant accumulation underway, along with short-sellers piling into an over-extended trade, which puts together the perfect ingredients for an asset like bitcoin to surge higher. Add in the backdrop of stocks going higher, along with Kevin Warsh potentially becoming the next Fed Chairman, and you have more components to a story where all asset prices are going to appreciate rapidly.

We are in a generational bull market. We have been locked in this environment since we came out of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. The central bank is supporting the market in a way that was previously deemed off limits. So whenever you see a pessimist promising you how bad the future will be, or how much destruction you will see in your portfolio, just remember to never buy into nonsense.

The modern Industrial Revolution is underway. We are rebuilding the infrastructure necessary for America to prosper for the next 100 years. Owning a piece of that trend is likely to pay off handsomely for those who are willing to do the work and understand what is happening.

Hope everyone has a great day. I will talk to you next time.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

Why Bitcoin WINS No Matter What Happens to Inflation

Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack.

In this conversation, we discuss why bitcoin is decoupling from software stocks, how it wins in both inflationary and deflationary environments, and the five scarcity-driven investment baskets Jordi is tracking right now. We also get into the AI agents shift, why public companies are struggling to adopt AI, and how to position a portfolio in a world of shortages.

Podcast Sponsors

1. Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.

2. Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)

3. Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com

4. Consensus Miami - May 5-7 • Join 20,000 decision-makers for the convergence of crypto, capital & culture. Save 25% with POMPLIANO.

5. Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com

6. Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold

7. BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $2,000 in rewards.

8. Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

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To investors,

The mainstream media has not exactly been fans of bitcoin over the years. They have pronounced the digital currency dead hundreds of times. They have enjoyed mocking and ridiculing bitcoin investors during the large, nasty price drawdowns during bear markets. And they have pushed a narrative that bitcoin is only used by terrorists and drug dealers.

They know this stuff is not true, yet they have published the nonsense anyways. But every once in a while, I come across someone in the mainstream media that is intellectually honest. These rare individuals are genuinely curious about bitcoin and want to better understand why so many people have become fans of the asset.

That is why I was excited to talk to New York Times columnist Ross Douthat when he invited me to come on his podcast to discuss bitcoin. Ross hosts wide-ranging conversations on his show “Interesting Times” and I have always found him to be someone doing their best to understand the world around them.

Our conversation was published yesterday and you can watch it here:

I took two things away from this conversation. First, it has been awhile since I have had to explain the basics of bitcoin, including “what is bitcoin?,” “why is bitcoin valuable to the average person?,” and “who uses bitcoin?”

It is easy for bitcoiners and professional investors to get stuck in an echo chamber. We think everyone knows about bitcoin, understands the pros/cons, and is making sophisticated capital allocation decisions. That is obviously not the case. Ross really pushed me to explain bitcoin in simple terms for an audience that may not know a single thing about bitcoin. This was fun to do and hopefully my answers resonated with his listeners.

Second, Ross raised a number of complex questions in the second half of the interview. How does bitcoin thrive in a world of inflation or deflation? How should we think about the President’s family and their intimate involvement in bitcoin? What are the inherent risks with investing in bitcoin vs traditional assets?

I have spent a lot of time thinking about the nuances of bitcoin, including how it interacts with investment portfolios, geopolitics, and the economy. This part of the conversation was where Ross and I were able to exchange different opinions and perspectives. I think many of you will find it interesting to hear how Ross thinks about bitcoin and the pros/cons.

You can read the transcript and New York Times article by clicking here.

My goal in doing this interview was to spread the word about bitcoin to an audience that is unlikely to have spent much time on it, along with represent the bitcoin community well to the New York Times listeners. There are things I probably could have explained better, but hopefully I did a good enough job to make folks proud of the progress we have collectively made.

Spend a few minutes today listening to the conversation and let’s show the New York Times how passionate and engaged the bitcoin community is. Hope you all have a great end to your week. I will talk to everyone on Monday.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

🚨 ProCap Insights: Agentic Research for Investors Who Want To Make Money

Last week, ProCap Financial launched ProCap Insights, the first agentic research offering in finance.

Leveraging the latest AI, ProCap Insights offers institutional-grade research to help independent investors make more informed investment decisions. Reports cover single-name stocks, thematic trends, and macro analysis across sectors and asset classes.

Subscribe for 60% off today

How Michael Saylor Bet Billions on Bitcoin

In this conversation, we revisit the very first time Michael Saylor ever publicly talked about bitcoin — recorded in late 2020 when bitcoin was trading around $10,000.

We discuss his background founding MicroStrategy at age 24, the macro conditions that led him to reject cash as a store of value, why he chose bitcoin over gold and real estate, how he acquired $425 million in bitcoin without moving the market, and why he believes bitcoin is on a path to rival or surpass gold's market cap.

Podcast Sponsors

1. Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.

2. Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)

3. Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com

4. Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com

5. Consensus Miami - May 5-7 • Join 20,000 decision-makers for the convergence of crypto, capital & culture. Save 25% with POMPLIANO.

6. Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold

7. BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $2,000 in rewards.

8. Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

I’m speaking on the Mainstage at Consensus Miami this May 5-7 — the event the entire industry shows up for, from Wall Street, the White House, and all of Web3. 20,000+ decision-makers. 72% director-level or above. Three days where deals get signed, funds get raised, and the next cycle gets shaped.

This year’s agenda tackles the three forces driving trillions on-chain and reshaping global finance: crypto at scale, institutional integration, and agentic commerce. You can’t afford to miss it.

Use code POMPLIANO for 25% off your pass and join me there.

REGISTER & SAVE

To investors,

The President of the United States stepped up to the podium in the Rose Garden last April and he unleashed chaos in financial markets. His announcement of sweeping tariffs on all US imports sent markets into a free fall, academics began having a panic attack, and the internet exploded with various predictions of the next Great Depression.

Of course, this reaction was a complete waste of everyone’s time. The stock market eventually rallied higher and we got new all-time highs every few days. The “experts” were wrong and investors who ignored the noise did very well.

But there was one part of the mainstream analysis that seemed crazy to me at the time: the “experts” kept promising sky-high inflation from the tariffs. As I tweeted multiple times during April 2025, I felt strongly that deflation was a much bigger risk than inflation at the time.

One tweet on April 10, 2025 read: “All the consensus-seeking finance folks told you that tariffs are inflationary, but I will continue to point out that the much bigger risk is deflation.” I still stand by that statement.

You don’t have to believe me, nor do you have to listen to me say it anymore. Kevin Warsh, the next Federal Reserve Chairman, was on CNBC recently and he explicitly stated his belief that technology was going to bring structural price decline and deflation was a serious risk that the Fed should prepare for.

Take a listen to his comments:

AI is going to make everything cost less. We could be at the front-end of a productivity boom. We are probably in the early stages of a structural decline in prices.

These are sentences being said on national television from the man who will be in charge of the Federal Reserve. If you don’t clearly see that the Fed will continue to cut interest rates in the coming months and years, I am not sure if any piece of information will convince you.

Now some of you will claim that Warsh is merely a Trump puppet who knows he has to cut rates to avoid conflict with the President. Others will claim that short-term price increases in oil, or longer-term price increases in commodities, will lead to higher levels of inflation, which would prevent the Fed from aggressively cutting interest rates.

I have no clue what Warsh’s politics are, nor do I have any idea how he will interact with the President. We will have to wait and see on that critique to see what ends up being true. Regarding higher levels of inflation though, it is fairly obvious to me that deflation remains a much bigger risk than inflation for the US economy.

Are oil and gas prices up? Yes. Are commodity prices up? Yes. But the US economy is much more dependent on technology than it has ever been, which is important because technology has been significantly reducing the price of a plethora of goods and services across the US economy.

That structural decline in prices that Warsh mentioned is widely misunderstood. For example, Jeff Booth has said before that “the natural state of a free market is deflation. Prices fall to their marginal cost of production.” If Jeff is right, which I believe he is, then we should expect prices to continue falling, especially as AI and robotics accelerate.

Intelligent critics of this world view will immediately point out that the US government is printing money, the national debt continues to worsen, and inflation has almost always followed these undisciplined spending habits. I don’t disagree that history shows us inflation would usually occur from the spending.

The difference in this moment is the deflationary forces that are swallowing the US economy. We have tariffs, deportations, AI, and robotics that are working together to bring an incredibly strong force into the economy. As Elon Musk has previously said, the US government won’t be able to print enough money to overcome the deflationary force.

I know that sounds crazy. It feels weird to say. But the more I look at the data, the more I believe this perspective to be true: deflation is the bigger risk than inflation.

One of the first big tests for this thesis was the tariffs last year. The market expected high inflation, but the deflationary forces prevented the high inflation from ever showing up.

