The 60/40 portfolio has been a staple of financial portfolios for decades. The inverse correlation between stocks and bonds were long thought to protect investors, regardless of the market environment. That promise has essentially evaporated into thin air and smart investors are rightfully abandoning the 60/40 portfolio in droves.

As correlations between stocks and bonds have risen to significantly higher levels, bonds are now amplifying moves in equities rather than mitigating them. This means the 60/40 portfolio has the opposite effect than what was intended.

On top of the lack of risk-mitigation, bond performance has been atrocious on its own. Take TLT (iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF) as an example. The fund is down almost 50% in the last 5 years. That is the nominal loss, which is only exasperated by the insane levels of inflation and loss of purchasing power in the last half-decade.

So what have investors been doing to combat the problem? Private credit.

Trillions of dollars have poured into various flavors of this opaque asset class in search of higher yields. Some capital has come from individuals looking for a bond solution, while other capital has flowed due to increased banking regulations after the Global Financial Crisis. Regardless of the reason, private credit went from a niche industry to the mainstream, but recent pressures in private credit now have people questioning the accuracy of portfolio values, resilience to downturns, and the quality of underlying companies.

I don’t have a strong opinion on the industry at large. My view is that some private credit portfolios are high quality and others are time bombs waiting to explode. If you are allocated to funds in the vertical, you should quickly figure out which bucket you are in.

Unfortunately, most individual investors are boxed out from participating in these funds. They don’t know where to get access, nor may they qualify for high minimums or other filters. So the question becomes what should they do if they are facing the same bond problem I discussed earlier?

This is where I think on-chain yield generation will become an interesting option for investors over the coming years. The argument crypto folks would make is that yield generated through transparent, auditable mechanisms like staking, DeFi-based lending, liquidity provisioning, and funding-rate arbitrage will be superior to government bonds or private credit’s current form.

It is hard to disagree with their perspective.

What investor doesn’t want their position marked in real-time, along with a transparent view on how and when the yield is being generated? I am not an expert in on-chain finance, but my understanding is that most of this promised yield is delta-neutral and designed to harvest funding rates, lending spreads, and trading fees rather than to bet on the direction of individual assets.

One group that I think intimately understands this shift in yield investing is Abra, which is run by Bill Barhydt. They have created USDAF, a dollar-yield strategy that seeks to generate yield through delta-neutral on-chain strategies.

You can learn more about USDAF and their other products by clicking here.

I see more people talking about the death of the 60/40 portfolio, but I haven’t heard a lot of talk about what the solution is. I don’t see a world where people give up on yield. Instead, I think investors will seek superior ways to generate yield, including more transparency, more accurate marks, and more robust resilience to the whims of our government.

Hope everyone has a great day. I will talk to you on Monday.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

Bitcoin Debate: Pomp DESTROYS Peter Schiff

Peter Schiff is the host of The Peter Schiff Show podcast and a longtime economist and gold advocate.

In this conversation, we break down real inflation versus the official CPI, the Fed's political motivations, and whether AI and tariffs are inflationary or deflationary. We also cover the Iran war's impact on oil, Social Security's looming collapse, and a five-year bet on bitcoin versus gold.

Podcast Sponsors

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2. Arch Public’s platform automates your trading strategy beyond DCA for equities, commodities, ETFs, and crypto. With advanced inputs that reflect your own intentions, Arch Public supports smarter entries, exits, and opportunities in volatile markets. Connect with their team, try the product for free, and see how agentic trading can work for you, with Arch Public!

3. TikTok for Business — If your company is spending on ads and you’re ignoring TikTok, you may be missing one of the largest and most engaged audiences available today. Learn more at TikTok for Business!

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5. BitcoinIRA - Save up to 37% in capital gains taxes on your retirement investments. Signup today and win up to $4,000 in rewards.

6. mogul — Invest in tokenized residential real estate with targeted yields, monthly rent payouts, and no landlord headaches. Learn more at mogul.club/pomp.

7. Plaud - Plaud builds AI-powered wearable devices designed to help people capture, organize, and recall important information from real-world conversations and moments.

8. Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp

9. Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com

10. Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

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To investors,

My businesses have experienced first-hand the problems with the legacy financial system. We have had businesses debanked or restricted. I am not saying that in a metaphorical way. Some of our companies were literally kicked out as customers because of the industries we operated in. Large financial institutions have refused to open bank accounts in the past or they have put insane restrictions on the services we can access.

At one point, it became a weekly problem we had to solve. A business that I owned or had invested in would be dealing with some new challenge. It didn’t matter how much money we had deposited at the banks, nor how influential our contacts at the banks were. We had committed the ultimate sin — we were taking risk by being ambitious.

The legacy organizations hate risk. They hide behind the regulators and claim there is nothing they can do. But it became obvious to me that this wasn’t a story about risk, but rather a story about dinosaur organizations who didn’t understand new technologies, new industries, or the need for new startups.

It wasn’t worth complaining though. That wasn’t going to get us anywhere. In fact, it would have made the problem worse. So instead, I started looking for an alternative solution. That is when I came across Palmer Luckey’s new company, Erebor.

They describe themselves with the following:

“Erebor is a nationally chartered bank purpose-built for the innovation economy. The company serves businesses across aerospace, defense, manufacturing, hardware, energy, and artificial intelligence. Erebor combines traditional deposit-taking and lending with a differentiated treasury management platform providing customers with a menu of yield across checking, savings, U.S. Treasuries, corporate bonds, stablecoins, and other instruments — all within a single regulated banking relationship. Founded in 2025 and headquartered in Columbus, Ohio, Erebor is the definitive financial partner for companies building the future.”

The thought of a one-year old technology startup getting fully licensed as a national bank would have been unfathomable a decade ago. But regulators and politicians have realized that we need new types of institutions if we want America to continue being the global leader on innovation and technology.

One market commentator explained the importance of Erebor with this explanation:

“The emergence of Erebor Bank is a direct reaction to the extreme volatility that characterized the venture banking sector between 2023 and 2025. Following the failure of legacy institutions that once anchored the startup ecosystem, founders often found themselves navigating a fragmented banking environment where traditional commercial lenders lacked the technical depth to underwrite complex hardware or unconventional assets. Erebor was designed to solve this underwriting gap by internalizing both the regulatory authority of a national charter and the engineering expertise required to value the physical tools of modern industry.⁴

The bank operates as a B2B relationship institution with a heavy focus on founders and investors within the innovation economy. Its core value proposition lies in its regulated balance sheet, which allows it to earn spread income and service revenue while providing stablecoin-native services. By serving high-risk use cases that traditional banks avoid, such as defense-tech and AI infrastructure, Erebor attracts deposits that support deep credit relationships. This specialized strategy creates a thick capital cushion intended to signal long-term stability to clients who have seen other niche lenders fail.”

Given the importance of Erebor as a key piece of infrastructure for the innovation economy, I am excited to support them. Today we are revealing that ProCap Financial, our agentic finance company traded on Nasdaq under ticker BRR, has become one of the first public companies to open an account with Erebor.

We are looking forward to working with the Erebor for more of our banking needs as they continue building out their services. Technology companies operating at the tip of the spear need banking infrastructure that understands where the world is going. I have found the Erebor team to be the exact type of partner we have been looking for.

Hopefully the rise of Erebor will inspire more entrepreneurs to tackle hard problems in regulated industries. The hard thing is worth doing if it can unlock more innovation from millions of companies.

If anyone would like to inquire about moving over to Erebor, feel free to reach out to Noah Pompan at noah@erebor.bank

I hope everyone has a great day. I will talk to you next time.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

The Investor Betting BILLIONS on AI

Nick Grossman is a General Partner at Union Square Ventures.

In this conversation, we break down his “Rebel Alliance” thesis for AI — why he believes the industry is too big for one or two companies to dominate. We also discuss USV’s internal multi-agent platform, model routing economics, AI’s growing role in venture capital and financial markets, data privacy risks, and what happens to jobs and society as agents get smarter.

Podcast Sponsors

1. Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.

2. Arch Public’s platform automates your trading strategy beyond DCA for equities, commodities, ETFs, and crypto. With advanced inputs that reflect your own intentions, Arch Public supports smarter entries, exits, and opportunities in volatile markets. Connect with their team, try the product for free, and see how agentic trading can work for you, with Arch Public!

3. TikTok for Business — If your company is spending on ads and you’re ignoring TikTok, you may be missing one of the largest and most engaged audiences available today. Learn more at TikTok for Business!

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6. mogul — Invest in tokenized residential real estate with targeted yields, monthly rent payouts, and no landlord headaches. Learn more at mogul.club/pomp.

7. Plaud - Plaud builds AI-powered wearable devices designed to help people capture, organize, and recall important information from real-world conversations and moments.

8. Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp

9. Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com

10. Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

The AI industry is moving at warp speed. Every day there is a new announcement about a company, project, or funding round that is supposed to be bigger, better, and more profitable than the last one. At the tip of the spear is the largest data center project in American history, which happens to count Kevin O’Leary as one of its most famous partners.

My wife, Polina Pompliano, recently wrote a long-form profile on Kevin’s rise to fame and riches. She specifically talked to him and his critics about the data center project, including the death threats he receives and his response to the detractors.

I have included an excerpt from the profile below. You can read the full article by clicking here.

O’Leary can’t remember the first death threat, only that they’ve become a recurring part of his life. They arrive in every form imaginable — handwritten letters, emails, direct messages, and public social media posts. “I mean, it’s fucking nuts,” he says.

The latest wave started after O’Leary decided to enter the AI race.

While many investors are betting on artificial intelligence software, O’Leary is betting on the infrastructure that underpins it. His proposed Stratos Project would build a massive AI and cloud-computing campus in Box Elder County, Utah — a development supporters see as essential to America’s technological future and critics see as an existential threat to the region’s land, water, and power resources.

As the fight intensified, the dispute became increasingly personal. O’Leary accused several prominent critics, including Utah political strategist Gabrielle Finlayson, of acting as proxies for the Chinese government.

Weeks later, he publicly acknowledged he had “no evidence” to support the allegation. Finlayson is one of the plaintiffs now suing O’Leary and Fox News for defamation over the allegations. “I spent years building my reputation, my business, and the trust of my community,” Finlayson said in a statement announcing the lawsuit. “In just weeks, Kevin O’Leary tore it all down with lies.”

In a statement, O’Leary’s attorney Jeffrey Neiman said O’Leary intends to “defend this lawsuit vigorously” and may bring counterclaims. He called the suit a “cash grab,” arguing that the plaintiffs declined O’Leary’s invitation to discuss the project and used his remarks to raise money. “We look forward to discovery and uncovering the facts related to the misinformation campaign against the data center in Utah,” Neiman said.

Finlayson has referred to O’Leary as “the Canadian who is trying to ruin Utah.” Speaking on a podcast, she said opposition to the proposed AI data centers had become “so strong and so severe,” adding: “These folks don’t always know what’s going to come for them when they decide to put a giant thing no one wants in the middle of people’s homes.”

It’s not the first time O’Leary has landed at the center of a public firestorm. He tells me that he says exactly what he thinks and accepts whatever follows.

When cryptocurrency exchange FTX collapsed in 2022, O’Leary became one of its most visible casualties. FTX had paid him $15 million to serve as a spokesperson, and suddenly he found himself answering questions on national television about one of the largest financial scandals in recent memory.

O’Leary remembers seeing the word “fraud” in relation to FTX flash on the screen during a Fox News segment, and he checked his account to find the money was gone. He called FTX co-founder and CEO Sam Bankman-Fried and reportedly asked, “What’s going on with the accounts, Sam?”

O’Leary was one of the last people to speak with Bankman-Fried, so he had to testify to Congress about what he knew. “It was the first crisis that I’d ever been through,” he says. “And then I remembered something my mother said: ‘Just tell the truth, and you never have to remember what you said.’”

The first few days were brutal. “When shit was flying everywhere and the phone was just ringing, ringing, ringing, I said, ‘Fuck, what a nightmare,’” he says. “Why am I the poster boy for this when there’s 20 other guys that took money?”

Many celebrities who promoted FTX distanced themselves after the collapse. But O’Leary doubled down. He was on TV every day defending his prior involvement with the company.

When I ask him why he kept going on air, he answers as if stating the obvious: “Because I hadn’t been charged with anything.” The experience, he says, taught him to distinguish the signal from the noise. “The media cycle for the big stories is 48 hours,” he says. “After that, it starts to burn off.”

In interviews immediately after FTX failed, he refused to condemn Bankman-Fried.

CNBC’s Andrew Ross Sorkin pressed him directly: “Kevin, you are an actor in this drama, and you had a front-row seat to Bankman-Fried up until the very end. What do you think happened? Do you think this was a fraud?” To which Kevin responded that he doesn’t have all the facts yet.

Financier Anthony Scaramucci, who was also caught in the fallout from FTX’s collapse, remembers feeling “shell-shocked” by the backlash. O’Leary, he says, remained steadfast. “He defended Sam, and he didn’t care about the public opinion,” Scaramucci says.

In a 2022 Senate hearing, O’Leary argued that FTX competitor Binance had intentionally driven FTX out of business while benefiting from what he viewed as lax regulatory oversight that allowed it to dominate the market.

I ask whether experiences like FTX and the death threats surrounding the Stratos Project have made O’Leary more cautious about what he says publicly.

They have not. “The brand is about being authentic — even though it’s controversial,” O’Leary says. “That’s the brand.”

This was an excerpt from Polina Pompliano’s profile of Kevin O’Leary titled Kevin O’Leary Is Happy Playing the Villain.

You can read the entire article by clicking here. I promise it will be worth your time.

Read Kevin O'Leary Profile

Hope everyone has a great day. I will talk to you next time.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

The Investor Betting BILLIONS on AI

Nick Grossman is a General Partner at Union Square Ventures.

In this conversation, we break down his "Rebel Alliance" thesis for AI — why he believes the industry is too big for one or two companies to dominate. We also discuss USV's internal multi-agent platform, model routing economics, AI's growing role in venture capital and financial markets, data privacy risks, and what happens to jobs and society as agents get smarter.

Podcast Sponsors

1. Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.

2. Arch Public’s platform automates your trading strategy beyond DCA for equities, commodities, ETFs, and crypto. With advanced inputs that reflect your own intentions, Arch Public supports smarter entries, exits, and opportunities in volatile markets. Connect with their team, try the product for free, and see how agentic trading can work for you, with Arch Public!

3. TikTok for Business — If your company is spending on ads and you’re ignoring TikTok, you may be missing one of the largest and most engaged audiences available today. Learn more at TikTok for Business!

4. BloFin - BloFin is a fast-growing cryptocurrency exchange focused on providing professional-grade trading tools, deep liquidity, and a secure trading environment for crypto traders worldwide.

5. BitcoinIRA - Save up to 37% in capital gains taxes on your retirement investments. Signup today and win up to $4,000 in rewards.

6. mogul — Invest in tokenized residential real estate with targeted yields, monthly rent payouts, and no landlord headaches. Learn more at mogul.club/pomp.

7. Plaud - Plaud builds AI-powered wearable devices designed to help people capture, organize, and recall important information from real-world conversations and moments.

8. Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp

9. Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com

10. Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

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To investors,

The entire US economy runs on the assumption that the Federal Reserve is targeting 2% inflation. That number is supposed to create enough dollar debasement to incentivize consumption and investment, while not being so destructive that it financially hurts the average American.

You can throw the academic theory out the window though.

The Fed has been running inflation at approximately 4% per year since 2019. That is double their stated target, but more importantly it appears to be an intentional structural change that is being done in stealth. If you listen to various Fed Chairman’s words, you will hear them remain committed to the 2% target, but if you look at their actions, you will see a completely different story.

Creative Planning’s Charlie Bilello points out that inflation has been significantly above the Fed’s target for 64 straight months, yet the Fed is still expanding their balance sheet in the last 7 months to the tune of more than $200 billion.

You don’t expand your balance sheet while inflation is running hot unless one of two things are true: 1) you believe that a significant deflationary force is on the horizon and you are expanding the balance sheet in preparation, or 2) you have unofficially decided to run the economy hotter than your stated 2% inflation target.

While I believe AI, robotics, deportations, and tariffs are deflationary, I do not believe the Fed is in the business of expanding their balance sheet in anticipation of those forces. In fact, the Fed has proven to be one of the most reactive organizations in America, which has been a big driver of the mistakes they have made over the last two decades.

So the only logical conclusion I can come to is the Fed has decided internally they are comfortable with inflation running at 3% or 4% for the years to come. If that is true, investors have to update their mental model on how to invest their capital.

I used to jokingly say the Crazy Uncle portfolio would be a great bet for investors. This would be what your crazy uncle talks about at Thanksgiving dinner, which consists of land, gold, bitcoin, and ammunition. Take Texas Pacific Land Corporation (Nasdaq: TPL) as one example. The company has increased 150% in the last 5 years.

General Dynamics, one of the largest defense companies in the world, has approximately doubled in the same time frame.

Bitcoin has struggled in the last two years, including a negative return, but that followed a substantial run up in the years prior. However, gold has been the big surprise to most investors, especially when you realize that gold’s return has outperformed the S&P 500 going back 8 of the last 10 years if you held until today.

The reason I call attention to these types of assets is that I am convinced the Fed has made a change in strategy, but they are smart enough to know they can’t publicly admit it. The American central bank must keep the charade of 2% inflation target. They haven’t succeeded in that mandate in a half decade and I don’t see a world where they are going to get back to 2% in the official metrics any time soon.

Thankfully, for all investors, investment assets are going to do well in a persistently higher inflation environment. But it is important to understand that non-productive assets may continue to outperform productive assets in that environment, which will break the brains of many traditionalists.

Like I said, if the Fed has made a strategic change, you will have to update your mental model.

Hope everyone has a great start to their week. I will talk to you next time.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

Bitcoin's Next Move Depends On One Fed Decision

Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack.

In this conversation, we break down the AI stock slowdown, why China’s new Kimi K3 model is upending the AI trade, and the hidden cultural bias baked into these systems. We also discuss the cooler inflation report, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s early moves, Bitcoin’s reaction, and why robotics could be the next big AI trade.

Podcast Sponsors

1. Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.

2. Arch Public’s platform automates your trading strategy beyond DCA for equities, commodities, ETFs, and crypto. With advanced inputs that reflect your own intentions, Arch Public supports smarter entries, exits, and opportunities in volatile markets. Connect with their team, try the product for free, and see how agentic trading can work for you, with Arch Public!

3. TikTok for Business — If your company is spending on ads and you’re ignoring TikTok, you may be missing one of the largest and most engaged audiences available today. Learn more at TikTok for Business!

4. BloFin - BloFin is a fast-growing cryptocurrency exchange focused on providing professional-grade trading tools, deep liquidity, and a secure trading environment for crypto traders worldwide.

5. BitcoinIRA - Save up to 37% in capital gains taxes on your retirement investments. Signup today and win up to $4,000 in rewards.

6. mogul — Invest in tokenized residential real estate with targeted yields, monthly rent payouts, and no landlord headaches. Learn more at mogul.club/pomp.

7. Plaud - Plaud builds AI-powered wearable devices designed to help people capture, organize, and recall important information from real-world conversations and moments.

8. Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp

9. Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com

10. Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

Most companies are already spending on search, social, and display ads. But many are still underestimating TikTok for Business.

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To investors,

Inflation appears to have peaked and is now starting to come down according to the CPI report yesterday. The government reported 3.5% CPI and core CPI came in at 2.6%. These are ice cold numbers compared to economists expectations.

The headline CPI number fell -0.4% in the last month, which is the largest inflation decline month-over-month in more than 6 years. Naturally, this report is being celebrated by economists, politicians, and investors. The lower numbers significantly decrease the odds of the Fed hiking interest rates later this year.

A big contributing factor to the free fall in official inflation numbers is a -9% drop in gasoline and fuel prices. You can draw a straight line between consumer inflation and the hopeful ending of the Iran war.

But there is one big problem with this report that no one is talking about.

The data is tricking everyone. If you are an investor or a business executive, this report makes things seem like things are getting better. And technically that is true in terms of rate of change, but the average American doesn’t care about the rate of change. They simply care about the aggregate cost of living.

Take New York City as an example. This weekend it was reported that median rents in the city have risen 8% in the last year and hit a new all-time high of $5,295 per month. I don’t care what the CPI number says, majority of people can’t afford to pay $5,000 per month to live in an apartment.

A similar story is playing out at your local grocery store. Eggs, milk, peanut butter, and a plethora of other items have skyrocketed in the last 5 or 6 years. Every time I go to the grocery store, it feels like I am guaranteed to spend $75 - $100. Again, the data can say whatever it wants, yet this rise in cost is putting ridiculous pressure on the average American.

The reason I feel so strongly about this situation is because I have started spending more time talking to people outside of the business and finance community. I wanted to understand what their actual experience has been. Not what the data says, but what are the people feeling in their life. Additionally, I wanted to understand why socialism is on the rise and there seems to be a widespread belief that financial success is a result worth condemning.

In an effort to get answers, I recently went to Yankee Stadium and asked people for thoughts on why everything is so expensive. You can watch the video below. [warning: there is some foul language from folks, but I promise no fun was had by anyone :) ]

My big takeaway from these conversations was everyone knows life got more expensive, yet none of them can articulate why it happened. There was no talk of CPI, the national debt, or interest rates. That isn’t in the vernacular of the average citizen.

They speak in terms of gas, groceries, and rent. Each of those items has exploded in cost over the last half-decade, which is changing the way people act and think.

So just remember, while it was great to see the lower CPI numbers from the government report yesterday, there is no relief on the way for majority of US citizens. Prices are not coming back down any time soon. A lower inflation number merely means prices are going up slower than they were, but they are still continuing to increase.

We need widespread deflation in consumer prices to actually have an impact on affordability in the country. That means we have to build more housing, reduce regulation for small business, and hope AI can flourish in a way that creates the promised productivity boom.

The situation is not ideal. You have a government incentivized to keep printing money and destroying the purchasing power of the dollar. And the average American is the one paying the penalty for this lack of discipline from our leaders.

You don’t have to believe me. You can just hear the people explain it for yourselves if you are open-minded enough to listen to them.

Hope everyone has a great day. I will talk to you next time.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

I Have To Save My $150 Million Company | The Mission Ep. 003

Welcome to Episode 003 of The Mission — a day in my life running a business in New York City.

Today I’m walking you through my plan to bring my company out of debt, why we need to do it, what we’re doing to accomplish our mission, and how YOU can help us.

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8. Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com

9. mogul — Invest in tokenized residential real estate with targeted yields, monthly rent payouts, and no landlord headaches. Learn more at mogul.club/pomp.