The second big test of the thesis will be in the coming 2-3 months. Most investors believe inflation is going to surge higher, including CPI readings above 5% year-over-year, but measurements like Truflation suggest that CPI will remain more subdued. If we don’t see CPI fly higher, then it will be clear to those paying attention that deflationary forces are having an outsized impact on the economy.

Lastly, the third and final test of our thesis is whether we see consumer prices start to fall in a material manner. It is not good enough if consumer prices stop going up. That is nice, but it doesn’t provide the type of deflationary pressure that makes life more affordable. Flat prices only ensure life is not getting MORE unaffordable.

But if prices start to come down for the American consumer, that is when the economy could hit an economic golden age. This would allow for a high growth, low inflation environment. Quite literally, the dream of central bankers around the world.

Every American should be praying for the AI companies to usher in an aggressive deflationary force that improves affordability, while ensuring GDP growth. If we can get that done, every politician, central banker, and regulator will look like a genius.

Who cares which bureaucrat takes credit for the economic win. The American people simply want lower prices, so they can pursue economic prosperity. Let’s hope we get everything we dreamed of.

Have a great day. I will talk to everyone tomorrow.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

🚨 ProCap Insights: Agentic Research for Investors Who Want To Make Money

Last week, ProCap Financial launched ProCap Insights, the first agentic research offering in finance.

Leveraging the latest AI, ProCap Insights offers institutional-grade research to help independent investors make more informed investment decisions. Reports cover single-name stocks, thematic trends, and macro analysis across sectors and asset classes.

Subscribe for 60% off today

Bitcoin Bull Market Is HAPPENING NOW

Bitcoin is in a bull market right now. So I sat down to breakdown the data — from institutional moves like Morgan Stanley's record ETF launch to Bitcoin's track record across 7 financial crises — and make the case for why the next all-time high is closer than most people think.

Podcast Sponsors

1. Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.

2. Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)

3. Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com

4. Consensus Miami - May 5-7 • Join 20,000 decision-makers for the convergence of crypto, capital & culture. Save 25% with POMPLIANO.

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6. Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold

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8. Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

I believe prediction markets are going to become a much larger aspect of financial markets in the coming years. Today these markets are full of young people gambling on stupid things like what words are mentioned at a press conference, what color tie someone wears to an event, or if certain cultural events occur or not.

These types of childish markets will either be regulated away or they will fall in relevance as more traditional finance-related markets become the dominant use case.

The most interesting part of prediction markets for investors is the ability to isolate individual data points in their capital allocation strategy. Rather than having to buy indirect exposure to interest rates, prediction markets allow you to exclusively bet on what the exact interest rate will be at the next Fed meeting. Rather than buying or selling various assets in anticipation of a recession, prediction markets allow you to directly bet on whether a recession happens or not.

And prediction markets also allow you to wager capital on individual earnings report data points (ex: Tesla car deliveries) instead of having to buy a company’s stock and take the full exposure to the entire earnings report.

An obvious use case for these types of markets would be farmers who are looking to leverage prediction markets as a replacement for their current hedging or insurance strategies. Kalshi, the largest prediction market in the world, recently announced their intention to double down on commodities for these use cases.

Given my belief in prediction markets for investors, and Kalshi’s agreement in the same theme, I am excited to announce this morning that Kalshi has partnered with ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR) to launch a dedicated institutional-grade research offering that will exclusively cover prediction markets.

This new product is available to any paying members of ProCap Insights, our agentic research offering. We have been using our agentic AI research system to dig through the Kalshi data over the last few days and the findings are incredibly interesting.

We have found numerous times where Kalshi traders called the bluff on Wall Street analysts and were right. We have found significantly mispriced markets on Kalshi and traditional exchanges. And we have found economic data points that were confirmed on Kalshi days before they were reported in the legacy system.

I believe the combination of agentic AI with prediction market data will help investors be better informed, while positioning them to make more money. Our team is excited about this partnership and looking forward to sharing the various insights we find.

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour told Reuters the following about our partnership: “prediction markets turn uncertainty about real-world events into actionable signals. We’re partnering with ProCap Financial to bring wisdom-of-the-crowds intelligence directly to financial research, so both retail and institutional investors can benefit from this data and analysis.”

You can subscribe to read the research: Click here

Subscribe by midnight for 60% discount

Our team will continue to build ProCap Insights, the first agentic research offering in finance, into a resource that helps investors make money. Please consider subscribing if you are looking for investment ideas and insights.

Hope everyone has a great day. I will talk to you next time.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

All-Time High Stocks… Bitcoin About To Explode?

Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience. In this conversation, we break down why AI is creating massive shortages in chips, energy, and commodities—and what that means for inflation and markets.

We also discuss why stocks keep hitting highs despite economic pressure, how scarcity is becoming the most important investing theme, and why bitcoin could be setting up for a major move.

Podcast Sponsors

1. Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.

2. Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)

3. Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com

4. Consensus Miami - May 5-7 • Join 20,000 decision-makers for the convergence of crypto, capital & culture. Save 25% with POMPLIANO.

5. Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com

6. BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $2,000 in rewards.

7. Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold.

8. Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

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To investors,

When the world experiences chaos and uncertainty, capital allocators want safe haven assets to protect their portfolio. These safe havens allow investors to weather the storm in the short-term, but also protect their capital over the long-run.

Historically, investors have looked to dollars, treasuries, and gold as the best safe haven assets. We now have new data that suggests bitcoin has taken the crown and become king of the safe haven assets.

Onramp, a bitcoin financial services firm, just published this table that shows bitcoin has outperformed other assets during the last 7 crises in financial markets:

This shows that bitcoin outperformed the S&P 500 and gold in every one of the negative financial events since 2020. It doesn’t matter if there was a global pandemic, foreign countries invading their neighbors, domestic policy decisions like tariffs, or a national banking crisis. Bitcoin’s 60 day return was the best every single time.

Now this doesn’t mean that investors should drop other assets from their portfolio and allocate all of their capital to bitcoin. That would be irresponsible. However, it does mean that investors who have zero exposure to bitcoin are doing themselves a disservice.

Buying and holding bitcoin is a prudent capital allocation strategy.

Our friends at Bitcoin Archive recently highlighted a Bitwise study that showed the probability of loss based on various holding periods. The crypto asset manager says “as time horizons grow, bitcoin losses fall off.”

The most interesting part of this analysis is that once someone has held bitcoin for at least 3 years, the probability of loss falls to under 1%. In the professional game of risk-taking, 1% probabilities may as well be 0%.

But how you buy bitcoin can drastically enhance the results. Take this video that recently went viral showing an investor who has been buying $10 of bitcoin per day for the last 7 years. He invested just over $25,000 in total, yet his portfolio is now worth more than $10 million.

If you are like me, you immediately wondered why you haven’t been dollar cost averaging on a daily basis for the last few years. Smart capital allocation works with any asset, but it delivers significant outperformance when the strategy involves deploying capital into an asset that has a 10-year compound annual growth rate near 70%.

Institutions aren’t going to dollar cost average into bitcoin on a daily basis. But they will definitely pay attention when they see it outperforming other safe haven assets during various financial crises over multiple years.

The data is overwhelming. Bitcoin is the king of safe haven assets. Only those who refuse to change their mind when presented with new information remain unconvinced.

Hope you all have a great start to your week. I will talk to everyone tomorrow.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

🚨 ProCap Insights: Agentic Research for Investors Who Want To Make Money

Last week, ProCap Financial launched ProCap Insights, the first agentic research offering in finance.

Leveraging the latest AI, ProCap Insights offers institutional-grade research to help independent investors make more informed investment decisions. Reports cover single-name stocks, thematic trends, and macro analysis across sectors and asset classes.

Subscribe for 60% off today

All-Time High Stocks… Bitcoin About To Explode?

Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience. In this conversation, we break down why AI is creating massive shortages in chips, energy, and commodities—and what that means for inflation and markets.

We also discuss why stocks keep hitting highs despite economic pressure, how scarcity is becoming the most important investing theme, and why bitcoin could be setting up for a major move.

Podcast Sponsors

1. Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.

2. Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)

3. Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com

4. Consensus Miami - May 5-7 • Join 20,000 decision-makers for the convergence of crypto, capital & culture. Save 25% with POMPLIANO.

5. Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com

6. BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $2,000 in rewards.

7. Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold.

8. Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

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To investors,

Wall Street can’t get enough bitcoin right now. You wouldn’t know it though if you read the headlines about bitcoin’s price action. Yes, the digital currency has fallen about 40% from the recent all-time high price of $126,000, but that hasn’t stopped the largest institutions on Wall Street from jumping head first into the deep end.