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🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

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To investors,

If you want your child to learn, the best thing you can do is give them personalized 1-on-1 tutoring. If you want to be healthy, the best thing you can do is get personalized 1-on-1 private healthcare.

So what should you do if you want to grow your wealth?

Get personalized 1-on-1 insights about your specific financial situation. That is the big idea behind Silvia, the AI CFO product that we launched last year. This morning we announced that Silvia has officially crossed $50 billion in assets on the platform in only 14 months.

To put that number in context, if we were a fee-only RIA (which we are not), we would be one of the top 5 largest RIAs in the country. We accomplished this feat with only a handful of employees and state-of-the-art artificial intelligence technology.

But there is only one big problem. Silvia is part of ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR), a publicly traded company that has seen its stock fall ~90% from its all-time high price last year.

I hate losing. It eats at me like a disease spreading through my body. There is no way that I am going to sit around and watch the company suffer. That is why I released this video earlier today:

It feels like the whole world is betting against me and the company, but that is why I am energized to pull off the impossible comeback.

We have a strong foundation to build off. Here are some interesting data points about Silvia:

• More than $50 billion in total assets connected to the platform

• Average user net worth is more than $2.5 million

• Paying members chat with Silvia more than 20 times per week on average

• Within two months of launching monetization, more than 10% of Silvia’s monthly active users are paying members

• Power users have seen typical net worth gains of 16-41% in less than a year on the platform

A good foundation is a starting point. We still have to go build a large, profitable company though. There is going to be a ton of work ahead of us. It won’t be easy. We aren’t guaranteed success either. But I am committed to solving the problems of self-directed, independent investors. If we accomplish that mission, we will end up with a very successful company too.

Silvia vs The World….I like our chances.

Have a great day. I will talk to everyone next time.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

Has Bitcoin Hit The Bottom?

Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack.

In this conversation, we discuss why he thinks the AI mid-cycle slowdown is over, why he's turning bullish on bitcoin, tokenization and stablecoins. We also cover the Fed's July rate decision and where he's finding value in gold, silver, and regional banks.

Podcast Sponsors

1. Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.

2. Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)

3. TikTok for Business — If your company is spending on ads and you’re ignoring TikTok, you may be missing one of the largest and most engaged audiences available today. Learn more at TikTok for Business!

4. BloFin - BloFin is a fast-growing cryptocurrency exchange focused on providing professional-grade trading tools, deep liquidity, and a secure trading environment for crypto traders worldwide.

5. BitcoinIRA - Save up to 37% in capital gains taxes on your retirement investments. Signup today and win up to $4,000 in rewards.

6. Plaud - Plaud builds AI-powered wearable devices designed to help people capture, organize, and recall important information from real-world conversations and moments.

7. Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp

8. Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com

9. mogul — Invest in tokenized residential real estate with targeted yields, monthly rent payouts, and no landlord headaches. Learn more at mogul.club/pomp.

10. Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX). Trade crypto, gold, forex, stocks and more on one platform. 24/7 access, deep liquidity, low fees, up to 500x leverage. Join Bitget today.

11. Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

A few weeks ago I said, “Most of crypto is dead, and most of what’s left isn’t coming back.” The noise didn’t surprise me. The DMs did.

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To investors,

Affordability remains one of the Achilles heels of the US economy. No matter how high the stock market goes, a significant portion of the population continues to feel they can’t afford every day items needed for a normal American life.

The main driver behind the lack of affordability has become a political hot potato. No one wants to accept responsibility and everyone thinks “the other side” did it. The truth is that both political parties are responsible for some part of the problem. A single boogeyman doesn’t exist. Politicians have spent money like drunken sailors and the national debt continues to grow towards the sky, which has eroded the dollar’s purchasing power and punished savers.

That fact isn’t controversial. But plenty of other theories people have presented have been labeled as conspiracy theories by those trying to protect their narrative.

One of those theories has been the rise in illegal immigration over the last few years has led to an increase in home prices. This is no longer a conspiracy theory though. The Federal Reserve of Dallas published an entire paper earlier this year titled “The Impacts of Unauthorized Immigration on U.S. Labor and Housing Markets: New Evidence from Administrative Microdata.”

The paper unsurprisingly finds the unprecedented surge in illegal immigration created higher home prices and rents. Fox Business explains the math:

“A 1% increase in unauthorized workers relative to a local labor force corresponded with roughly a 1% increase in overall employment, with no evidence the immigration surge reduced average wages. The same 1% increase, however, was associated with a roughly 2.2% rise in home prices and a 1.4% increase in rents. Researchers found little evidence that homebuilding expanded enough to meet the added demand, concluding the influx acted as a housing demand shock in markets where supply was already constrained.”

Some people may read nuanced analysis coming out of the Fed and conclude that these academics have no clue what they are talking about. I am not exactly the biggest fan of the Fed, so I would understand the skepticism. Thankfully, we are starting to see the impact of this trend reversed, which is giving us hard data on the potential positive impact on the housing market.

Bloomberg’s Prashant Gopal and Tanaz Meghjani recently put together a great article titled “H-1B Crackdown on Indian Workers Erodes a Texas Real Estate Boom” where they write:

“Visa holders flocked to the new subdivisions spreading north through the suburbs of Prosper, Frisco and, most of all, Celina, where the population more than tripled in just five years. That helped make Collin and Denton the fastest-growing US counties among those with a population of at least 1 million, the most recent census data show. Collin also had the biggest percentage jump in Indian residents among large counties, climbing to an average of more than 116,000 in the five years through 2024, from 70,000 in the preceding five years.

But the momentum is quickly reversing. Indian buyers are disappearing from the market as federal and state governments tighten H-1B restrictions and many of the tech companies that employed the new arrivals fire workers in favor of artificial intelligence. Prices in the Collin County suburbs north of Dallas in February dropped almost 9% from a year earlier, compared with a decline of 4% in the metro area as a whole, according to data from brokerage Redfin.

The shift has knocked down home prices, slowed population expansion and risks eroding the tax base needed to fund schools and roads planned during a five-year growth streak. The changes also take a personal toll on immigrants because many have lived in the US for years and have established families and communities. Those on H-1B visas who lose their jobs not only face financial hardship but also risk having to return to their home countries if they can’t get sponsored for another position within 60 days.”

This anecdotal example hammers home the argument that widespread immigration, whether legal or illegal, has put persistent pressure on home prices. This is basic supply and demand from your Economics 101 class. Legal immigration is by definition legal. You may or may not agree with various visa programs, but that is a completely different debate.

The obvious issue that should have bipartisan support is the prevention of illegal immigration, especially if we want to improve affordability in America. The reason I say it should have bipartisan support is because both Republicans and Democrats have been talking about the negative impact of illegal immigration for decades.

You can turn on your TV and see Trump discussing it non-stop every day. You can also watch a clip like this one where President Obama was advocating for more ICE raids at people’s place of work to stamp down on illegal immigration. I was honestly shocked when I saw that clip because so much of the current political conversation has turned into partisan mud slinging.

Economics doesn’t care about the blame game though. Supply and demand rules the world. And now the Fed is talking about the potential positive impact of new immigration policy on home prices and the braoder affordability crisis. My guess is that the taboo theories are going to find a home in the mainstream conversation. I know these topics can be sensitive and politically energized, but they are important to understand as investors trying to think about what happens next.

If America becomes more affordable, not only is that good for American citizens but it will have a profound impact on our financial markets, political leaders, and sentiment across society.

Hope everyone has a great day. I will talk to you next time.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

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How To Invest In OpenAI and Anthropic Before They Go Public

Ankur Nagpal is the GP of USVC, a publicly accessible venture capital fund.

In this conversation, we break down how retail investors can now access private markets like OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX for as little as $500, and the controversy around USVC's Anduril investment, portfolio strategy, QSBS, tax alpha, and what it means to build wealth in America.

Podcast Sponsors

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2. Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)

3. TikTok for Business — If your company is spending on ads and you’re ignoring TikTok, you may be missing one of the largest and most engaged audiences available today. Learn more at TikTok for Business!

4. BloFin - BloFin is a fast-growing cryptocurrency exchange focused on providing professional-grade trading tools, deep liquidity, and a secure trading environment for crypto traders worldwide.

5. BitcoinIRA - Save up to 37% in capital gains taxes on your retirement investments. Signup today and win up to $4,000 in rewards.

6. Plaud - Plaud builds AI-powered wearable devices designed to help people capture, organize, and recall important information from real-world conversations and moments.

7. Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp

8. Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com

9. mogul — Invest in tokenized residential real estate with targeted yields, monthly rent payouts, and no landlord headaches. Learn more at mogul.club/pomp.

10. Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX). Trade crypto, gold, forex, stocks and more on one platform. 24/7 access, deep liquidity, low fees, up to 500x leverage. Join Bitget today.

11. Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

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To investors,

The United States celebrated its 250th birthday over the weekend. While most of the country was attending barbecues, shooting fireworks, or hanging with friends and family, the official launch of the Invest America (also known as Trump Accounts) went live on Saturday, July 4th.

These accounts are a very big deal in my opinion.

Before we get to my reasoning, Google explains this program is a federally-authorized, tax-deferred custodial investment account for children in the US. The program provides newborns (born between January 1, 2025 and December 31, 2028) with a one-time $1,000 government seed deposit in the account, along with allowing annual contributions of up to $5,000 from family or friends. The investment account funds are locked until the child reached at least 18 years of age, but they can continue being invested in the account until the age of retirement when they would be converted to a traditional IRA.

In order for a child to be eligible, they must be a US citizen, have a valid Social Security number, and be born between the approved dates for the program.

So why do I think these accounts are such a big deal?

First, compound interest is the 8th wonder of the world. A big reason why Warren Buffett is one of the world’s wealthiest people is because he started investing at the age of 11. Given that he is now over 90 years old, that means Buffett has been compounding for more than 80 years. I don’t care how much money you start with, compounding any amount for 8 decades will make you very rich.

The newborn Invest America account holders will start their investing careers the year they are born, so this is quite the head start for each participant.

Second, contributing to the Invest America accounts has already become a flex among corporations and business leaders. For example, Michael and Susan Dell committed $6.25 billion to the initiative to seed investment accounts for 25 million American children. The pledge provides $250 each to qualifying child aged 10 and under, aiming to help families build long-term wealth. This morning Gwynne Shotwell and her husband announced the donation of 2 million shares of SpaceX to approximately 2 million children. This is more than $300 million at today’s opening stock price.

Companies like JPMorgan, Bank of America, Steak & Shake, and Coinbase have also announced programs to match an additional $1,000 for each of their employees’ eligible children. Whether we are talking corporations or individuals, these are big dollars being pledged and that will eventually inspire many others to participate outside the government’s initial $1,000 seed investment.

Third, it is very rare to have bipartisan support for anything in government, but that is exactly what has happened with these accounts. In the last few days, I have seen Republicans, Democrats, and Independents all promoting the initiative, including telling their constituents to go sign up for the accounts. It would be a kamikaze mission for an elected official to oppose financial support for newborn children, regardless of which political party is in control when the accounts launched.

Fourth, the Invest America account is held in the name of the child (parents can’t take the money) and the funds can’t be accessed until the age of 18. At that point, an individual is not allowed to take the money and go on a shopping spree. Instead, the money is specifically earmarked for college, starting a business, the down payment on a home, or the capital can stay invested.

Lastly, the recent rise of socialism in America can be traced back to the K-shaped economy. When young people feel like they are falling behind, they become sympathetic to any political movement promising them a different system, especially one that comes wrapped in free buses and free healthcare.