Strategy’s STRC preferred equity continues to see record inflows, including multiple days of more than $1 billion in trading volume, with almost no divergence from par. This type of liquidity on a relatively new security is impressive regardless of the underlying asset, but the fact that it has happened with a new product (digital credit) should be eye-opening to everyone about where the future is headed.

Morgan Stanley, one of the oldest investment banks in the world, recently launched their bitcoin ETF. Even though they waited awhile after their finance peers had launched similar products, Morgan Stanley reported more than $100 million of inflows in the first week. This makes the bitcoin ETF their best ETF launch in the history of the firm.

If you don’t think that will get people’s attention internally, I don’t know what to tell you. Finance is a numbers game and everyone is looking for growth. When you do something no one in your firm has done in 100+ years, leadership takes notice and starts asking what else can the firm do in that vertical.

As if these two data points weren’t enough, Charles Schwab is reportedly preparing to offer direct trading of bitcoin in their consumer products. This is supposedly in an effort to compete with Robinhood and other modern retail brokerages that have seen a surge in crypto trading volumes.

A big reason that Charles Schwab is having to respond to Robinhood is that Robinhood’s growth rate is double the incumbent’s growth rate in every major metric.

You can read a complete breakdown of the two businesses in the latest ProCap Insights report here.

Lastly, price performance begets more price performance. Bitcoin may be down 40% from the all-time high, but the asset is up nearly 16% since the Iran war kicked off. Bitcoin is up about 26% from the local bottom of $60,000 back in February.

That type of strength will bring confidence back in the market, which brings capital flows. The new Wall Street tools of treasury companies, ETFs, and direct trading on incumbent platforms will bring more capital as well.

This continued persistent bid in the market should be a great tailwind for bitcoin the rest of this year. Plus, the US stock market is ready to rocket higher thanks to the V-shaped recovery it just experienced (last 5 times this happened, stocks rallied higher), so bitcoin is likely to be a big winner in this euphoric bull market.

The widely reported death of bitcoin has been greatly exaggerated. The asset is as strong as ever. And the largest pools of capital are falling over each other trying to get in the game.

Hope you all have a great weekend. I will talk to you on Monday.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

🚨 ProCap Insights: Agentic Research for Investors Who Want To Make Money

Last week, ProCap Financial launched ProCap Insights, the first agentic research offering in finance.

Leveraging the latest AI, ProCap Insights offers institutional-grade research to help independent investors make more informed investment decisions. Reports cover single-name stocks, thematic trends, and macro analysis across sectors and asset classes.

Subscribe for 60% off today

Former Citadel Trader is Now Betting on Retail

Neil McDonald is the CEO of Moomoo US and a former executive at Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, and Citadel.

In this conversation, we break down how retail investing has evolved—from access and information to powerful tools and AI that are leveling the playing field with Wall Street. We also discuss crypto, tokenized stocks, and what the future of investing looks like.

Podcast Sponsors

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2. Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)

3. Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com

4. Consensus Miami - May 5-7 • Join 20,000 decision-makers for the convergence of crypto, capital & culture. Save 25% with POMPLIANO.

5. Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com

6. BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $2,000 in rewards.

7. Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold.

8. Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

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To investors,

We can trace the root cause of many societal problems back to the destruction of the US dollar over the last few years. Heritage’s EJ Antoni recently pointed out “cumulative inflation since Jan 2021 is between 23.6% and 27.1%, depending on which index we’re using.”

These are big numbers that have negative consequences on real people. And these are just the government numbers. If we look at Truflation, they are reporting the compounded inflation since January 2020 is just under 30%. For the approximately 50% of Americans who hold 100% of their assets in US dollars, this is devastating debasement of their savings.

The Fed’s own data confirms this problem. The report M2 money supply has tripled since 2008 and purchasing power of the dollar is down 38% since 2008.

The average American’s savings has become a melting ice cube sitting in the sun on a hot summer day.

But compounded inflation and loss of purchasing power doesn’t tell the full story. Nominal wage growth in the US has been impressive over the last half decade. There is more money sloshing around the system and some of it finds its way into the consumer’s pockets.

EJ goes on to show the average American’s weekly paycheck can buy 3% less goods today compared to January 2021.

The inflation story has been widely covered, but the acceleration in wages has been largely ignored. The problem is that inflation creates second and third-order effects that eat away at an economy and a society. Home affordability is one good example.

Home prices have been increasing at a faster pace than wages, so we are seeing the average American’s ability to buy a home evaporate before our eyes.

When you have people falling further behind, they start to lose hope. When people lose hope, they become bigger risk takers. Why not? What do they have to lose? Nothing really, right?

This is why we are witnessing an explosion in sports gambling, meme coin trading, and other risky investing behaviors. So what is the anecdote?

There is something called the Success Sequence that seems to have stood the test of time. The sequence is very simple: graduate from high school, get a full-time job, get married before you have kids. If someone can do that, they significantly increase their odds of avoiding economic destruction or poverty.

This may seem simple for many of you, but we forget how many Americans end up following a different path. I share this reminder because we are living through a dollar debasement crisis, while watching commodities surge higher in a spectacular bull market.

Creative Planning’s Charlie Bilello shows:

• Sulfur: +67%

• Jet Fuel: +66%

• Urea: +51%

• Diesel: +50%

• Heating Oil: +40%

• WTI Crude Oil: +37%

• European Natural Gas: +34%

• Gasoline: +32%

• Fertilizer: +31%

• Brent Crude Oil: +31%

• Coal: +14%

• Palm Oil: +10%

• Iron Ore: +7%

• Rice: +4%

• S&P 500: +1%

• $VIX: -8%

Commodity investors are enjoying the financial returns attached to this bull market. The average American is bracing for the negative impact from the same price appreciation. The only thing that can really save the economy is an economic explosion driven by technological innovation and led by the private sector.

We are seeing the early signs of this from the AI and robotics industry. We are going to need other industries like space, defense, biotech, and others to deliver deflationary pressures on the economy as well.

The US government is never going to stop printing money. We spent over $100 billion on interest payments for the national debt last month. That is billion with a “B” just last month. So our best hope is to grow our way out of this problem.

Accelerate. Accelerate. Accelerate. It can be done. We just have to let our entrepreneurs and technologists do their thing.

Have a great day. I will talk to you next time.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

🚨 ProCap Insights: Agentic Research for Investors Who Want To Make Money

Last week, ProCap Financial launched ProCap Insights, the first agentic research offering in finance.

Leveraging the latest AI, ProCap Insights offers institutional-grade research to help independent investors make more informed investment decisions. Reports cover single-name stocks, thematic trends, and macro analysis across sectors and asset classes.

Subscribe for 60% off today

Bitcoin Just Broke $75,0000… What Now?

I sat down with John Pompliano to discuss what’s really happenning with bitcoin and the macro environment, covering inflation, AI-driven deflation, and Wall Street’s growing push into bitcoin through ETFs.

We also discuss why bitcoin has held up during global conflict and why its scarcity could make it a long-term winner.

Podcast Sponsors

1. Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.

2. Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)

3. Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com

4. Consensus Miami - May 5-7 • Join 20,000 decision-makers for the convergence of crypto, capital & culture. Save 25% with POMPLIANO.

5. Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com

6. BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $2,000 in rewards.

7. Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold.

8. Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

I’m speaking on the Mainstage at Consensus Miami this May 5-7 — the event the entire industry shows up for, from Wall Street, the White House, and all of Web3. 20,000+ decision-makers. 72% director-level or above. Three days where deals get signed, funds get raised, and the next cycle gets shaped.

This year’s agenda tackles the three forces driving trillions on-chain and reshaping global finance: crypto at scale, institutional integration, and agentic commerce. You can’t afford to miss it.

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To investors,

The United States and Iran were set to solidify the ceasefire with a peace agreement negotiated in Pakistan over the last few days. Vice President JD Vance stepped up to the podium after 21 hours of negotiations and informed the world there would be no peace deal.

Iran reportedly continues to refuse the US proposal, so the war is back on again. This time there is a big wrinkle though.

Rather than allow Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, the United States has decided to implement a blockade of their own. At first glance, this seems like a childish decision to merely claim victory in a skirmish, but upon further review there is strategic importance to the decision.

For example, Iran has not completely closed the Strait over the last few weeks. Instead, they have prevented most ships from passing through the waterway and they have merely been taxing other ships. This selective enforcement has been a big financial boost for the Middle Eastern country, especially because Iran has also been exporting their own oil through the Strait at the same time.

Rather than allow Iran to call the shots in the Strait, and continue to profit from their decisions, the United States blockade will rapidly cut off all economic benefit to Iran.

FDD Senior Fellow Miad Maleki writes “The U.S. naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz would cost Iran approximately $276 million per day in lost exports and disrupt $159 million per day in imports, a combined economic damage of ~$435 million per day, or $13 billion per month.”