But rather than condemning success and promising handouts, the United States will benefit from giving children a stake in the capitalist system. Help people grow their investment assets. Let them benefit from the system, so they don’t feel like the system doesn’t work later in life. It is hard to hate a thing that has helped you gain financial security.

We know the K-shaped economy exists today. That doesn’t mean we can’t take a long-term view on making sure that gap is much narrower in the future thought. That is ultimately why I think the Invest America accounts are so interesting. They create a long-term incentive that could impact tens of millions of future Americans.

That is an outcome we should all be able to get behind. If you have children and want to check their eligibility, you can go to the website here and open an account.

I hope all of you have a great start to your week. I will talk to everyone next time.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

Everyone Gave Up On Bitcoin At Exactly The Wrong Time

Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack.

In this conversation, we break down the AI mid-cycle slowdown, the Fed under Warsh and what rate cuts could mean for markets, the $90 trillion AI infrastructure buildout, memory and Micron's role in the AI bottleneck, and why Jordi believes bitcoin is positioned to be the best performing assets once the negatives of AI start to show up.

Podcast Sponsors

1. Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.

2. Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)

3. TikTok for Business — If your company is spending on ads and you're ignoring TikTok, you may be missing one of the largest and most engaged audiences available today. Learn more at TikTok for Business!

4. BitcoinIRA - Save up to 37% in capital gains taxes on your retirement investments. Signup today and win up to $4,000 in rewards.

5. Plaud - Plaud builds AI-powered wearable devices designed to help people capture, organize, and recall important information from real-world conversations and moments.

6. Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp

7. Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com

8. mogul — Invest in tokenized residential real estate with targeted yields, monthly rent payouts, and no landlord headaches. Learn more at mogul.club/pomp.

9. Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX). Trade crypto, gold, forex, stocks and more on one platform. 24/7 access, deep liquidity, low fees, up to 500x leverage. Join Bitget today.

10. Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com

11. BloFin - BloFin is a fast-growing cryptocurrency exchange focused on providing professional-grade trading tools, deep liquidity, and a secure trading environment for crypto traders worldwide.

🚨READER NOTE: If you want to sponsor The Pomp Letter, you can fill out this form and someone from our team will get in touch with you.

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

MetaMask has quietly become more than a wallet.

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To investors,

The end of June marks halftime for the 2026 investment year. Unfortunately, this isn’t peewee football, so there will be no water break or orange slices for investors. If that wasn’t bad enough, we have to remember that many investors went into the year with significant exposure to the Mag 7, but those stocks have significantly lagged the performance of the 493 other stocks in the S&P index.

The good news? The month of July has been the best performing month in the stock market over the last 20 years, according to Ryan Detrick.

The folks at OddStats show that positive performance in the first half of the year during a midterm year has historically led to positive performance in the second half of the year. The second half median return has been 2.8% when the first half was green.

Interestingly, Jim Bianco shows that non-AI stocks are starting to be negatively correlated to AI stocks. He points out “over the last week or so, the $SPX is down ~2% (black). AI-related stocks (red) have slumped ~4.52%. This is ~50/75 of the S&P 500. Non-Al stocks (orange) have soared ~2.31%. This is ~425 to 450. Is this market telling us it is bullish for the economy if AI stocks get crushed?”

This is only short-term performance, so we need more data before we can conclusively determine how to use this in an investment process, but the recent development is worth continuing to watch. In the least shocking news ever, the permabears are out in full force predicting the next great Dot Com bust from AI.

Of course, none of the permabears want to acknowledge that forward P/E multiples are lower today than they were at the start of the year. Boring Biz writes:

“A lot of people continue to compare the AI cycle with the dot-com bubble, without realizing that the run-up has been driven by fundamental earnings growth, while the 2000s was mostly just hopes and dreams

Forward P/E multiples in tech have contracted even as stock prices have gone up this time around.”

I guess don’t let pesky facts get in the way of some fear porn to scare everyone into believing you are smart.

Before I go off on a passionate tangent about the permabears, let’s get back to the potential performance of the stock market going forward. We don’t need to look at history to get excited about the next six months. The US stock market is performing well because the underlying fundamentals of the leading businesses have been growing at a rapid pace.

James Thorne put it nicely when he wrote about the End of Financial Engineering:

“For the first time in over a decade, the center of gravity in American capitalism is shifting from financial engineering back to the real economy.

For years, the dominant corporate playbook was simple: keep capital expenditure lean, recycle excess cash into share buybacks, and let multiple expansion and shrinking share counts do the heavy lifting. Capex was treated as a drag; buybacks were hailed as shareholder discipline. That framework is now colliding with a new political and strategic reality.

Scott Bessent has given that shift its intellectual anchor, invoking Alexander Hamilton’s dictum that every nation ought to endeavor to possess within itself all the essentials of national supply. The point is not autarky. It is that a nation cannot remain prosperous, secure, and sovereign if it outsources the foundations of industrial power.”

If financial engineering is not going to be rewarded like it has been in the past, then where should investors look to put their capital? Thorne continues:

“The AI buildout makes the investment case obvious. Markets may punish rising capex and reduced buybacks, but that capital is not disappearing. It is moving into concrete, steel, copper, power, logistics, and machinery. The same is true of energy security, agricultural capacity, and domestic supply chains more broadly.

Investors who cling to the low-capex, high-buyback playbook are effectively betting on a shrinking productive base in a world that is relearning the value of physical capacity. The better opportunity is to invest where capital is now flowing: the companies and sectors building the real economy.”

The real economy. Companies building real things. Solving hard problems. That is where value has historically accrued. The days of financial engineering are evaporating and being replaced by productive assets that continue accelerating.

That is why the AI trade has been sustainable. This isn’t some woo-woo nonsense. It is being driven by real companies that are solving one of the biggest problems in society. Fade the trend at your own peril.

Hope you have a great start to your week. I will talk to everyone next time.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

Why Are Bitcoin & AI Stocks CRASHING?!

Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack.

In this conversation, we break down the AI trade and why it's far from over, the memory shortage driving Micron, which AI models are winning and losing, how agentic loops are replacing white collar jobs, why bitcoin and the debasement trade are selling off — and what comes next.

Podcast Sponsors

1. Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.

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To investors,

All hell is about to break loose in the American AI model labs. They have previously enjoyed a dominate position in the market that allowed them to rent superhuman intelligence to billions of people and millions of businesses.

This is why Anthropic is rumored to be doing more than $50 billion in annual revenue with 15-20% free cash flow margin. You don’t accidentally build a company of that scale without having an oligopolistic position in the market. They were able to achieve this growth while OpenAI was growing to tens of billions in revenue, along with the stiff competition from Google’s Gemini, xAI’s Grok, and a few others.

But now there is a much, much bigger threat on the playing field: Chinese open-source models.

To understand what is happening, we first have to realize the problem that most companies have been facing over the last few months. Here is what I tweeted on May 22nd this year:

“There is a regime shift happening in how companies use AI models right now. Over the last year, founders and executives heavily encouraged their teams to adopt the technology. They created token leaderboards and pushed employees to get AI-pilled.

But then the expenses started to hit company financials.

Now executives are working to increase token efficiency. They still want their teams using AI models, but they are finding ways to cut overall token usage. The goal is no longer “use as many tokens as possible,” but rather “be as productive per token as possible.”

It may seem like a subtle change. It is not. Teams are re-writing their internal and external software to cut token usage, while increasing usage & productivity.

I see it inside our companies on a daily basis. For example, we have cut overall token usage at CFO Silvia but we have continued to grow the user base, assets, and total output.

This will be a major theme over the next 12 months.”

A month after that tweet, it seems that I drastically underestimated how fast and severe the pivot would be. Not only are companies looking to reduce token costs by changing their workflows or rewriting how their software uses American AI models, but now some companies are abandoning the closed-source models for a large portion of their work.

Rohan Paul writes:

“UBS says 60% of companies now watching AI budgets are moving to cheaper models and open-source Chinese models

The pressure is coming from extreme bills, including users spending up to $35K/month, teams exceeding quotas by 200%, and companies cutting internal AI tools from 5 to 2.

Companies are not abandoning AI, they are using model routing, which sends easy tasks to cheaper models and saves premium models for hard reasoning, code, and long-context work.

Chinese open-source models such as Qwen, DeepSeek, MiniMax, GLM, and Kimi now fit the enterprise cost curve because they can be run locally or used through cloud catalogs.”

So what do you do if you are an American AI model lab that is watching your customers start adopting Chinese open-source models? Well, you try to stop the exodus. One path is to out compete these open-source models, but you have already been working on that with your internal technology teams. The other path is to look for regulatory protection that stops or slows the opposition.

Bill Gurley points out that Anthropic appears to have engaged Option #2 over the last few weeks. He posted the following in a series of tweets:

“These overly aggressive grabs at regulatory capture come at the exact time as price rationalization & optimization are pushing partners and customers towards other solutions (as the example shows). Hope the government knows they are being manipulated…This is what’s causing Anthropic to aggressively beg for government protection (Rohan’s tweet above). Customers are finding cheaper alternatives. Keeping employees requires continuing ultra-rich secondaries ($$$) that are dependent on revenue growth. When you can’t win on the field go to DC…Anthropic could have sued in court (as others have). But they want something far more valuable than simple restitution. They want the US government’s “protection against competition” for years and years. A court can’t provide that.”

These are strong words coming from Gurley. There are always two sides to a story though. The counter-argument comes from Brad Gerstner when he wrote:

“Fable is currently export controlled & rumors are that 5.6 will also be subject to an approval framework. Whatever jiu jitsu the Chinese are using to get us slow down our own frontier models while letting their models run free appears to be working. Who is capturing who?”

As I said, all hell is about to break loose inside these large language models. They have essentially agreed to the US government demand to allow the latest models to get government approval. That is de-facto national control even if the large AI labs don’t realize it yet.

So the question becomes what are the ramifications of this development?

The most thorough analysis I have heard comes from Box CEO Aaron Levie. He writes:

“We now have de facto AI regulation. It’s not obvious why from here on out models that have certain levels of capability or are trained on certain compute sizes won’t have to be reviewed by the government before release.

Realistically, as AI models became more and more powerful this was going to be inevitable (I think it’s too early, but here we are). So now it’s mostly just interesting to think about the implications and scenarios from here. A few would be:

* America gets to control who gets access to frontier intelligence and when. This generally works as long as we remain at the frontier at all times and don’t have a risk of being surpassed. At the moment we have a clear lead in frontier intelligence so this is a good bet, but lots of motivated parties would love to change that.

* This likely creates backlog of AI releases which means that we will see less rapid fire back and forth jumps in model progress. Bull/fine case is that we just get bigger step functions per release at a slower rate and we end up at the same point we would have. Bear case is those incremental smaller jumps were necessary for the continued flywheel of innovation.

* Other countries likely have even more incentive to at least hedge their bets with sovereign AI strategies so aren’t dependent on access to US AI all times. Previously this was relatively moot because the alternative wasn’t good enough, but that could change out of necessity and what we’re seeing in China.

* Open weights obviously a big winner here as it becomes what likely sovereign AI gets built out on, and what (for now) can still be released to the market without the same controls. One interesting question would be how regulation eventually extends to open models, which would have its own set of long term consequences.

Anyway some big updates to everyone’s mental models of AI regulation as a result of the capabilities we’re now seeing in AI. Wild times.”

Wild times indeed. The AI industry is only going to grow in national importance, which means politicians and regulators are going to have a field day fighting for more control over time. That changes the playing field significantly and it gives the open-source models a big boost in their fight for adoption.

People and businesses want cheaper access to superhuman intelligence. The US government wants more control over the technology. And investors are looking for higher and higher rates of growth.

You simply can’t get all three of those at the same time, so at least one group is going to be disappointed. I will let you decide for yourself who will be the winners and losers.

Hope everyone has a great end to their week. I will talk to you on Monday.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

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The K Shaped Economy Continues To Widen

Darius Dale is the founder and CEO of 42 Macro, a leading investment research firm.

In this conversation, we break down what Kevin Warsh's Fed chairmanship means for monetary policy, the K-shaped economy creating historic affordability pain for millions of Americans, and why every investor must participate in asset markets to survive financial repression.

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To investors,

Inflation has been the big boogeyman for investors over the last two years. The doomsday predictors promised that tariffs would lead to high inflation, but those higher prices never materialized. Jerome Powell and the Fed eventually admitted they had misread the inflation impact and that tariffs did not have the negative impact they anticipated.

Once the tariff-related inflation concerns subsided, we ended 2025 with a central bankers dream of a low-inflation, high-growth economy.

This attractive environment didn’t last long though. President Trump and his administration ordered the bombing of Iran in late February, which led to the closing of the Strait of Hormuz and significantly higher energy prices globally. These higher energy prices created a spike in US inflation and the market commentators have been having a field day since with new promises of sky-high inflation that is right around the corner.

The New York Times published an article last month titled “Prices in the U.S. Are Rising at the Fastest Pace in Years.” ABC News wrote last week “Fed holds interest rates steady as inflation hits 3-year high.” And Bloomberg wrote yesterday “Fed’s Goolsbee Says Too-High Inflation Is ‘Going the Wrong Way.’”

Even Torsten Slok from Apollo seems to have a weird take on inflation. He wrote this morning:

The narrative in markets is changing from “lower oil prices mean lower inflation” to “lower oil prices mean more demand in an already overheating economy, which means higher inflation.”

This breakdown in the correlation between rates and oil prices can be seen in the chart below.

Driven by the strong April CPI, hot May non-farm payrolls and a hawkish Fed, the market narrative now suggests that the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will further overheat the economy, forcing the Fed to raise interest rates soon.

This mainstream coverage is unfortunately looking in the rearview mirror. Inflation expectations have cratered over the last few weeks, which signals a newfound level of confidence that the previously rising inflation will likely be temporary.

James Thorne writes “doomers were wrong about inflation. Inflation expectations now lower than the beginning of the year.” That is a narrative violation if I have ever seen one.

Azoria Capital shows inflation expectations have been falling across the entire US Breakeven curve (2 year, 5 year, 10 year, and 30 year).

Somehow the major banks are confused by the latest developments. Bank of America is predicting three interest rate hikes before year end and Morgan Stanley is predicting zero. How the views of these organizations can be so widely different is always perplexing to me, but it highlights the complexity of the existing environment.

Oil is down nearly 40% since the March high. Inflation expectations have fallen from the sky. The odds of a recession in the US has plummeted to one of the lowest levels in years. And my guess is that headline inflation numbers are going to start their descent in the third quarter. If all this remains true, not only will the Fed refrain from raising interest rates, but there is a good chance we will get at least one interest rate cut before the end of the year.

Lower rates would bring higher asset prices. Be careful of the doomsday predictors. They are using the recent market weakness to claim victory, but it is more likely we are living through the seasonal “June Swoon.”

July will come, assets will recover, and everyone will realize the bull market is just getting warmed up.

Hope you have a great day. I will talk to everyone next time.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

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I Just Revealed My Current Portfolio…

I sat down with my brother John, cover the Mag 7 selloff, AI CapEx fears, and why inflation is more under control than the headlines suggest.

We also break down Anthony's current portfolio, what Kevin Warsh is really doing at the Fed, and why bitcoin's volatility is a feature heading into its next decade.

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To investors,

The Magnificent 7 stocks have been a large driver of investment returns for millions of Americans over the last few years. But the darlings of the stock market have now fallen from grace.

Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick writes “the Mag 7 down year-to-date and the 493 [other stocks] up more than 13% year-to-date is one of the most incredible stories from an incredible year so far. It wasn’t that long ago that most client meetings were all about why don’t we only invest in these 7 stocks?”

Thankfully, indexes are a team sport and the other 493 stocks have helped the S&P 500 stay positive to the tune of 9% since the start of 2026. It is uncommon to have the entire market driving investor profits though.

Lance Roberts points out that “research spanning 1926–2025 finds that just 41% of US stocks outperformed Treasury bills over their lifetimes, with only 46 companies generating half of the market’s $91 trillion in cumulative wealth creation.”

This is a good historical fact to understand, but it doesn’t excuse the poor performance from the Mag 7.

In hindsight, the sell-off and lack of performance shouldn’t be surprising. These seven stocks became more than 30% of the S&P index at one point, which highlights just how dominant the businesses were compared to peers. Some will argue the relative weakness over the last six months is a cooling off period. While there may be some truth to that theory, I don’t think you can exclusively rely on it as the driver for the most popular stocks suddenly losing steam.

It is more likely these stocks are suffering from higher inflationary pressures from the Iran war (reminder: growth stocks are long duration assets that are very sensitive to these issues) and big questions around the expected ROI from the insane CAPEX spending from the hyperscalers.

I can’t have a conversation with a public market investor without them asking my opinion on whether AI adoption is going to slow down. So many of these investors are scared of their own shadow and genuinely believe there could be some sort of boogeyman where the world suddenly doesn’t find this new technology valuable.

I obviously disagree with their concerns and believe AI adoption is going to accelerate from here. But my opinion won’t prop up the Mag 7, nor will it prevent investors from rotating their capital into smaller stocks they deem cheaper from a valuation standpoint.

Another thing to keep in mind is that the Mag 7’s breathtaking performance in the last few years occurred against a backdrop of insane fiscal and monetary policy. These bad decisions drove all asset prices, including these seven companies, higher at a rate that outpaced even the most bullish investors. Trillions of dollars printed and rates at zero. That is a bull market cocktail if I have ever seen one.

Thankfully, investors in the Mag 7 shouldn’t go cry in the corner for long. We are starting to return to the ridiculous bad policies. Charlie Bilello writes “the debt ceiling was raised by $5 trillion less than a year ago. And US national debt has already increased by over $3 trillion. At this pace, we’ll be back debating another “ceiling” in 2027.”

The US government can’t help themselves. They only know how to spend more and more money. It doesn’t matter how much funding they receive from taxes. If that can’t fund their dreams, they just print the balance. I doubt anyone with half a brain thinks it is sustainable to increase the national debt by $3 trillion per year, but here we are pretending like everything is fine while the house goes up in flames.

So the money printer is going to work hard to make sure investor portfolios keep growing to the sky. Don’t believe me? Just look at the S&P 500 over the Fed’s balance sheet. Not exactly what you want to see if you believed you were a stock market genius who didn’t rely on the Fed to create paper gains for your portfolio.

However, the more important question in my mind is whether there are data points from the companies themselves that give me confidence that brighter days could be ahead?

Absolutely.

Barry Schwartz writes the “S&P 500 profit margins [are] up 58% since 2011. Historical P/E multiples have zero relevance.” I tend to agree with Barry. It is hard to point to stock valuations before the iPhone was invented when you have trillion dollar companies growing revenue at 50% year-over-year.

This type of growth, at this scale, was previously unfathomable. But this is the result of a digital economy that benefits from capital and information moving at the speed of light. Everything happens faster, including companies making more money and valuations surging higher.

This acceleration creates outsized returns for investors. Bilello highlights “the S&P 500 is up 15.6% per year since the start of 2020, on pace for its strongest decade since the 1990s.”

It is hard for investors to complain about the destruction of the US dollar or the rise of the K-shaped economy when the root cause is also enriching them. Add in the fact that stocks, particularly the Mag 7, will continue to benefit from the US economy being artificially propped up by stimulus and you can quickly see why there is not much panic in the market.

Investors have been conditioned to believe the Fed and US government will essentially guarantee financial returns. You just have to be disciplined and courageous enough to risk your capital and then hold on for the ride.

Hope everyone has a great start to their week. I will talk to you next time.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

The Biggest Pivot In AI History Is Happening Right Now

Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack.

In this conversation, we discuss the AI pivot happening with hyperscalers, the rise of open source models, what the Mythos/Fable 5 situation means for governments and investors, Kevin Warsh's first Fed press conference, where inflation is actually headed, and why bitcoin is still in a bear market and what needs to change.

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You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

The finance industry historically separated investors into two buckets: institutional investors and retail investors. Institutions had a fiduciary duty to their capital providers and these organizations were largely thought of as “smart money.” Retail only had a duty to themselves and Wall Street largely thought of them as the suckers at the table.

I believe there is a third group of investors who are quickly taking markets by storm. I call them “Independent Investors.”

You can think of this group as the upper middle class of finance. They don’t have enough capital to qualify as an institution, nor do they have large teams of people working for them, but they are far wealthier and more sophisticated than the the traditional retail investor.

There are three aspects that qualify someone as an independent investor:

1. Think independently — these individuals don’t trust the mainstream media and largely get their information from X, YouTube, podcasts, newsletters and social media.

2. Act independently — these individuals don’t rely on financial advisors, RIAs, or wire houses. They want to control 100% of their money and win/lose based on their own decisions.

3. Chase independence — these individuals have convinced themselves they will not achieve their financial goals exclusively from their W2, so they view their investment portfolio as the path to financial security and independence.

These independent investors tend to be digital-natives with high income and 7 or 8-figure net worths. For example, we built Silvia to help independent investors use the latest AI technology to better manage their assets and portfolio. The average user connects more than $2.5 million in assets.

Regardless of the fact that independent investors are wealthy, sophisticated, and responsible for a growing percentage of all stock market trading volume, these individuals are still treated like second class citizens from the traditional finance players.

I want to change that. I personally believe the independent investor is going to rapidly impact financial markets, various assets, and public companies.

Because of that, I announced this morning that we are holding a conference in New York City on October 7th and 8th to bring independent investors together with public market CEOs and top macro investors.

Current speakers include:

1. GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen

2. Opendoor CEO Kaz Nejatian

3. 22V Research’s Jordi Visser

4. Ondas CEO Eric Brock

5. EMJ Capital’s Eric Jackson

6. RoboStrategy CEO Andrew Kang

7. and many, many others...

The goal with this conference is for you to hear directly from the leaders of these companies or investment firms. Meet them in-person. Ask them questions. Build a relationship. Learn from them and learn from each other.

Investing is a team sport where relationships, knowledge, and experience compounds over time. That is exactly what this conference (From The Desk Summit) is built to do.

For being loyal Pomp Letter readers, I come bearing two gifts for you:

1. You can use code “POMPLETTER” to get 50% off GA tickets to conference here

2. I am giving away 25 tickets for free to Pomp Letter readers. You can apply here to be one of the 25 winners.

So get your GA tickets 50% off or apply to get one of the 25 free tickets. I am looking forward to seeing everyone in October.

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Have a great day. I will talk to you next time.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

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To investors,

Elon Musk took SpaceX public last week. The stock has appreciated nearly 60% since the IPO, which helped the company cross the $3 trillion market cap milestone. Given this price appreciation, Elon made more money on paper yesterday than Warren Buffett has in his entire lifetime.