This level of economic loss should apply maximum pressure to the country, along with exasperate the pain for Iran’s allies such as China. The decision for Iran to weaponize the Strait of Hormuz never really made sense, because they couldn’t deliver on their threats in the way people thought.

Hudson Institute’s Zineb Riboua writes:

“Iran’s move to weaponize the Strait of Hormuz ranks among its most strategically reckless decisions.

They cannot sustain control over it. Their military position does not allow for prolonged enforcement against determined opposition. More importantly, it was never a credible bargaining chip. Once escalated, it has to be relinquished without meaningful concessions. The only asset that has ever carried real negotiating weight is the nuclear program.

The logic behind the move is also flawed. The expectation was to trigger a global economic shock large enough to force a halt in U.S. operations. That outcome has not materialized. Instead, it has accelerated the opposite dynamic. Regional and global actors are now investing in routes and infrastructure designed to bypass the Strait altogether.

In trying to turn Hormuz into leverage, Iran is diminishing its long-term strategic value. Very stupid of IRGC.”

You can read about the geopolitical implications to this decision elsewhere, so I want to focus our time on how this development will impact the US economy and American citizens at home.

First, the United States has become the most popular girl at the bar when it comes to selling oil. There are hundreds of tankers from around the world that are rushing to the Gulf of America to purchase oil from us. Whether this was an intended outcome or not, America’s energy independence is quickly becoming a strategic asset that will drive significant revenue growth for our oil and gas industry, along with our country.

Second, there could be short-term military and operational costs for mine clearance, escorting ships, and potential combat with Iranian forces. These additional costs will only put more pressure on the national debt, which will lead to further debasement of the US dollar over the long run.

Third, oil prices will likely continue to be very volatile. The entire world is trying to figure out what the price for a barrel of oil should be, but the input costs, the available global supply, and the future prospects of production continue to change on a daily basis. There is consensus belief that a fully opened Strait will lead to lower oil prices, so a fully closed Strait will only continue to put upwards pressure on prices.

Fourth, the US stock market will be volatile. There is lots of pressure on software stocks and the tech industry more broadly, while energy and oil company stocks have been outperforming in recent weeks. These trends could reverse if the war ends, but it seems like we are in a state of volatility for the foreseeable future.

Lastly, there will be a mixed message in the domestic economy. As I wrote about last week, the US economy will continue profiting from higher oil prices, while American citizens feel the pain at the pump. This will feed the higher inflation narrative, especially as people brace for higher fertilizer prices, higher food prices, and higher shipping costs globally.

There is no way to spin the negative impact on US households in the short-term. The big question becomes how transient this impact will be? Once the war is over, do prices come back down quickly? Do Americans get amnesia and forget about this episode if the stock market rips higher over the summer? How do the midterm elections play into the geopolitical options that President Trump and his administration are weighing?

I don’t have answers to many of these questions. But it is clear that the US blockade is going to change the calculus for Iran in this conflict. They just went from being in charge to being cut off from the world. Regardless of what they say publicly, no one loses $13 billion per month and shrugs it off.

Lets just hope that we see a true ceasefire as a result of this latest escalation. War is an ugly thing and no one wants to see innocent people dying.

Hope you all have a great start to your week. I will talk to everyone tomorrow.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

🚨 ProCap Insights: Agentic Research for Investors Who Want To Make Money

Last week, ProCap Financial launched ProCap Insights, the first agentic research offering in finance.

Leveraging the latest AI, ProCap Insights offers institutional-grade research to help independent investors make more informed investment decisions. Reports cover single-name stocks, thematic trends, and macro analysis across sectors and asset classes.

Subscribe for 60% off today

Bitcoin & AI Will DOMINATE The Next Rotation

Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack.

In this conversation, we break down what’s really going on in the market right now—from AI-driven disruption and rising inflation to why money is rotating into commodities and semiconductors. We also get into why bitcoin could be setting up for a bigger move as the macro environment continues to shift.

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🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

I normally don’t write a letter to you on Sunday morning, but I wanted to highlight a very interesting research report that came from ProCap Insights over the past week. The report looks at the impact of AI on the job market, including an analysis of whether artificial intelligence is stealing human jobs.

One of the most eye-opening conclusions was artificial intelligence has a disproportionate negative impact on young people compared to their older peers. The report explains:

In August 2025, researchers at the Stanford Digital Economy Lab published what may be the most important labor market study of the AI era. Erik Brynjolfsson, Chinchih Chen, and others analyzed employment trends across occupations ranked by AI exposure. Their findings shatter both narratives simultaneously.

Workers aged 22 to 25 in the most AI-exposed occupations experienced a 16% relative decline in employment since late 2022, after controlling for firm-level shocks. Young software developers specifically saw employment fall 20% below its late fall 2022 peak by mid-2025. Early-career customer service workers declined 11% from their November 2022 peak.

But workers aged 30 and over in those exact same high-AI-exposure occupations saw employment grow between 6% and 12% over the same period. The labor market did not shrink in these sectors. It bifurcated.

The mechanism is consistent with how AI tools interact with the labor force. AI handles a growing share of rules-based, structured tasks traditionally assigned to junior workers, from drafting emails and writing boilerplate code to summarizing documents and handling tier-one customer queries. Senior workers, whose value comes from tacit knowledge, judgment, and soft skills, are not displaced by these same tools.

They are augmented by it. One experienced developer with Copilot produces what previously required a team of three juniors.

JPMorgan’s Aliaga found the same dynamic. Over one-third of U.S. workers now use generative AI for job tasks, but the St. Louis Fed estimates generative AI accounts for just 5.7% of total work hours as of mid-2025. That 5.7% falls disproportionately on the repetitive, entry-level work that defined the first rung of most professional careers.

Goldman Sachs estimates that two-thirds of U.S. occupations have AI exposure, but only 6% to 7% of workers face genuine displacement risk. The rest face augmentation, and augmentation benefits the experienced.

This data makes sense when you realize that artificial intelligence is going to eat into the work force from the bottom up. As the technology improves, it will take over more complex and senior tasks, but until we reach that level of innovation it will be the young people who are affected the most.

But the story is not only age-specific.

The ProCap Insights report, which is generated through an agentic AI system, identifies major pain underway in the publishing and media industries. The report explains:

BLS establishment survey data reveals which sectors are already living in the post-AI labor market. Motion picture and sound recording employment has fallen 18.9% since January 2023, from 415,900 to 337,400 workers. Publishing industries employment declined 5.8% over the same period, from 958,500 to 902,800. These are content-creation sectors where AI tools directly substitute for junior and mid-level creative labor.

Meanwhile, professional, scientific, and technical services, the largest white-collar sector, grew just 0.9% over three years. That 0.9% translates to roughly 97,000 jobs added in a sector of 10.8 million, a pace that barely keeps up with population growth.

The sector is not contracting. It is calcifying.

The Harvard Business School research published in March 2026 reinforces this. Analyzing nearly all U.S. job postings from 2019 through March 2025, researchers found that automation-prone roles saw a 13% decrease in postings since ChatGPT’s launch, while analytical, technical, and creative roles saw a 20% increase. Job postings for automation-prone occupations also required 7% fewer skills.

Employers are not just posting fewer jobs. They are posting simpler ones, consistent with AI tools absorbing the complexity that once required a dedicated human.

Generative AI is very good at producing content, so it makes sense that content-focused industries are coming under pressure. Remember, this is the worse the technology will ever be, so we should expect an acceleration from here.

I continue to tell people that three areas of media will be safe from AI disruption: scoops, long-form profiles, and live coverage. But I believe people can insulate themselves from being negatively affected by AI if they can become AI proficient. There is not a company in the world that is going to fire employees who are the best at using AI internally.

Instead, companies are going to promote these people, give them more responsibilities, and likely pay them more money over time. Don’t sit around and be disrupted. Learn to use the tools and technology. This is true whether you are a professional investor or a casual individual investor.

Superhuman intelligence is now abundantly available. The only limiting factor is your curiosity and persistence.

Before I let you go, I highly suggest subscribing to ProCap Insights. We built an AI system to dig through mountains of data to identify unique or undiscovered insights, then the AI analyzes the data, fact checks the information, and writes the full report without human intervention.

The company published a ton of research this week, including 3 stocks that could benefit if oil falls below $80, 2 stocks Meta inadvertently boosted with its new AI model, 2 stocks that could rally big with stagflation signals flashing, and an airline stock that will fly if the Iran conflict doesn’t end soon.

If you subscribed before midnight tonight, you will get 60% off an annual subscription.

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I hope you found this letter valuable. Have a great end to your weekend and I will talk to everyone tomorrow.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

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To investors,

The US and Iran agreed to a ceasefire earlier this week contingent on a few conditions, including the Strait of Hormuz being reopened. Iran seems to be in agreement to open the Strait, but the Financial Times is reporting that the Middle Eastern country wants to be paid a tax of $1 per barrel of oil that goes through the waterway.

That demand does not seem out of the ordinary. But the FT also reported that Iran is demanding payment in bitcoin for this tax. That detail is potentially explosive if true.
This would be the first time that warring countries would be publicly agreeing to use bitcoin as a key component of a peace deal. The development is not shocking to the bitcoin community though. We have been saying for years that bitcoin is a digital, decentralized, non-sovereign, neutral asset that can be used by anyone in the world.

If two countries don’t trust each other, they can use bitcoin to settle transactions of economic value. The US has shown that dollars can’t be used for this purpose after the leading western nation aggressively sanctioned Russia and its oligarchs after the invasion of Ukraine. The US and multi-national corporations are not going to pay in yuan, yen, euro, or other fiat currencies.

Gold is too difficult to use because of the lack of portability and speed in a transaction. One other option would have been stablecoins, but those can be frozen, blocked, and confiscated as well. That risk is likely too high for Iran, which finds itself fighting against the greatest military the world has ever assembled.

This is not the first time that bitcoin has been used on the geopolitical stage. China’s hot and cold relationship with mining over the years has been well documented, along with various one-off bi-lateral trade agreements that were settled in bitcoin.

The United States intelligence agencies have been using bitcoin for awhile as well. I sat down with Michael Ellis, the deputy director of the CIA, last year and he explained to me how the agency looks at the digital currency:

Now the counter-argument to the importance of Iran’s announcement would be that the gulf country is not actually accepting bitcoin. BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes eloquently wrote “I’ll believe Iran is charging a toll in bitcoin when I see a [transaction] linked to a vessel’s toll payment. Otherwise it’s just the IRGC trolling the western filthy fiat financial system.”

But regardless of whether the Iran government is actually accepting bitcoin or not, the narrative has gone viral globally and that may be the most important aspect of the story. Bitcoin is an idea’s time that has come.

How do we know?

Because on the same day that news broke of bitcoin’s role in a peace deal to end a war, Morgan Stanley launched their bitcoin ETF. Morgan Stanley is one of the largest financial institutions in the world and happens to be one of the longest standing investment banks on Wall Street.

It may appear Morgan Stanley is late to the game, but the organization is coming in hot and heavy. They are launching with a expense fee of 0.14%, which is the lowest in the market. That type of pricing pressure should force the hand of other players in the market, which could lead to more inflows over time.

I find it interesting that we are still getting “barbell news” in the bitcoin industry. The traditional financial firms want bitcoin to be a grown up asset they can package and sell to their clients, while the most violent criminals and terrorists in the world are flocking to the asset as a last resort to solve their unique problems.

It may be uncomfortable for people to recognize but this is what true product-market fit looks like. Bitcoin is attractive to different people for different reasons. If you need to store economic value for a period of time, bitcoin is a great option. If you need to prevent others from taking that economic value, bitcoin may in the only option.

It is exciting to see how far we have come in the last 15 years or so. But something tells me this story is not over and the next 15 years will be even more impressive.

I hope you all have a great day. I will talk to everyone tomorrow.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

Will Bitcoin Skyrocket When Iran War Ends?

I sat down to explain why bitcoin is holding strong while stocks, bonds, and gold decline amid inflation and geopolitical uncertainty. I also breakdown ETF demand, long-term holder accumulation, and why bitcoin continues to benefit from global liquidity and money printing, while addressing common risks and criticisms.

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🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

The Age of Automation is upon us. I have been writing about it and tweeting about it for almost a decade. Take Bitcoin as an example. It is an automated central bank that continues to manage the most disciplined and transparent monetary policy in the world.

Even the skeptics have to admit that the idea has been adopted by hundreds of millions of people globally.

But now automation is going to come for the rest of finance. The recent tech innovations related to artificial intelligence will allow new financial firms to be built with armies of AI agents that replace hundreds of human employees.

I know this because I am actively building ProCap Financial, the first publicly traded agentic finance firm.

Our first product, called Silvia, has automated away many of the consumer finance functions at large institutions. Rather than hire lots of people, we are able to help thousands of multi-millionaires gain better insights into their portfolios leveraging the latest AI models and a suite of proprietary agents.

Silvia has more than $30 billion of assets on the platform in under a year. The average user has a net worth of at least $2.5 million and they ask Silvia about 18 questions per week. Like I said, the age of automation is upon us.

But we are not stopping at consumer finance. Our goal is to build a financial firm that automates the products and services from traditional players, but does it with AI agents in pursuit of helping independent investors make money.

With this perspective as context, I am happy to share that ProCap Financial is releasing it’s second product today: ProCap Insights.

ProCap Insights is the research division of the company, but it also happens to be the first agentic research shop on Wall Street. We only have one human overseeing the AI system being used to conduct research, write the analysis, and publish the reports.

I fundamentally believe the machines are smarter than the humans. AI is very good at finding hidden insights across financial markets. The same technology allows us to create research faster and cheaper than human teams too. This is what real automation looks like.

The big focus of ProCap Insights is to help you make money. Some of the initial research we are launching with includes:

• 3 Stocks That Win From Both Tariff Refunds and the Iran Oil Shock

• Stocks to Buy for Kevin Warsh’s Fed Regime

• Insiders Are Dumping Tech Stocks and Buying Energy

• 5 Stocks That Win From $166 Billion in Tariff Refunds

You can read about the launch of ProCap Insights in the Wall Street Journal this morning: Click here. Or you can watch part of my segment from this morning on CNBC’s Squawk Box:

If you are looking for investment ideas and believe that AI is smarter than humans, you should consider subscribing to ProCap Insights. Anyone who subscribes in the next 48 hours will get grandfathered in at a 60% discount to the normal price.

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We are laser-focused on helping independent investors make money. And the AI agents are helping us answer your questions via Silvia, or surface interesting investment ideas via Insights.

We will keep building even more.

Have a great day. I will talk to everyone tomorrow.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

What’s Actually Happening To Bitcoin & The Economy Right Now

Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack.

In this conversation, we discuss market confusion amid rising oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and mixed economic signals, and why he believes we are entering a new regime defined by scarcity and structural shifts. We also explore the deflationary impact of AI, risks building in private credit, and how bitcoin could benefit as the Fed faces a difficult path between inflation and slowing growth.

Podcast Sponsors

1. Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.

2. Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)

3. Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com

4. BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $2,000 in rewards.

5. Summ – (formerly Crypto Tax Calculator) generates accurate IRS-ready tax reports that help maximize deductions and pay the least tax possible. With support for 3,500+ exchanges, wallets, and protocols, Summ makes crypto taxes simple. Visit Summ.com and get 20% off with code POMP20.

6. Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold.

7. Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

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To investors,

Jamie Dimon, CEO of the world’s largest bank, dropped his annual letter this morning and it is filled with noteworthy comments. Most interesting to me, Dimon decided to use the letter as a vessel for reinforcing the American values, while calling for a country-wide recommitment to the ideals that built the greatest nation on earth.

He writes now is “the perfect time to rededicate ourselves to the values that made this great nation of ours — freedom, liberty and opportunity.

The challenges we all face are significant. The list is long but at the top are the terrible ongoing war and violence in Ukraine, the current war in Iran and the broader hostilities in the Middle East, terrorist activity and growing geopolitical tensions, importantly with China. Even in troubled times, we have confidence that America will do what it has always done — look to the values that have defined our singular nation and sustained our leadership of the free world.”

This optimistic message from one of the country’s most important business leaders comes in stark contrast to the mainstream media headlines in recent weeks. Those headlines make it sound like the world is ending and a catastrophic recession is right around the corner. Oil is spiking. Bombs are dropping. The Strait is closed. Gas prices are surging. And sky high inflation will be here any day now.

But a very different story emerges if you zoom out and actually look at the data. Simply, the conflict in Iran is not breaking the US economy. Instead, it is reinforcing just how dominant America has become.

Let’s start with the fact that the United States is no longer an energy-dependent country. According to the EIA, America has been an energy net exporter since 2019. That is a complete reversal from decades of vulnerability. There is a wide margin between what we export compared to what we import, which is mainly driven by the pesky detail that US crude production is running at roughly 13.6 million barrels per day.

This makes America the largest energy producer in the world.

Now does the US still import some crude oil? Yes, but that is mostly due to edge cases related to refining efficiency and logistics. What really matters is the net position and America exports far more petroleum products than it brings in. This is important to understand because when global energy prices rise, the US counterintuitively profits at the national level from the upside of higher energy prices.