Yes, you read that right. Elon’s net worth increased by more than “a Warren Buffett” in the last 24 hours. Just insane. But Elon’s wealth is the least interesting story in my opinion.

The more important thing is that SpaceX just became the world’s first Mega Meme Stock.

First, to understand what is happening with SpaceX, you have to understand how the long-tail crypto market has worked for years. People would launch new coins, they would create a very low tradable float, and then they would solicit investor interest on social media. As those new investors fought over the scarce number of coins available in the market, the fully diluted value (FDV) of all coins went up substantially.

Once the price per coin reached a ludicrous level, the creator of the coin would start selling some of the previously illiquid coins they were holding. This allowed the creator to monetize the hype and momentum at valuation levels detached from reality, which would then lead to a significant drop in price for the coin. This digital game of hot potato rewarded the creator of the coin or the people who were able to time the market correctly, but it hurt the retail investors who were late to buying and slow to selling.

The reason you have to understand this situation is that SpaceX stock is benefitting from a very similar low float, high FDV scenario. In fact, experienced crypto investors identified this potential situation almost immediately and have been aggressively investing in SpaceX stock over the last few days.

X user Threadguy explains why he got interested in SpaceX stock:

“The reason that I got excited about SpaceX was, it’s the crypto strategy that we know all too well. It’s low float, high FDV on the greatest narrative of all time by the greatest bull poster of all time”

“If they launch this thing, fully diluted and everybody’s unlocked on day one, obviously you’re not touching it. But we watched in real time how Elon has structured it to push float super low at the beginning and lockups down the line.”

The Elon critics will claim this low float situation is merely another tactic from the world’s greatest entrepreneur to extract value from unsuspecting retail investors. They will screech that Elon has too much money and the stock liquidity structure should be investigated immediately by unknown organizations for unknown reasons.

But I have a different view of the situation.

SpaceX announced this morning they are acquiring Anysphere, the maker of Cursor, for approximately $60 billion in stock. This means SpaceX is buying one of the fastest growing AI companies, in one of the most important verticals (coding), for only ~ 2.5% dilution. That is a very savvy capital markets and corporate finance decision.

In addition to the Cursor acquisition, SpaceX is rumored to be considering a merger with Tesla as well. Elon recently said he thinks SpaceX would be doing more than $1 trillion in revenue by the end of the year. The only way he could get there given the current facts would be a merger with Tesla.

By having a high valuation, SpaceX reduces the dilution it would otherwise experience through a large merger with Tesla.

This brings me back to the world’s first Mega Meme Stock.

SpaceX is surging double-digit percentages every day as institutional investors, retail investors, and the media can’t look away. People would rather feel stupid for buying something that may be overvalued later, then feeling stupid for missing out. Human nature is undefeated.

The insatiable investor demand will not go to waste. Thankfully, Elon is going to use the IPO proceeds and high valuation to democratize intelligence, beam the internet down from space, colonize Mars, and invent the orbital data center industry.

The hype will be used to help humanity. He is going to turn attention and momentum into material solutions for some of the hardest problems we face. This is no different than a bubble needed to fund new industries, whether that was the Dot Com bubble, the cable bubble, the COVID bubble, the crypto bubble, or the housing bubble.

People get excited about the future and they invest their capital to help fund it being built. So SpaceX’s spectacular rise is actually a sign that Elon’s vision is more likely to occur than people originally gave him credit for.

Could SpaceX’s stock fall when insiders get their stock and are unlocked later this year? Sure, maybe. Many of those investors are long-term believers though so we may not see as much sell pressure as people think. Additionally, there is so much demand that the sell pressure will likely be eaten up quickly as investors trained to “buy the dip” do exactly that.

Lastly, I would expect Elon and SpaceX to use the increasing stock price to go on an acquisition spree. Cursor is the first one. Tesla is likely on the roadmap. But I wouldn’t be surprised if they start buying up companies or technologies related to AI, data centers, power generation, physical AI, and robotics.

Elon Musk has been clear about the future world he believes is inevitable. He has been diligently working to make it a reality for nearly 30 years. If he has the chance to consolidate resources and accelerate his timeline to achieving success, we have learned to never, ever bet against him.

I hope you all have a great day. I will talk to you next time.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

Should You Invest In SpaceX IPO, Elon Musk, Bitcoin or AI?

Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack.

In this conversation, we break down the SpaceX IPO, orbital data centers, and the critical minerals powering the AI buildout. We also discuss the AI model wars, why Jordi thinks Sam Altman won’t be running OpenAI within a year, and how the New York Knicks playoff run connects to the future of crypto and blockchain in a world of AI and deep fakes.

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You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

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To investors,

The SpaceX IPO launch saw a 20% stock price increase on Friday before closing at $160 per share, which drove the company’s market cap to $2.1 trillion. This is unsurprising given the rumors that the IPO was at least 4x oversubscribed. That means there was more than $300 billion of investor interest that SpaceX refrained from accepting during the fundraising process.

The other milestone achieved on Friday was that Elon Musk officially became the world’s first trillionaire. That is a very big number: $1,000,000,000,000. Twelve zeroes to be exact.

To put this amount of money in perspective, you and I are closer in wealth to Jeff Bezos, Larry Page, or Sergey Brin, than any of them are to Elon Musk.

Imagine being one of the five richest men in the world and realizing that Elon has 3x more money than you. That is insane.

But not everyone was excited for Elon Musk. In fact, there was a cast of characters publicly shaming Elon for his vast wealth. Bernie Sanders came out of swinging when he wrote:

“Elon Musk’s rise to trillionaire status is not a time to celebrate. It’s a call to action to take on the unprecedented income and wealth inequality that now exists and the greed and power of a ruling class that is destroying the social fabric of America.

Our democracy cannot survive when one man, who contributed $290 million to get Trump elected, becomes $700 billion richer since Trump’s election.

Our economy cannot sustain itself when one man owns more wealth than the bottom half of our society, when 60% of our people live paycheck to paycheck, when we have the highest rate of childhood poverty of any major nation and when our kids will have a lower standard of living than their parents.

This is not just about wealth. It’s about power. Musk and his fellow Oligarchs want it ALL.

Together, we must fight back. We can and must create an economy and a government that works for all of us, not just Elon Musk and his fellow billionaires.”

Here is the thing about Bernie’s commentary: he takes a kernel of truth and then extrapolates the conclusion out into a crazy socialist plan to confiscate private citizen’s wealth. Bernie is right that too many people live paycheck to paycheck, childhood poverty should be eradicated, and every parent wants their kid to have a better standard of living than themselves.

The problem is that Bernie doesn’t understand that capitalism is our only change to solve these problems. For example, SpaceX is creating nearly 5,000 millionaires as part of the IPO process, including cafeteria workers, welders, janitors, and other non-white collar roles.

Nvidia has created almost 30,000 millionaires who work at the company. Amazon and many other corporations are estimated to have created thousands of millionaires as well.

Whether we are talking about Elon Musk or any other private sector company, this wealth is being generated by growing the pie. Elon Musk did not need to make anyone poorer in order for him to create trillions of dollars in value for himself, his shareholders, and his employees.

More importantly, Elon has created his wealth by solving hard problems at scale. Tesla’s consumer car is one of the safest on the market, which has saved countless human lives. Combine the physical car’s safety with the innovative Full Self-Driving technology and you get a car that is objectively safer than anything else on the market.

SpaceX has not only brought down the cost of space launches, but as Bill Ackman wrote: “SpaceX and its technologies will cause an acceleration in the growth of wages and wealth creation globally, including in some of the poorest communities in the U.S. and around the world.

Access to low-cost, high speed communications everywhere will allow children around the world to be educated, families to build businesses, and life-saving medical knowledge and care to be available everywhere.”

This is the type of impact that billionaires (and trillionaires) are supposed to have. It is like a modern Batman that spends their money, time and energy trying to improve the lives of other people.

If Elon ran a non-profit, he would be hailed as the second coming of Mother Theresa for this type of positive impact. And we haven’t even talked about Neuralink helping the disabled, The Boring Company extracting people from wasted time in traffic, or the plethora of other projects he is involved in.

Now I understand that many people don’t like Elon because of politics. That is unfortunate, but that is how modern society works. Allegiances (and sometimes logic) is drawn by party affiliation. One of the big critiques of Elon from Democrats is that he wouldn’t have these companies, or the related wealth, without the help of the government. These critics insinuate that Elon got handouts in order to enrich himself.

I was not well informed on the details of what happened or didn’t happen with the government funding, so I spent time looking into it this weekend. The best explanation I found comes from @digitalsamiam when he wrote:

“Elon Musk was awarded (note: not given) cost-per-result contracts to perform a service for the US government. The total of those for SpaceX specifically is ~$22B, which includes repaid loans, state tax incentives, etc.

The deal was simple: put stuff into low earth orbit at or below a set cost. If SpaceX does it below the set cost, SpaceX keeps the difference. If it doesn’t, the company is responsible for the overrun.

End result? SpaceX & Elon lowered the cost of getting 1 kg into low earth orbit by 95-97% vs what NASA was paying previously.

And for the record, every other company around at the time was offered the same opportunity to bid on the contract - Musk/SpaceX just took it.

The handout narrative implies the taxpayer is the patron and SpaceX the dependent. The cost data shows the opposite: before SpaceX, NASA paid Russia’s Soyuz $80-86M per seat; SpaceX delivered at ~$55 million. SpaceX saved the US taxpayer $300M-$465M each year on that alone (the US sends 12-15 astronauts to space each year)

On the lunar lander, NASA estimated SpaceX’s fixed-price bid saved $20B-$30B vs the Boeing-preferred cost-plus approach.

So: SpaceX saved the US taxpayer more than the total value of contracts it earned on a single project, PLUS provided the US government with the requested services (put stuff in low earth orbit) at the best possible price.”

If this explanation is true, which it is to the best of my knowledge, then SpaceX was able to solve a hard problem at scale. The government didn’t give a handout, but rather they dangled an economic reward in front of the market for any company to capture if they could solve the stated challenge. That is how capitalism works. The entrepreneurs and companies that solve problems are given the economic reward.

This is why we need more trillionaires. The only way to make a trillion dollars is to solve an insanely hard problem at scale. You may have to solve multiple problems to reach that level of wealth. It is impossible to become a trillionaire without positively impacting millions and millions of people’s lives. You can’t inherit a trillion dollars. You can’t steal a trillion dollars. You only get a trillion dollars if you solve problems in society for millions of people.

So rather than attack people for succeeding, which is a very short-sighted and uninformed view, we should be encouraging everyone to solve bigger and harder problems. Maybe everyone can’t become a trillionaire, but almost anyone can become a millionaire by solving problems in their local community.

Grow the pie. Solve problems. Reward solutions. Celebrate success. That is how innovation, prosperity, and economic freedom are achieved. Let’s not lose sight of these hard truths.

I hope everyone has a great start to their week. I will talk to you next time.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

Should You Invest In SpaceX IPO, Elon Musk, Bitcoin or AI?

Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack.

In this conversation, we break down the SpaceX IPO, orbital data centers, and the critical minerals powering the AI buildout. We also discuss the AI model wars, why Jordi thinks Sam Altman won't be running OpenAI within a year, and how the New York Knicks playoff run connects to the future of crypto and blockchain in a world of AI and deep fakes.