This is a dramatic change from how these situations used to play out. If we go back to the 1973 oil embargo, the US was heavily dependent on foreign oil. Supply shocks led to long gas lines, soaring inflation, and a real hit to economic growth. Energy was a weakness and market commentators rightfully were worried. In the modern economy, energy is much closer to a strategic asset though.

Greg Ip explains in the Wall Street Journal how this new position of leadership atop the world of energy has empowered the current administration to make geopolitical moves that were previously thought unwise or impossible:

“Trump’s revamping of the U.S. role in world security and trade now extends to oil. No longer does the U.S. see itself as the guarantor of international stability and norms, but rather as a self-interested actor using control of oil to enhance its own power.

The U.S. became an energy superpower through serendipity and policy. The shale revolution vastly increased domestic oil and gas production, while federal and state policy and the construction of liquefied natural gas (LNG) facilities made that output available to the world.

In the process, oil and gas became key contributors to U.S. economic growth and prestige. The U.S. earns more from exports of LNG than of corn and soybeans, and twice as much as it does on movie and TV content, S&P Global reports.

Fossil fuels are foundational to Trump’s vision not just of domestic prosperity but international clout. He created a National Energy Dominance Council shortly after taking office, and his National Security Strategy, issued last November, calls “American energy dominance” a “top strategic priority.””

But this is where investors really need to dig into the data. Even with tensions around the Strait of Hormuz and oil pushing above $100, the impact on the US economy looks surprisingly contained. Estimates from firms like Goldman Sachs suggest that every $10 increase in oil prices reduces US GDP growth by about 0.1 to 0.3 percentage points while adding a modest bump to inflation. That is not nothing, but it is manageable. Especially when you compare it to Europe or parts of Asia, where economies are still heavily dependent on imported energy and feel these shocks much more directly.

Now let’s zoom out to the broader economy and the resilience becomes even clearer. Forecasts still call for around 2.2 percent real GDP growth in 2026. That is slightly lower than earlier expectations, but it is nowhere near recession territory. Unemployment remains in the low 4% range. Consumer spending continues to be strong and nothing in the labor market suggests catastrophe is on the horizon.

Even the Federal Reserve is remaining calm and not signaling panic. The central bank’s expectation is that the conflict may nudge inflation higher, but it is unlikely to materially derail growth unless oil prices spike to extreme levels. Most Wall Street analysts view that as a low probability scenario.

This brings us to a very weird second-order effect from the current geopolitical uncertainty. While everyone is focused on the short-term impact to oil, gas, and potentially inflation, the United States is gaining immense leverage on the global stage.

I know it is not popular to talk about this, especially when we are still striking Iran, but it is essential to recognize what is happening so you can allocate capital appropriately for the coming years ahead.

America is now one of the world’s largest exporters of LNG and refined petroleum products. That gives us real economic and geopolitical power. Many of our European allies now rely heavily on American LNG and they are increasingly tied to US supply for their own stability. Higher global prices reinforce that relationship and accelerate the shift away from less reliable or hostile energy sources.

At the same time, the domestic US economy benefits from relatively abundant and cheaper energy. That matters more than people think and it is not something that is being widely covered. Manufacturing, data centers, and AI infrastructure all depend on consistent, affordable power. While other regions deal with higher input costs, the US remains better positioned to scale due to our lower sensitivity to the higher energy prices.

Before I get a barrage of responses saying to “look at gas prices!” or calling me an idiot, none of this analysis means there are no downsides. Of course there are downsides. Consumers feel higher gas prices at the pump in the short term. Sentiment goes down and discretionary spending gets tighter. These microeconomic factors are not immune to realities in commodities, but at the macro level the picture is much stronger than headlines suggest.

This is a classic case of macro vs micro economics. And it begs the question of what the administration is optimizing for? I don’t have that answer, but they have continued to say it is Main Street’s turn to enjoy economic abundance, because they believe Wall Street has captured enough. The problem with that statement is that you have to balance the nation’s economic health with the every day experience of American citizens who struggle to pay an extra dollar per gallon of gas each week.

This is where so much of the debate gets lost in my opinion. It is very easy to write articles about the price of gas or the promised impact on higher inflation reports that are yet to surface, but those details are unlikely to drown out the macro benefits accruing to the United States.

The Iran conflict is not exposing cracks in the system. It will not crash the US economy, nor will it deliver sky-high inflation similar to what we saw during COVID. Instead, the current situation is revealing just how much more resilient and dominant the American economy has become.

And over a long period of time, that is a great development for Americans even if we don’t feel it on a day-to-day basis.

Have a great start to your week. I will talk to everyone tomorrow.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

What’s Actually Happening To Bitcoin & The Economy Right Now

Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack.

In this conversation, we discuss market confusion amid rising oil prices, geopolitical tensions, and mixed economic signals, and why he believes we are entering a new regime defined by scarcity and structural shifts. We also explore the deflationary impact of AI, risks building in private credit, and how bitcoin could benefit as the Fed faces a difficult path between inflation and slowing growth.

Podcast Sponsors

1. Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.

2. Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)

3. Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com

4. BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $2,000 in rewards.

5. Summ – (formerly Crypto Tax Calculator) generates accurate IRS-ready tax reports that help maximize deductions and pay the least tax possible. With support for 3,500+ exchanges, wallets, and protocols, Summ makes crypto taxes simple. Visit Summ.com and get 20% off with code POMP20.

6. Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold.

7. Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

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To investors,

Stock investors are throwing a party as we end the week. Markets have come back from the dead and snapped a five-week losing streak. The S&P 500 climbed 3.4%, the Nasdaq surged 4.4%, and the Dow gained 3.0%. People are not going to complain about green candles after weeks of red.

On the surface, it looks like risk appetite is back and Q2 is off to a strong start. But underneath the rally, the latest labor market data tells a more cautious story. That gap between what markets are doing and what the data is saying is where investors need to focus in my opinion.

The March jobs report showed that nonfarm payrolls increased by 178,000. This rebound from February’s decline of 133,000 has people excited for obvious reasons and it doesn’t hurt that the unemployment rate edged down slightly to 4.3% either. At first glance, this looks fine. But zoom out and the trend is clear. Hiring is slowing. The gains are concentrated in a handful of sectors like healthcare, construction, and logistics, while broader momentum remains weak.

For example, the ADP report earlier in the week showed just 62,000 private-sector jobs added, reinforcing the idea that businesses are becoming more cautious.

What we are seeing now is a classic late-cycle labor market. Companies are not aggressively hiring, but they are not rushing to fire workers either. Job openings are trending lower and workers are quitting less often. The labor market is essentially in a standoff where employees stay put and companies resist hiring.

This “low hire, low fire” environment signals a slowdown in demand, but thankfull yit is not a collapse. Investors have to pay attention to the subtle shift because the labor market sits at the center of the economy. It drives consumer spending, corporate earnings, and ultimately the Fed’s monetary policy.

At the same time, this slowdown is happening at the same time as rising geopolitical risk. The bombing of Iran has pushed energy prices higher, which increases the odds of short-term inflation. So now the Fed has a problem on their hands.

Structural deflation is swallowing the economy. Short term inflationary pressures are showing up. The stock market is volatile. And the central bank has to figure out what to do. They can’t cut rates if inflation is going to spike, but they can’t let the labor market fall off a cliff either. This tension between slower growth and sticky inflation is one of the most important dynamics I am watching right now.

So this brings us back to stocks and why they are rallying in the face of this mixed data? The answer is simple….markets are forward-looking.

Investors are betting that the current softness will eventually lead to policy support. If the labor market weakens further, the Fed will be forced to ease. If geopolitical tensions stabilize, energy prices could come down and diminish inflationary pressures. On top of that, there is still a belief that corporate earnings, particularly in technology, can remain resilient.

Basically investors are calling the bluff of the doomsday predictors. They are voting with their dollars and clearly saying they believe things are going to turn around through the rest of the year.

This is what a “climb the wall of worry” market looks like. Stocks move higher even as the data becomes more fragile. You have to remember, we are not in a recession. But we are also not in a clean growth environment. We are in the messy middle, which is where narratives shift quickly and investors who can ignore the noise tend to do well over the long run.

This is where discipline becomes critical. Companies with strong balance sheets, durable demand, and real pricing power tend to outperform in this type of environment. These businesses can absorb higher costs and navigate slower growth better than their peers. At the same time, interest rates will remain a key variable.

If labor market weakness continues, rate cuts come back into focus, which tends to benefit long-duration assets like growth stocks. But if energy-driven inflation persists, the Fed may stay tighter for longer, which changes the situation materially.

I don’t want to ignore the energy situation, but it is important to put in context too. Higher oil prices are not just a macro headline. They directly impact inflation expectations, consumer behavior, and corporate margins. In many ways, energy exposure becomes both a risk and a hedge depending on how geopolitical events unfold. This adds another layer of complexity to portfolio construction.

So the one thing I feel very confident in is that volatility will remain elevated. This is not a smooth, trending market. Sharp pullbacks driven by fear can offer attractive entry points, while strong rallies can be used to take profits and manage risk. The key is to avoid reacting emotionally and instead focus on the underlying fundamentals of stocks, gold, bitcoin, and other assets.

The bottom line is that the labor market is screaming a specific message to whoever will listen. It is not strong, but it is not breaking either. The market, for now, is choosing to be optimistic, which I think is a no brainer decision.

But that optimism depends on hiring stabilizing, inflation staying under control, and geopolitical tensions easing in the coming weeks. If any of those variables shift in the wrong direction, then the current rally could quickly lose momentum.

You have to be a critical thinker going forward. The easy gains from broad exposure are behind us. The edge now comes from understanding second-order effects. Slower hiring today can mean easier policy tomorrow. Higher energy prices can delay that easing. No one has a crystal ball. But if you think hard enough, you can start to connect the dots.

Lots of people are nervous or confused right now. I am excited and see tons of opportunity all over the market. And my bet is that pessimists sound smart, but they rarely make money.

Let’s see what happens. Have a great end to your week. I will talk to everyone on Monday.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

When Will Wall Street Start Buying Bitcoin Again?

Matthew Sigel is the Head of Digital Asset Research at VanEck and portfolio manager of the NODE ETF.

In this conversation, we discuss why he’s turning more bullish on bitcoin, how AI and energy are driving new investment opportunities, and why bitcoin miners are emerging as key players in the AI boom. We also explore risks around AI Capex, geopolitics, and how he’s positioning across crypto and equities.

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To investors,

Most capital allocators were freaking out one year ago. The President of the United States levied tariffs on the world economy in early April 2025, which sent markets into a chaotic and turbulent period. Pessimists promised you sky-high inflation, empty shelves, and the next Great Depression.

None of that happened though.

Instead, the stock market went up 16%, home prices went down, and hundreds of billions of dollars poured into America via foreign investment. But most importantly, we never got the sky-high inflation, which objectively disproves the academic theory that tariffs are inflationary.

If you recall, I was one of the lone voices banging the drum that tariffs would be deflationary. Here is the piece that I wrote last April titled “Welcome to the Tariff Era — The Truth about US Tariffs.” If you haven’t read it, I highly suggest you do.

I argued in the piece that past tariffs had led to lower prices of goods domestically, rather than higher prices. I analyzed the 2018 tariffs and their impact on steel, washer machines, and solar panels. For all three products, prices were lower within 18 months than they had been pre-tariffs. I predicted we would see many of the same things start happening across the US economy.

Fast forward to today and we are now starting to see some of the results one year later. Natasha Khan just wrote a piece for the Wall Street Journal explaining how Sharpie, the maker of your favorite markers, has figured out how to manufacture their products at a lower cost by re-shoring their manufacturing. The best part is they have been able to do this without having to fire employees or raise consumer prices.

Narrative violation.

But we are not just seeing lower prices in tariffed goods. Truflation reported their latest data for the start of April and it serves as a check against the current mainstream consensus. The company writes:

“The US inflation index went down quite significantly today from 1.77% to 1.26%.

Truflation CPI often shows larger monthly shifts on the 1st of each month because multiple data providers update their data. This time, the shift is downwards and unusually strong, highlighting multiple sticky deflationary trends across major categories, while gasoline prices continue to go up and have driven inflation higher over the past month.

Main drivers of this renewed deflationary wave:

1. Transport (-0.17%) - Used and New car price inflation is decreasing despite being offset by the Gasoline prices going up.

2. Food (-0.10%) - Food at home and Food away from home inflation is dropping.

3. Utilities (-0.10%) - Natural Gas prices are declining.

4. Housing (-0.09%) - Prices are dropping across all 3 sub-categories: Rented, Owned, and Other Lodgings.”

Now I know many people are skeptical of Truflation, but I continue to believe it is the single most valuable and accurate measurement of real-time inflation in the United States. They use over 14 million data points coming from over 40 independent data providers. Is it perfect? Probably not. But it is definitely more accurate than the CPI calculation from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Plus, Truflation has a 98% correlation to CPI, with CPI having a one-month lag. The reason this is important right now is because Truflation is telling us that the short-term impact from rising oil and gas prices is not going to be as pronounced on inflation as everyone is predicting.

Let me explain what I mean. Gas prices are now over $4 per gallon in the US. The media will rightfully call out the potential economic pain from this development, but there is some important nuance that you won’t read in the headlines.

You are going to read that every visit to the pump costs more, small businesses get squeezed, shipping prices rise, and that flows into everything from groceries to Amazon orders. This is all true and unfortunately these negative impacts hit lower-income households the hardest.

But $4 gas is not going to derail the US economy.

Most people are stuck in the 2008 mindset, but thankfully that is not the world we live in anymore. Cars are more fuel-efficient, EV adoption is growing, wages are higher in nominal terms, and the economy is less energy-intensive than it used to be.

On top of this, America is producing more oil than ever, so high oil prices incentivizes more investment and it creates more jobs domestically. These may not be exciting consolation prizes, but they are factual ramifications from high prices.

So what is likely to actually happen from these higher prices at the pump?

We probably don’t experience a big crash directly from high gas prices. Instead, we see a slow bleed across markets. Consumers pull back a little, sentiment weakens, and politicians start sweating. But $4 gas alone isn’t enough to break the economy.

The real danger is stacking negative economic trends. If high gas combines with sticky inflation, high rates, or a weakening job market then that’s when things could quickly unravel. If we don’t get the combination of factors, most of the headlines will be overdone.

So for right now, the biggest impact of high gas prices is not economic, but rather psychological. This brings us back to the recent Truflation data and the example of Sharpie. The structural setup for the US economy right now has deflation as a much bigger risk than inflation. The headlines are screaming about high oil prices, and the ensuing high gas prices, but the situation has not changed in the medium-to-long term.

Don’t get distracted. Tariffs, deportations, AI, and robotics are going to last longer than high oil prices. And those trends will matter much more for your portfolio over the next few years.

Have a great day. I will talk to everyone tomorrow.

🚨Learn How To Use Bitcoin in Tax-Advantaged Accounts | LIVE TODAY @ 2pm ET !

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When Will Wall Street Start Buying Bitcoin Again?

Matthew Sigel is the Head of Digital Asset Research at VanEck and portfolio manager of the NODE ETF.

In this conversation, we discuss why he’s turning more bullish on bitcoin, how AI and energy are driving new investment opportunities, and why bitcoin miners are emerging as key players in the AI boom. We also explore risks around AI Capex, geopolitics, and how he’s positioning across crypto and equities.

Podcast Sponsors

1. Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.

2. Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)

3. Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com

4. BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $2,000 in rewards.

5. Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com

6. Summ – (formerly Crypto Tax Calculator) generates accurate IRS-ready tax reports that help maximize deductions and pay the least tax possible. With support for 3,500+ exchanges, wallets, and protocols, Summ makes crypto taxes simple. Visit Summ.com and get 20% off with code POMP20.

7. Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold.

8. Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

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To investors,

The word “SaaSpocalypse” has gone viral on Wall Street. Since September of last year, the S&P North American Technology Software Index has shed 32% of its value. That is a BIG drop for just a few months.

Salesforce is down more than 26%. Adobe has lost 20%. Dozens of mid-cap SaaS names have been cut in half. If you have been watching enterprise software stocks lately, you have been watching a sector get completely repriced. And if you have been an investor holding these stocks, your portfolio has not been fun to look at.

But what if everyone panics and gets ready to dump their positions at the bottom of the drawdown? What if the worst is behind us?

I don’t have a crystal ball, nor am I trying to call the bottom here, but here is what a contrarian would argue right now: the market has overreacted, the dominant narrative is factually broken, and investors who buy right now may be staring at some of the best entry points in a decade.

Before we talk about what could happen in the future, we have to unpack how we got here.

The pain arrived in two distinct waves. The first was macroeconomic. When the Federal Reserve raised interest rates at the fastest pace in history during 2022, long-duration assets got crushed.

There are very few assets that carry more duration than a fast-growing software company with cash flows priced ten years into the future. For example, the Bessemer Cloud Index saw its median public SaaS revenue multiple crater from an all-time peak of 18.4x forward revenue in September 2021 to roughly 6x by early 2026. That alone was a brutal reset.

Just that metric saw a 65% decrease by itself.