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You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

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To investors,

SpaceX, the leading space company in the world, begins trading today. The company has raised $75 billion at a $1.77 trillion valuation as part of the IPO process. But the number one question investors have been asking me in recent days is “should I buy SpaceX when it starts trading?”

I dug deep into the data, so let’s unpack what I found.

The company is valued “at ~95x sales, SpaceX is going public at nearly 5x the Nvidia multiple and ~25x the S&P 500.”

That sounds expensive, right? Maybe. People have been claiming Tesla, Elon’s other company, is overvalued for almost 15 years. Since Tesla’s IPO, the stock has returned about 25,000% or approximately 40% compound annual growth rate. Not bad for a stock that was widely thought to have a catastrophic demise right around the corner.

But SpaceX is not Tesla. You can’t extrapolate the returns of one business to another. We know SpaceX has a monopoly on rocket launches. This has allowed them to service other clients, while also launching their own products into space. The most notable is Starlink, which promises to beam the internet down to consumers, where revenue is scaling aggressively inside the company.

Put aside the narrative of the company though. What does the data tell us about these types of IPOs for investors?

Creative Planning’s Charlie Bilello put together the top 25 IPOs of the last 15 years and shows the median return after 1-year has been -31%. The median max drawdown from the first day closing price has been over 50%.

Not exactly the performance that people will jump out of bed for. Those numbers are for the top 25 IPOs though. If we look at all IPOs, Peter Mallouk highlights “over the last 40+ years, the average US IPO returned just 6.0% annually in its first 3 years, roughly half the return of the broader US stock market.”

At least the performance is positive, but still not outperforming the market. Steven Rattner shows this underperformance by writing “day 1 returns are big for those who get allocation, but after the open, investors usually trail the market — by -4.4% for the largest public offerings.”

So why is everyone so excited about the SpaceX IPO? Obviously Elon is a big part of the story, but there are weird data points that support the first-day interest. For example, “IPOs with negative earnings have historically delivered roughly twice the first-day return of profitable ones.”

People also love scale. It dominates headlines and drives excitement. And there is nothing bigger than SpaceX when it comes to IPOs throughout history.

This brings us to the crux of the issue — investors who are looking at history and data may choose to refrain from investing. You can’t blame them. This would be a rational view to take. History shows mega IPOs have not been kind to investor portfolios.

But this is not a random mega IPO. We are talking about Elon Musk, the greatest entrepreneur of our lifetime. He disproved the haters over and over again with Tesla. People hated it and they claimed it was overvalued. They said it would go bankrupt.

Yet Tesla continued to find success. And there are a lot of investors who are willing to wager their capital that Elon can defy the haters once again. They aren’t buying SpaceX’s current metrics and financials, but instead willing to take risk by betting on Elon and the future vision he has for the company.

I can’t fault these investors for plowing their capital into SpaceX. They are being rational from their perspective too. So this is why SpaceX’s IPO has been heavily debated. Some people are looking at numbers and others are looking at a narrative.

Both sides are being rational from their perspective. The market will ultimately be the referee. You have to decide how you want to invest. Do you follow math or do you bet on people. Neither is right or wrong. It is going to come down to your personal strategy.

Regardless of your decision, we are watching the biggest show on Wall Street. SpaceX is finally going public after 25 years. Thousands of multi-millionaires are being created in the process. This is a massive win for American capitalism, the American economy, and the broader investment community.

Hope you all have a great end to your week. I will talk to you on Monday.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

The Biggest Bitcoin Myths — And Why They’re Dead Wrong

Chris Kline is the co-founder and COO of Bitcoin IRA.

In this conversation, we break down the biggest myths about bitcoin — including whether it’s too late to buy, whether it’s too volatile for retirement savings, and whether the government will ever ban it. We also discuss the strategic bitcoin reserve, quantum computing fears, and the convergence of AI and crypto.

Get Your Free After Crypto Guide Here: https://lp.bitcoinira.com/after-crypto

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To investors,

The 60/40 portfolio became the standard portfolio allocation for investors on the premise that these two assets were negatively correlated. When stocks go up, bonds go down. When stocks go down, bonds go up.

But what happens when this correlation breaks down?

The rolling 60-day stock and bond correlation has officially hit the highest level since 1999. The current correlation is approximately 0.7, which has not been seen in the last two and a half decades.

The most obvious reason this is happening is that inflation/supply-side risks have become the dominant market driver in the short term. We have disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, regional infrastructure has been degraded, and oil prices have surged higher.

These issues create higher inflation expectations. We can’t return to negative correlations until inflation expectations come down. In the meantime, there are four main ramifications to watch for:

1. Bonds can’t be relied on as a hedge

2. Market volatility will increase

3. Downside risk is amplified

4. The Fed has less options at their disposal

My big takeaway from this situation is that investors are getting hit with a double-whammy. First, they are confused why public equities keep ripping higher as part of the AI trade, which is tempting them to chase momentum and pour more capital into the popular stocks. At the same time, investors are watching bonds, the perceived hedge in their portfolio, lose its ability to protect them against a public market downturn.

Another way to think about it is that bonds are becoming ineffective at the exact moment that investors potentially need them most. Now, if you are like me and believe stocks are going much higher, you may not care about the higher correlation between stocks and bonds.

When everything is going up together, investors are becoming very rich on paper. The returns are intoxicating. People start believing they are a genius. Few people care about hedges, risk, or correlations.

But as we know, there will be a day when those things matter again.

No one knows if it will be days, weeks, months or years. But markets run in cycles. There are good times and bad times. Although I am a believer in innovation, technology, public stocks, and bitcoin, I still acknowledge that portfolio construction, especially non-correlations, are a timeless idea for a reason.

Bonds have been a horrible investment for some time. Equities have been on an incredible tear at the same time. So when both assets start moving in lockstep, that may be the time to pay extra attention.

Hope everyone has a great day. I will talk to you next time.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

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The Biggest Bitcoin Myths — And Why They're Dead Wrong

Chris Kline is the co-founder and COO of Bitcoin IRA.

In this conversation, we break down the biggest myths about bitcoin — including whether it's too late to buy, whether it's too volatile for retirement savings, and whether the government will ever ban it. We also discuss the strategic bitcoin reserve, quantum computing fears, and the convergence of AI and crypto.

Get Your Free After Crypto Guide Here: https://lp.bitcoinira.com/after-crypto

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You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

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To investors,

The market is preparing for a ridiculous melt-up in asset prices. At least that is what history tells us is likely to happen over the next year.

Carson Group’s Ryan Detrick writes “The S&P 500 recently was up more than 19% in two months. You ready for this one? That has only happened seven other times and stocks were never lower 1 month, 3 months, 6 months, or a year later. In fact, up more than 40% on average a year later. My oh my.”

This type of return would have been unfathomable just a few weeks ago when everyone was freaking out over the Iran war, but things can change rapidly in a digitally-connected world where capital and information move at the speed of light.

For example, only 34 times in history has the S&P 500 has gone down 2% in a single day following a 10%+ move over the preceding 13 weeks. Over the next 12 months, the stock market was higher 29 of the 34 times and the average return over the next year was 17%.

An easy way to see the ramifications of this volatility is through the misunderstanding of stock market returns. You will hear people constantly quote the S&P 500’s average return around 8%, but the truth is the index has done significantly better than that.

Creative Planning’s Peter Mallouk highlights “the S&P 500 has returned an average of 12% per year since 1980 and has done so despite an average intra-year drawdown of 14%, and often drawdowns that are much worse.”

There are various reasons for the outperformance, including persistently higher inflation, rapid innovation in the economy, and a larger number of investors with access to the stock market. Regardless of the root cause, there is incredible wealth being created by public equities and history is telling us to prepare for even better returns over the next 12 months.

Momentum is not the only thing telling us a melt-up is coming. Charlie Bilello shows “S&P 500 earnings are now expected to increase by 25% this year.” He says “we’ve never seen earnings growth this high outside of post-recessionary rebounds. An unprecedented boom fueled by massive EPS gains in big tech.”

We are seeing signs of a market melt-up outside of public equities as well. For example, Benjamin Cowen shows the bitcoin market has just hit an important bear market milestone where the supply of bitcoin held at a loss has become a larger percent of the market than the supply of bitcoin held at a profit.

He writes “you start looking for major market cycle bottoms *after* they cross, not before.”

If this signal holds the historical accuracy, it would show the most pure macro asset (bitcoin) is near a bear market bottom, which would likely produce significant returns over the next 12-24 months.

Whenever I see multiple markets lining up for potential explosive returns, I start to pay attention. Add in the backdrop of Kevin Warsh stepping in as the new Federal Reserve Chairman with the explicit focus on lowering interest rates and you have all the ingredients you need for the market to melt up.

The bears will disagree, which is fine. That is how markets are made. But stocks are going higher because AI is real and the dollar is fake. There really is no other way to put it.

I hope you all have a great start to your week. I will talk to everyone next time.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

P.S. Go Knicks! :)

Why Is Bitcoin CRASHING?!

Jordi Visser is a veteran macro investor with 30+ years of experience and the author of the VisserLabs Substack.

In this conversation, we discuss why bitcoin is down 50% and whether the bear market is over, why he's still buying through the dip, how AI agents will drive bitcoin adoption, and why the rotation from AI hardware to human software is the biggest investment opportunity right now.

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You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

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To investors,

Michael Saylor and Strategy have purchased over 840,000 bitcoin in the last half decade. In pursuit of accumulating as many bitcoin as possible, the Strategy team has innovated on a number of capital market tools.

Their most recent offering, STRC, is a preferred equity instrument that pays a double-digit variable interest rate. Proceeds from the preferred equity raises are allocated to a bitcoin reserve and a dollar reserve. The idea is that bitcoin’s price will appreciate at a faster pace than the dividend obligation, which gives Strategy common equity holders exposure to the difference.

Saylor has coined this idea as “digital credit” and there have been billions of dollars allocated to the preferred equity instrument in less than a year. As we know, when something works on Wall Street, there are fast followers who rush to capitalize on the trend.

In this case, Matt Cole and Strive Asset Management have been the big winners of second place. They came to market with a similar instrument, except they pay a higher interest rate and are implementing daily dividend payments. You can imagine why this has been attractive for investors.

I am fascinated by the idea of digital credit. If Saylor and Cole are right, we will see an explosion of digital credit offerings that leverage bitcoin to create returns, while stripping out the bitcoin volatility for fixed income investors. The global credit market is very big and if digital credit works, you could expect hundreds of billions of dollars to flow to the assets.

But this idea does not come without risk. The big question is what happens if bitcoin doesn’t appreciate at the required CAGR, but there are also nuanced aspects of managing the issuance process, along with the bitcoin and cash reserves, that require investors to underwrite potential risks.

In order to better understand digital credit and the risks associated with this new innovation, I sat down with Strive CEO Matt Cole for an unfiltered conversation. He was very transparent about the pros and cons, how Strive and Strategy differ, and why he thinks this idea is even bigger than his team realized initially.

You can listen to the conversation here or you can watch it here on YouTube.

If you do not have time to listen or watch, here are the 10 big ideas from the conversation:

1. Digital Credit Is a Bridge Between Fiat and Bitcoin

• Cole’s biggest thesis is that digital credit is not merely a financing tool but a transitional asset that helps investors move from a fiat-based world to a Bitcoin-based future.

• He believes sovereign debt problems will continue to worsen over time, making Bitcoin increasingly attractive.