The second wave of pain was structural though. Frankly, this one was far more alarming to investors. The best way to understand it is that the rise of AI agents introduced what analysts now call “seat compression”: the idea that a single AI agent can perform the work of multiple employees, so enterprises need fewer software licenses.

Atlassian saw its stock plunge 35% after reporting its first-ever decline in enterprise seat counts. Whoops! Workday announced layoffs of 8.5% of its workforce and directly cited AI as one of the contributing factors. If those examples weren’t bad enough, the January 2026 CIO survey found IT budget growth was expected to be only 3.4%.

Most analysts argue that a big portion of budget growth was withheld because dollars are being rerouted toward more than $660 billion in planned hyperscaler AI infrastructure spending. That is obviously a big number. And when the market sees a big number attached to a scary prediction, they panic quickly.

That is exactly what happened earlier this year. A good example is when price-to-sales multiples compressed from 9x down to roughly 6x in a matter of weeks. For context, these are levels we have not seen since the mid-2010s.

But here is the thing, the sell-off in software stocks has not been uniform.

There is a bifurcation between AI infrastructure software and traditional application software. Palantir surged 135% in 2025 because they saw 121% year-over-year growth in their US commercial revenue. Palantir also gave fiscal 2026 revenue guidance of $7.2 billion, which was a number substantially higher than analyst expectations. Good companies, with real growth, can buck nearly any trend.

Other examples include Microsoft Azure crossing $50 billion in quarterly revenue and still growing 39% year-over-year. Oracle Cloud Infrastructure grew 84% in a single quarter and then told the market they had a $553 billion backlog. It is very hard to argue that a company is not going to be more valuable in the future when it claims to have half a trillion dollars of backlog.

Now let’s compare this to what happened on the other side of the market. A painful example has been Salesforce. They have lost more than a quarter of their market cap. Adobe’s forward price-to-earnings multiple has compressed to roughly 10x, even though the company is still growing revenue at 12% annually. This low of a multiple usually implies a business is in terminal decline.

CrowdStrike may be an even more confusing example. They are widely thought of as a structural winner in cybersecurity, yet they trade 20% below their five-year average price-to-sales multiple despite a dominant market position that grows more critical with every AI deployment. My big takeaway from these examples is that the market is treating all non-infrastructure software as damaged goods. This is where a contrarian would argue the market is making a mistake.

So what is going on here?

The prevailing bear thesis assumes that AI will displace SaaS. The pessimists believe that companies, particularly large enterprises, will stop paying for software subscriptions as AI agents absorb the workload. Could that be true? Sure. Is it the obvious conclusion from the current facts? Absolutely not.

A contrarian would argue this logic has a fatal flaw because the incumbents are not standing still. They are building the AI layer themselves, including their advantageous use of two decades of proprietary enterprise data, customer relationships, and distribution that no startup can replicate overnight.

Basically, incumbents only get disrupted if they don’t disrupt themselves first.

Let’s go back to Salesforce. Their Agentforce AI agent platform hit $800 million in annual recurring revenue in fiscal 2026, which they report is up 169% year-over-year. That platform is now shifting to a consumption-based, outcome-driven pricing model. If it works and continues to scale, it will be hard for a startup to compete with Salesforce’s distribution advantages.

Another one to pay attention to is ServiceNow’s generative AI suite (Now Assist). They reported crossing $600 million in annual contract value and are on pace for $1 billion by year-end. It is hard to ignore $1 billion in contract value.

Then let’s not forget Microsoft, the big dog of software. They launched a new M365 enterprise tier priced at $99 per user per month, which is 65% above its prior top-tier plan, with the hopes of capturing AI value directly through their existing install base.

So the bears may be loud right now, but these examples are not threats to the SaaS business model. Instead, they are the SaaS business model evolving into something more powerful and benefitting directly from the AI tech trend.

Another important point here is that many of these companies are switching from an individual license revenue model to a consumption-based pricing model. The idea is to charge a customer by tasks completed or outcome delivered, rather than by user seat. This business model evolution combined with the fact that enterprise software spending is projected to grow 15% this year, makes it more difficult for the people predicting the demise of software stocks.

The companies best positioned to capture this increased spend are the ones with the enterprise relationships, compliance infrastructure, and workflow integration that incumbents already own. Bain & Company’s own research confirms that customers overwhelmingly prefer to buy AI-enabled solutions from their existing vendors. This is common sense. Companies will buy from people they know and brands they trust, as long as the technology and cost are competitive.

So what has to happen for the bears to be wrong and software stock investors to be happy again?

This is where things get a little complicated. There is no magic bullet. Instead, investors are going to need a few things to go right. First, AI monetization must cross a credibility threshold. Confidence in Salesforce returns if Agentforce revenue surges north of $1 billion ARR. ServiceNow needs Now Assist to clear $1 billion in ACV. Microsoft needs to demonstrate that Copilot is lifting average revenue per user in a sustained, measurable way. Those data points, which could arrive as early as the second half of this year, will shift the market narrative from “AI is disrupting SaaS” to “SaaS is monetizing AI.”

The second thing that needs to happen is various enterprise IT budget data sources must confirm net expansion in software spend despite seat compression. This would be the most concrete way to disprove the bear thesis.

Lastly, stability in the macro environment is going to matter. If interest rates go up, that is going to cause more pain. But if rates stay flat, or even continuing being cut, then I would expect some of the multiple-compression headwinds to dissipate. This would then allow a true re-rating upwards to begin.

So if the bears are wrong on these software stocks, how much money could an investor potentially make going forward?

The good news is that valuation multiples across popular, quality software names is the most compelling it has been in years. Microsoft trades at roughly 24x forward earnings with 14% annualized earnings growth expected. The median Wall Street price target is $600, which is about 50% higher than the current share price.

Cloudflare has a similar situation. They have a median analyst target of $245, which would be about 40% higher from current prices. Snowflake, who is still growing revenue 29% year-over-year, trades at 13x price-to-sales, yet the consensus target implies 43% upside. These are not small numbers and I am not even talking about the highest analyst targets.

But if you really want asymmetry, a contrarian would argue Adobe is perhaps the most asymmetric setup. They currently trade around 10x forward earnings with double-digit revenue and earnings growth. As mentioned, the market is pricing structural decline into a company that is still compounding. If Adobe reverted to a normalized 25x multiple, that would imply approximately 150% upside before accounting for any earnings growth.

There is example after example across the public markets of these situations. Analysts at multiple firms are projecting 40–50% upside merely from multiple expansion alone for quality software names that execute on AI monetization. That is before you layer in the earnings growth trajectory that would likely follow from a successful embracing of the new technology.

Remember, the SaaSpocalypse is so overdone that the narrative assumes the industry is being disrupted into irrelevance. The data is telling a very different story though. Maybe the SaaS companies aren’t being disrupted from the outside, but they are evolving internally into something more valuable, with higher revenue per customer, lower marginal delivery costs, and a total addressable market that is tripling over the next four years.

If that is the case, the entry price for these companies has been put on a flash sale thanks to investor fear in recent weeks. The big question is whether the fear will have been warranted in hindsight.

I hope all of you have a great start to your week. I will talk to everyone next time.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, Professional Capital Management

🚨Webinar: Learn How To Use Bitcoin in Tax-Advantaged Accounts

Join myself and Chris Kline, Co-Founder of BitcoinIRA, for a FREE live webinar on how the right tax structure can change your financial life.

We’ll cover Bitcoin’s role in a modern portfolio, tax-advantaged account strategies, and what investors should be thinking about right now.

Learn about:
✅ How taxes quietly destroy wealth
✅ The accounts high earners actually use
✅ Live Q&A with Pomp

Don’t miss the opportunity to get your questions answered directly by myself and Chris Kline!

Register Here

Why Bitcoin Could Hit All-Time Highs Again in 2026

Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack.

In this conversation, we discuss rising inflation, higher oil prices, and why he believes markets are entering a new regime driven by supply shocks and geopolitical risk. We also explore asset rotation into commodities, risks in private credit, and bitcoin’s growing role as liquidity and capital flows shift globally.

Podcast Sponsors

1. Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.

2. Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)

3. Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com

4. BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $2,000 in rewards.

5. Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com

6. Summ – (formerly Crypto Tax Calculator) generates accurate IRS-ready tax reports that help maximize deductions and pay the least tax possible. With support for 3,500+ exchanges, wallets, and protocols, Summ makes crypto taxes simple. Visit Summ.com and get 20% off with code POMP20.

7. Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold.

8. Abra - This podcast is sponsored by Abra. Abra is the secure way to access crypto and crypto based yield and loan products through a separately managed account. To create an account, click here for individuals and here for entities.

9. Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.