• Digital credit allows investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin’s long-term appreciation while receiving income and avoiding some of Bitcoin’s volatility.

2. The Core Structure Is a Bitcoin-Backed Carry Trade

• Strive raises capital through preferred equity instruments that pay investors a yield.

• The company then buys Bitcoin with the proceeds.

• The entire strategy works if Bitcoin appreciates faster than the cost of capital being paid to investors.

• Cole frames this as a simple spread trade: if Bitcoin compounds above the financing cost, common shareholders benefit substantially.

3. Digital Credit Solves a Massive Yield Problem

• Cole argues that traditional fixed income has become increasingly unattractive.

• Many investors agree the classic 60/40 portfolio is no longer as effective as it once was.

• He believes digital credit could become a compelling replacement for part of the bond allocation because it offers double-digit yields while maintaining exposure to Bitcoin-driven economics.

4. Daily Dividends Could Transform the Product Category

• One of Strive’s innovations is moving from monthly dividends to daily dividends.

• Cole believes this reduces volatility around dividend dates and makes the instrument behave more like a savings account or money market fund.

• His goal is to make digital credit feel like a continuously compounding income-generating asset rather than a traditional security with periodic payout events.

5. The Biggest Risk Is a Prolonged Bitcoin Failure

• Cole acknowledges there are many disclosed risks, but he views one risk as dominant: Bitcoin failing to appreciate over a very long period.

• He explains that Strive has substantial cash reserves and dividend reserves specifically designed to survive severe Bitcoin bear markets.

• In his view, investors must ultimately decide whether they believe Bitcoin’s long-term thesis remains intact.

6. Digital Credit Is Designed for People Who Cannot Handle Bitcoin Volatility

• Cole repeatedly emphasizes that he personally prefers owning Bitcoin and leveraged Bitcoin exposure.

• However, he recognizes most investors cannot emotionally or financially tolerate Bitcoin’s volatility.

• Digital credit offers those investors a way to participate in the Bitcoin ecosystem while receiving stable income and experiencing significantly lower volatility.

7. Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin Sale Was a Positive Evolution

• Cole argues that Strategy’s decision to sell a small amount of Bitcoin was misunderstood.

• Rather than viewing it as surrender, he sees it as evidence of disciplined capital allocation.

• He believes the ability to occasionally sell Bitcoin for tax optimization or strategic purposes ultimately strengthens the company and reduces long-term risk.

8. Institutional Adoption Is Still in the Very Early Stages

• Cole believes both Bitcoin ETFs and digital credit products are still building track records.

• He notes that institutions typically require several years of performance history before making meaningful allocations.

• He expects adoption to accelerate significantly between 2027 and 2029 as institutions become more comfortable with the products.

9. Tokenization Could Turn Digital Credit into an Alternative Form of Money

• One of the most forward-looking parts of the discussion focuses on tokenization.

• Cole envisions a future where digital credit is tokenized, pays near-continuous dividends, and integrates with debit cards, banking products, and payment systems.

• In that world, people may increasingly hold digital credit rather than cash, effectively creating a new form of financial infrastructure.

10. Competition Makes the Ecosystem Stronger

• Cole rejects the idea that only one issuer should dominate the digital credit market.

• He argues that competition between firms like Strive and Strategy drives innovation, improves products, and ultimately expands the overall market.

• His view is that dozens of issuers, not just one or two, will eventually create a healthier and more resilient Bitcoin-backed credit ecosystem.

Key Takeaway

The central idea of the conversation is that digital credit could become the financial bridge between the existing dollar-based economy and a future Bitcoin-based economy. Cole believes investors want three things simultaneously: Bitcoin exposure, income, and lower volatility. His thesis is that digital credit is one of the first products capable of delivering all three, potentially making it a major asset class over the coming decades.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

Podcast Sponsors

1. Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.

2. Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)

3. BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $2,000 in rewards.

4. Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp

5. Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com

6. Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold

7. Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.

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To investors,

An investment has to have three components to present an attractive risk-reward of true asymmetry:

1. A breakthrough technological innovation

2. A small market with potential to grow into a mega market in the future

3. An early cohort of missionary founders/investors hyper-focused on disproving the non-believers

The most obvious example of these components coming together over the last decade was bitcoin and crypto. The results speak for themselves as the industry presented one of the best financial returns for investors. I am obviously a very big believer in bitcoin and continue to see a bright future for the asset.

But I also understand that the significant asymmetry has dissipated as bitcoin has become bigger and received more adoption in the institutional world.

So what is the next market where asymmetry exists? What type of opportunity has the three key components for an attractive risk-reward?

Physical AI and robotics.

This is a corner of the artificial intelligence industry that is often overlooked and under-discussed. A big reason is that almost every company is in the private market and still relatively small. In addition, reporters or market commentators can easily use Chat-GPT, Claude, or other software products, but it is much harder for robotics to stay top of mind when people are not using them on a daily basis (yet!).

In order to understand the opportunity set better, I recently interviewed Andrew Kang, CEO of Robostrategy (Nasdaq: BOT), to get his take on what is happening in the industry. For those that don’t know, Andrew is one of the best investors in the world over the last decade, yet he is relatively unknown to the mainstream audience.

His 400,000 followers on X are constantly looking to him for insights on the next investing themes and trends, which is why Andrew’s decision to launch a publicly-traded fund that gives exposure to the top private robotics companies is so interesting.

After talking to Andrew, I made an investment in Robostrategy because I believe their portfolio contains many great assets and I have confidence that his team of robotic experts will continue to find the next great humanoid or robot-related companies.

You can listen to the interview here or you can watch the interview on YouTube. You can check out Robostrategy’s website here.

I asked Chat-GPT to summarize my conversation with Andrew. Here is the summary:

• Humanoid Robots Are Much Closer Than Most People Realize

  • Kang argues that humanoid robots are no longer a distant sci-fi concept. He believes society will begin seeing robots integrated into everyday life within the next 3–5 years. These robots will work in factories, restaurants, warehouses, and eventually homes because they are adaptable to the same environments humans already operate in.

• The Total Market Opportunity Is Measured in Tens of Trillions of Dollars

  • One of Kang’s core investment theses is that humanoid robots will replace a meaningful portion of human labor, which represents roughly half of global GDP. He walks through simple economics: if a robot costs ~$50,000 and can perform the work of multiple humans at a cost of roughly $2 per hour, the economic incentive for adoption becomes overwhelming. He believes leading robotics companies could eventually reach multi-trillion-dollar valuations.

• Artificial Intelligence Was the Missing Piece

  • Historically, robotics struggled because machines lacked intelligence. Kang explains that advances in large language models and AI systems changed the equation. In his view, physical intelligence is now following digital intelligence. Once robots can understand their environment and adapt to changing conditions, many of the historical barriers to adoption disappear.

• Why He Made Massive Investments Into Figure AI

  • Kang describes how most venture capitalists initially discouraged him from investing in Figure AI. He believed investors were anchored to decades of disappointing robotics outcomes and underestimated how AI would transform the industry. After extensive research, he increased his exposure dramatically because he became convinced Figure had assembled one of the strongest teams in the world and was executing faster than competitors.

• The United States vs. China Robotics Race

  • A substantial portion of the conversation focuses on geopolitical competition. Kang acknowledges China’s dominance in manufacturing and hardware supply chains, but argues that the United States currently has an advantage in advanced AI and robot intelligence. He believes the winning robotics companies will need excellence in three areas: manufacturing, hardware design, and AI. His view is that China may produce many robots, but American firms could still create the most shareholder value.

• Robots Will Cause Massive Labor Displacement

  • Unlike many technology executives who emphasize job creation, Kang is unusually direct about employment risks. He believes AI and robotics will eventually replace both physical labor and many cognitive jobs. Since robots may ultimately surpass humans in both domains, he argues that society will need entirely new economic safety nets. Universal Basic Income (UBI) is one solution he repeatedly mentions as a likely necessity.

• The Future Home Will Include Humanoid Assistants

  • Kang expects humanoids to become common household products. He envisions robots cleaning homes, helping with chores, assisting elderly family members, and eventually serving as personal assistants. He compares future human-robot relationships to how people already interact with ChatGPT and other AI systems, suggesting that emotional attachment and trust in machines will become increasingly normal.

• Training Data Is Less of a Constraint Than People Think

  • The conversation explores how robots learn. While some companies are collecting real-world training data through teleoperation and human demonstrations, Kang argues that advances in video models and world models have changed the landscape. Robots can learn from enormous amounts of internet video data, reducing the need to manually collect every piece of training information from scratch.

• Robotics Investing Could Mirror the AI Boom

  • Kang believes robotics today resembles AI a few years ago. Just as a handful of AI companies like OpenAI and Anthropic generated extraordinary value, he expects a small number of robotics firms to emerge as dominant winners. This conviction led him to create Robo Strategy, a publicly traded investment vehicle designed to provide broad investor exposure to the sector.

• Robo Strategy’s Goal Is Bigger Than a Typical Venture Fund

  • Kang explains that Robo Strategy is not simply a collection of robotics investments. His vision is to create one of the largest robotics-focused investment platforms in the world. By using public markets rather than traditional venture capital structures, he hopes to raise far more capital, provide retail investors access to private robotics companies, and potentially reshape how venture capital itself operates in the future.

Key Takeaway

The overarching message of the podcast is that humanoid robotics is the next major technological platform shift after AI. Andrew Kang believes most investors are dramatically underestimating both the speed of adoption and the scale of economic value creation. His thesis is that robots will eventually become as commonplace as smartphones, fundamentally changing labor markets, business operations, and everyday life while creating some of the largest companies in history.

- Anthony J. Pompliano

Founder & CEO, ProCap Financial (Nasdaq: BRR)

Podcast Sponsors

1. Figure – True DeFi Democratized Prime to earn ~9% APY! They also have the lowest industry interest rates at 8.91% with 12 month terms! Take out a Bitcoin Backed Loan today and buy more Bitcoin. Check out Figure! Figure Lending LLC dba Figure. Equal Opportunity Lender. NMLS 1717824. Terms and conditions apply.

2. Arch Public - Arch Public’s cutting-edge algorithmic tools ignite profits, harnessing razor-sharp data analytics to nail perfect entries, exits, and risk management. Turn volatility into opportunity and do it hands free with Arch Public. (Oh, and yes, try us out for FREE too!)

3. BitcoinIRA - Buy, sell, and swap 80+ cryptocurrencies in your retirement account. Pay less taxes. Earn up to $2,000 in rewards.

4. Simple Mining offers a premium white-glove Bitcoin mining service. Want to grow your Bitcoin stack? Visit https://www.simplemining.io/pomp

5. Uphold - Uphold is the all-in-one platform to trade, earn, stake, and swap across 300+ assets with real-time proof-of-reserves and any-to-any conversions. Manage your entire crypto portfolio in one place at www.uphold.com

6. Bitget - Bitget is the world’s largest Universal Exchange (UEX), serving over 125 million users with access to over 2M+ crypto tokens, and TradFi markets such as 100+ tokenized stocks, ETFs, commodities, FX and precious metal like Gold

7. Award-winning Fountain Life - Energy supercharged. Memory sharper. Life extended. Ready for the best investment you’ll ever make? Schedule a life-changing call at www.FountainLife.com

You are receiving The Pomp Letter because you either signed up or you attended one of the events that I spoke at. Feel free to unsubscribe if you aren’t finding this valuable. Nothing in this email is intended to serve as financial advice. Do your own research.